Global stocks are gaining, if not at the pace of domestic equities. While the S&P 500 has risen 17% year to date, the EAFA index of large- and mid-cap stocks based in countries other than the U.S. and Canada has gained 9.5%. Over the past five years, the performance gap has been wider, with the S&P 500 advancing 94% compared to a 32% gain in EAFE. But the underperformance has given global stocks a valuation advantage, particularly in the area of dividends. Consider that the EAFE dividend yield of 2.9% is 170 basis points higher than the comparable S&P 500 dividend yield. We think global dividend stocks now offer opportunity, particularly given the endless speculation over the direction of interest rates in the U.S., which has created market-timing headaches for equity income investors, who have endured recent wide swings in prices for rate-sensitive equity in areas such as utilities, REITs and MLPs. In our view, investing in international income stocks is one way to increase portfolio diversification while reducing sensitivity to volatile U.S. interest rates. Investing in overseas stocks carries its own set of risks, including the impact of currency exchange and geopolitical turmoil. But there are also a number of positives in this asset class for U.S. investors, including a wide selection of companies that pay dividends, robust industry diversification, and, as we have mentioned, higher yields and lower valuations. Argus has recently boosted its global coverage, and recommends the following international dividend stocks, each of which has at least a long-term BUY rating from an Argus analyst. Note this list of approximately 25-30 companies offers exposure to eight of the 11 major industrial sectors. The list includes companies from 10 countries.

Shell is an integrated oil and gas company that explores for, produces, and refines oil around the world. In 2023, it produced 1.5 million barrels of liquids and 7.3 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day. At end-2023, reserves stood at 9.6 billion barrels of oil equivalent, 49% of which, consisted of liquids. Its production and reserves are in Europe, Asia, Oceania, Africa, and North and South America. The company operates refineries with capacity of 1.6 mmb/d located in the Americas, Asia, Africa, and Europe and sells about 12 million tons per year of chemicals. Its largest chemical plants, often integrated with its local refineries, are in Central Europe, China, Singapore, and North America.

The current price of a barrel of the crude oil benchmark grade West Texas Intermediate has fallen below the $80 level, as we expected. That's down from a high near $90 in April but still up 8% from the start of the year. We look for prices to stabilize at these levels for the next few quarters (even as global economic growth remains under pressure due to high interest rates) as future production rates are starting to be scaled back. We look for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil in 2024 to average $80, in line with last year's average price of $80, with a trading range of $90-$70 for the year. The core drivers behind oil prices in the long term are indeed global demand and global supply. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, there was modest excess demand in 2023: global consumption was 101.9 million barrels per day, while global production was 101.8 million barrels. Forecasts for the balance of 2024 and 2025 now call for demand to exceed supply, which is likely to provide a floor to oil prices. Of course, there are always wild cards such as geopolitical developments, ranging from wars (i.e., Russia's invasion of Ukraine), to sanctions (Iran, Venezuela), to turmoil in the Middle East, to the U.S. presidential election. The growth path of the Chinese economy also plays an outsize role in the direction of oil prices. These wild cards can cause prices to fluctuate dramatically. That said, absent the wild cards, the global demand-supply outlook suggests the days of triple-digit oil prices are in the rear-view mirror as the world economy pivots toward cleaner energy solutions.

Shell plc is an Anglo-Dutch multinational oil and gas company. The firm was created by the merger of Royal Dutch Petroleum and UK-based Shell Transport & Trading. It is the seventh-largest company in the world in terms of revenue and one of the six oil and gas 'supermajors'.