The electorate changed since 2020's presidential election. What's it mean for 2024?
A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
There are a handful of states that any and everyone involved in politics is watching this election season. They're being watched because they were all close calls in 2020, and they're expected to be tight again this year. But the people who vote in those states have changed over the years, and that's affected American politics as a whole. NPR senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro has been diving into the data. Domenico, dive out for a second...
DOMENICO MONTANARO, BYLINE: (Laughter).
MARTÍNEZ: ...So you can tell us what the biggest demographic change you've been seeing.
MONTANARO: Well, I'd point to two things - first, the continued decline of white voters without college degrees and second, the rise in Latinos and Asian Americans.
MARTÍNEZ: All right, so how are those two factors changing things?
MONTANARO: Well, when it comes to white, noncollege voters in 2008, they were a majority of all voters in the country, but since then, they've declined by more than 10 points. That's because more people are acquiring college degrees, and more Latinos in particular are coming of voting age. That's had a huge impact in the Sun Belt states. We're seeing faster diversification there than anywhere else. And it's why places like Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina have become winnable for Democrats. That trend is just going to continue because, as of right now, a majority of those under 18 are nonwhite, and - get this - Gen Z is forecast to be the last generation that is majority white.
MARTÍNEZ: OK. So white voters without college or university degrees are the core part of President - former President Trump's base. So does this data make it more difficult for him to win?
MONTANARO: In theory, it does, but in practice, it's not so simple. You know, white, noncollege voters are among the least likely to vote. But Trump has used demographic change to fire up these voters and say the country as we know it is changing too quickly, that their way of life is under threat, and his campaign believes he can turn out even more of them this year. That did hold true in 2020 because they wound up making up a higher share of the people who actually voted in all seven swing states than they did in 2016, but Trump still lost. And that's because Joe Biden cut into Trump's margins with the group. And, importantly, he did better with college-educated white voters than Hillary Clinton did, Democrat in 2016.
MARTÍNEZ: So wouldn't that then present a challenge for Vice President Kamala Harris to try and match what Joe Biden did with those voters?
MONTANARO: Yeah. I mean, it does, but white voters with degrees are also continuing to become a larger share of the eligible voting population. And polling has shown Harris doing well with the group, especially because they say abortion rights in particular has been such an important issue for them. This has been very important as a shift in the blue wall states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. White voters there make up a higher percentage of the population than in the Sun Belt. But younger people in those states are more likely now than ever to have a college degree because it's much rarer now, say, than 30 years ago for someone to be able to get a factory job after high school, make a good enough living to own a home, two cars, and support a family.
MARTÍNEZ: Yeah. Earlier, Domenico, you mentioned Latino and Asian American voters. So what are you seeing about how and where they're making a difference?
MONTANARO: Yeah. Latinos and AAPI voters are most critical in the Southwestern swing states, Arizona and Nevada. AAPI voters, in fact, are almost 10% of eligible voters in Nevada now, so that could make a huge difference in this election. And it's not just the Southwest, though. Latinos are considerably up in Georgia and North Carolina, too. Of course, Georgia is really in play because Democrats - for Democrats there because Black migration to the Atlanta area has gone way up, and Black voters there are now a third of eligible voters. These changes are why you've seen Trump's team, for example, try to appeal to younger Black and Latino men and why Harris' team has renewed hope that they can fire up these groups and help her get across the finish line.
MARTÍNEZ: All right, Domenico, dive back into that data pool.
MONTANARO: (Laughter).
MARTÍNEZ: We'll fish you out the next time (laughter). NPR's Domenico Montanaro, thanks.
MONTANARO: Sounds good. Good to be with you.
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