Why a racist conspiracy theory may play a key role if Trump questions the vote
ARI SHAPIRO, HOST:
One of former President Trump's key talking points in this election year has its roots in an old conspiracy theory. For years, that theory was relegated to the fringes of the internet among white nationalist groups. Last week Trump brought it up at the ABC News presidential debate, speaking about migrants to the U.S.
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DONALD TRUMP: They can't even speak English. They don't even know what country they're in, practically. And these people are trying to get them to vote, and that's why they're allowing them to come into our country.
SHAPIRO: Now, there is no evidence that there is any effort to get migrants to vote illegally in federal elections. We are joined by Jude Joffe-Block, who's been covering false narratives about non-citizen voting. Hi there.
JUDE JOFFE-BLOCK, BYLINE: Hello.
SHAPIRO: Tell us more about the conspiracy theory behind Trump's claim and how far it's penetrated in Republican circles.
JOFFE-BLOCK: Yeah. It's known as Great Replacement theory, and it's long been a fringe conspiracy theory. It's become much more mainstream in recent years in the Republican Party. And the claim behind it is that elites are deliberately bringing in people of color from other countries to replace white people, dilute their votes, to advance a political agenda. And look. There's clearly immigration and demographic change, but there's no evidence this is a deliberate plot. Yet polling from a couple years ago found that 1 in 3 American adults now believes some version of this theory.
SHAPIRO: Well, given that this theory is tied to white nationalist ideologies, have these false claims been tied to violence?
JOFFE-BLOCK: Yes, and that has a lot of people worried. In several recent mass shootings, both here and in other countries, the perpetrator was inspired by replacement theory. My colleague, domestic extremism correspondent Odette Yousef, spoke with Cynthia Miller-Idriss about this. She's a professor at American University and the founding director of the Polarization and Extremism Research and Innovation Lab, and she connected the conspiracy theory to another false claim Trump made during the debate about Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio.
CYNTHIA MILLER-IDRISS: Votes are being stolen. Your election's been stolen. Now your pets are being stolen and then eaten, right? I mean, it's so absurd to hear it go to the pets, but it's the same thing. You know, there's always something that's being taken away from you and unfairly given to someone else.
JOFFE-BLOCK: And in the aftermath of those comments about pets, there's been bomb threats in Springfield, Ohio, and, of course, just yesterday, a second apparent assassination attempt against Trump.
SHAPIRO: Which, of course, we're still learning about the motives behind. But beyond worries about violence, is this having an impact on voters and voting laws?
JOFFE-BLOCK: Well, the baseless claim that Democrats are trying to bring in migrants to vote illegally - it's been used by congressional Republicans to promote legislation that would require documentary proof of citizenship to register to vote in federal elections. But it's estimated that millions of Americans don't have easy access to a birth certificate or a passport, and it would make it harder for these eligible citizens to participate. Opponents to the bill point out that non-citizen voting in federal elections is already illegal, and studies show non-citizen voting has happened only in very small numbers in the past.
At the state level, some states have flagged potential non-citizens on their voter roles. But these efforts have entangled U.S. citizens, and it's caused confusion. And in some cases, it's required voters to take extra steps to ensure they can vote.
SHAPIRO: Well, looking ahead to November, how worried are experts that these narratives could become the basis to cast doubt on election results?
JOFFE-BLOCK: This is absolutely a concern. That the focus on the alleged threat of non-citizens swaying the elections now, before any votes have even been cast - it's laying the groundwork for Trump and his allies to challenge the outcome if Trump loses.
SHAPIRO: That's NPR's Jude Joffe-Block. Thank you.
JOFFE-BLOCK: Thank you.
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