Prediction Machines Quotes

“We are narrow thinkers, we are noisy thinkers, and it is very easy to improve upon us.”
― ajay agrawal, Prediction Machines: The Simple Economics of Artificial Intelligence

“Having better prediction raises the value of judgment. After all, it doesn’t help to know the likelihood of rain if you don’t know how much you like staying dry or how much you hate carrying an umbrella. Prediction machines don’t provide judgment. Only humans do, because only humans can express the relative rewards from taking different actions. As AI takes over prediction, humans will do less of the combined prediction-judgment routine of decision making and focus more on the judgment role alone.”
― Ajay Agrawal, Prediction Machines: The Simple Economics of Artificial Intelligence

“Prediction Machines is not a recipe for success in the AI economy. Instead, we emphasize trade-offs. More data means less privacy. More speed means less accuracy. More autonomy means less control.”
― Ajay Agrawal, Prediction Machines: The Simple Economics of Artificial Intelligence

“Before machine learning, multivariate regression provided an efficient way to condition on multiple things, without the need to calculate dozens, hundreds, or thousands of conditional averages. Regression takes the data and tries to find the result that minimizes prediction mistakes, maximizing what is called “goodness of fit.”
― Ajay Agrawal, Prediction Machines: The Simple Economics of Artificial Intelligence

“the new wave of artificial intelligence does not actually bring us intelligence but instead a critical component of intelligence—prediction.”
― ajay agrawal, Prediction Machines: The Simple Economics of Artificial Intelligence

“During the shopping process, Amazon’s AI offers suggestions of items that it predicts you will want to buy. The AI does a reasonable job. However, it is far from perfect. In our case, the AI accurately predicts what we want to buy about 5 percent of the time. We actually purchase about one of every twenty items it recommends. Considering the millions of items on offer, that’s not bad!”
― Ajay Agrawal, Prediction Machines: The Simple Economics of Artificial Intelligence

“What will new AI technologies make so cheap? Prediction. Therefore, as economics tells us, not only are we going to start using a lot more prediction, but we are going to see it emerge in surprising new places.”
― Ajay Agrawal, Prediction Machines: The Simple Economics of Artificial Intelligence

“What does regression do? It finds a prediction based on the average of what has occurred in the past. For instance, if all you have to go on to determine whether it is going to rain tomorrow is what happened each day last week, your best guess might be an average. If it rained on two of the last seven days, you might predict that the probability of rain tomorrow is around two in seven, or 29 percent. Much of what we know about prediction has been making our calculations of the average better by building models that can take in more data about the context.”
― Ajay Agrawal, Prediction Machines: The Simple Economics of Artificial Intelligence

“As AI takes over prediction, humans will do less of the combined prediction-judgment routine of decision making and focus more on the judgment role alone.”
― Ajay Agrawal, Prediction Machines: The Simple Economics of Artificial Intelligence

“People who have never missed a flight have spent too long in airports.”
― Ajay Agrawal, Prediction Machines: The Simple Economics of Artificial Intelligence