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2024 United States presidential election in Mississippi

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Main article: 2024 United States presidential election
2024 United States presidential election in Mississippi
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
 
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida California
Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz
Incumbent President

Joe Biden
Democratic



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The 2024 United States presidential election in Mississippi is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Mississippi voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. Mississippi's six votes in the Electoral College were unaffected by reapportionment after the 2020 United States census.[1]

Though Mississippi has voted to the left of its bordering states in recent presidential elections, owing mainly to its large African-American minority, the state is located in the Deep South and therefore the Bible Belt. One of the most socially conservative states in the nation, it has not been won by a Democratic presidential candidate since Southerner Jimmy Carter's narrow statewide victory in 1976, nor has it been competitive at this level since Bill Clinton of neighboring Arkansas fell five points short of carrying the state in 1996.

Donald Trump, who is running on the Republican ballot for a third consecutive time, easily handled Mississippi in the past two election cycles, winning the state by 17.8% in 2016 and again by 16.5% four years later. He is widely expected to comfortably carry Mississippi once again in 2024.

In the 2024 election cycle, incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden was running for reelection to a second term and became the party's presumptive nominee but withdrew from the race on July 21.[2][3] He then endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day.[4] The Republican nominee is former president Donald Trump.[5] Independent Attorney Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has received the nomination of the Reform Party of the United States of America, which has ballot access in the state.[6]

Primary elections

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Republican primary

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Main article: 2024 Mississippi Republican presidential primary

The Mississippi Republican primary was held on March 12, 2024, alongside primaries in Hawaii, Idaho, Missouri, and Washington. 40 delegates to the Republican National Convention will be allocated to presidential candidates.[7]

Mississippi Republican primary, March 12, 2024[8]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 229,198 92.50% 40 0 40
Nikki Haley (withdrawn) 13,437 5.42% 0 0 0
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) 4,042 1.63% 0 0 0
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) 1,096 0.44% 0 0 0
Total: 247,773 100.00% 40 0 40

Democratic primary

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Main article: 2024 Mississippi Democratic presidential primary

The 2024 Mississippi Democratic presidential primary was held on March 12, 2024, alongside the Democrats Abroad, Georgia, Mississippi, and Washington primaries, and Northern Mariana Islands caucuses. 40 delegates to the Democratic National Convention will be allocated to presidential candidates.[9]

In Mississippi, candidates have to pay a filing fee of $2,500 and gather at least 500 signatures to make the primary ballot.[10] Incumbent President Joe Biden won the primary, being the only candidate that met these requirements.[11][better source needed]

Winner

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Results

Mississippi Democratic primary, March 12, 2024[12]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 87,922 98.7% 35
Write-in votes 1,187 1.3%
Total: 89,109 100.00% 35 35


Libertarian caucuses

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Main article: 2024 Libertarian Party presidential primaries

The Mississippi Libertarian caucuses were held on February 27, 2024. Author and former New York University professor, Michael Rectenwald from Pennsylvania won the non-binding preferential vote with 41.2% of the vote.

2024 Mississippi Libertarian presidential caucuses
← 2020 February 24, 2024 2028 →
← IA
MN →
 
Candidate Michael Rectenwald Lars Mapstead Jacob Hornberger
Home state Pennsylvania California Virginia
Popular vote 7 5 2
Percentage 41.2% 29.4% 11.8%
 
Candidate Chase Oliver None of the above
Home state Georgia N/A
Popular vote 2 1
Percentage 11.8% 5.9%

General election

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[13] Solid R December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Solid R April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe R June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[16] Safe R December 14, 2023
CNalysis[17] Solid R December 30, 2023
CNN[18] Solid R January 14, 2024
The Economist[19] Safe R June 12, 2024
538[20] Likely R June 11, 2024
RCP[21] Solid R June 26, 2024

Polling

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Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[22][A] April 13–21, 2024 423 (LV) – 51% 42% 7%
Echelon Insights[23][B] August 31 – September 7, 2022 409 (LV) ± 7.8% 54% 36% 10%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[22][A] April 13–21, 2024 423 (LV) – 50% 37% 13%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[22][A] April 13–21, 2024 423 (LV) – 52% 35% 13%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Ron
DeSantis
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
Echelon Insights[23][B] August 31 – September 7, 2022 409 (LV) ± 7.8% 49% 37% 14%

Early voting

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A study by the Center for Election Innovation & Research in July 2024 found that Mississippi is one of only three remaining states (along with Alabama and New Hampshire) to offer no early in-person voting option for the 2024 general election. The state also requires an eligible reason to vote by mail.[24]

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ a b c d Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  2. ^ a b Poll sponsored by NetChoice

References

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  1. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
  2. ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
  3. ^ Levine, Sam; Gambino, Lauren (July 22, 2024). "Joe Biden withdraws from presidential race after weeks of pressure to quit". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
  4. ^ "Harris says she'll 'earn' nomination as Biden steps aside". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
  5. ^ Gold, Michael; Nehamas, Nicholas (March 13, 2024). "Donald Trump and Joe Biden Clinch Their Party Nominations". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on March 13, 2024. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
  6. ^ Hensley, Nicholas (May 24, 2024). "The Reform Party Nominates Robert Kennedy Jr. For President of the United States". Reform Party National Committee. Retrieved May 24, 2024.
  7. ^ "Mississippi Republican Presidential Nominating Process". thegreenpapers.com. March 5, 2023. Retrieved February 6, 2023.
  8. ^ "Mississippi Presidential Primary". The AP. May 2, 2024. Retrieved May 9, 2024.
  9. ^ "Mississippi Democratic Delegation 2024". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved October 11, 2023.
  10. ^ "Ballot access for presidential candidates". Ballotpedia. Retrieved January 20, 2024.
  11. ^ "2024 Candidate Qualifying List 1.15.2024" (PDF). Mississippi Secretary of State. January 15, 2024. Retrieved January 17, 2024.
  12. ^ "Mississippi Presidential Primary Election Results 2024". NBC News. Retrieved March 12, 2024.
  13. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  14. ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  15. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  16. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  17. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  18. ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  19. ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
  20. ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
  21. ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
  22. ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  23. ^ a b Chavez, Krista (September 13, 2022). "New National Poll: 89% of Americans Say Congress Should Focus on Addressing Inflation, Not Breaking Up Tech". NetChoice.
  24. ^ "The Expansion of Voting Before Election Day, 2000–2024". The Center for Election Innovation & Research. Retrieved September 7, 2024.
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