Alexis Lafrenière to Rangers’ top power play? Defensive prospects?: Mailbag

RALEIGH, NORTH CAROLINA - MAY 16: Alexis Lafrenière #13 of the New York Rangers moves the puck against Jack Drury #18 of the Carolina Hurricanes during the third period in Game Six of the Second Round of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs at PNC Arena on May 16, 2024 in Raleigh, North Carolina.  (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)
By Peter Baugh
Jul 30, 2024

Chris Kreider doesn’t normally watch the Stanley Cup Final. This year was different.

“For whatever reason, I just wanted to suffer through it,” he said last week at the Shoulder Check Showcase in Stamford, Conn.

Kreider got close to playing in this year’s Final rather than watching. His New York Rangers fell in the Eastern Conference final in a six-game series with the Florida Panthers, who ultimately won the championship over the Edmonton Oilers.

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Kreider saw a team in Florida that played a simple, playoff-style game, and that’s something from which he believes the Rangers can learn.

“I think they had absolutely zero ego to their game,” the longest-tenured Ranger said. “They got to their game quicker than any other team. They had complete buy-in up and down the lineup, and I think, to a man, we all knew we were right there with them.”

Now, Kreider said the Rangers’ players must do everything they can in offseason training “to make sure that we come out on the other side of those close ones.” The 33-year-old told reporters he hasn’t been able to downshift after the loss. He’s excited to get back.

The Rangers are still nearly two months out from training camp, though, so we figured it would be a good time to dig into some of your offseason questions now that the free agency dust has settled. This is Part 1 of the mailbag, and Arthur Staple will have Part 2 later.

(Note: Some questions have been edited for clarity and length.)


Who comes off the top power-play unit for Alexis Lafrenière? — Jm J.

Lafrenière had a breakout season, scoring a career-high 28 goals and 57 points. Almost all of that came at even strength. His ascension continued in the playoffs, when he had eight goals and 14 points in 16 games. That’s a 41-goal pace over 82 games. He started to look like what the Rangers expected when they drafted him No. 1 in 2020.

Lafrenière’s production feels like it should be on the top power play, but figuring out who comes off is tricky. He’s not a seamless replacement for anyone on the unit. Artemi Panarin is perhaps the player whose role Lafrenière could best replicate, but removing the fifth-place finisher in Hart Trophy voting from the top power play makes no sense, especially considering how much Panarin thrives with extra time and space.

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Kreider is valuable in the net-front role. He’s second in franchise history in power-play goals (110), and Mika Zibanejad isn’t far behind him (101). Zibanejad, whose wicked one-timer is important to the power play’s success, has actually outscored Kreider on the man advantage since coming to New York in 2016-17. That leaves Vincent Trocheck, who plays the bumper role and is the Rangers’ best faceoff man, a vital skill for a power play.

The Rangers had a successful power play in 2023-24, converting 26.4 percent of the time, which was third-best in the league. Coach Peter Laviolette by no means has to switch it up. If he wants to get Lafrenière more ice time, the solution might be creating two equally strong power play units that split time rather than loading up one. The coach experimented with that last season, putting Lafrenière with linemates Trocheck and Panarin, as well as Kaapo Kakko and the now-departed Erik Gustafsson. But he quickly changed back to the standard Adam Fox-Panarin-Trocheck-Zibanejad-Kreider grouping. Perhaps Lafrenière, if he continues to put up strong even-strength numbers, will force the coaching staff to give the balanced idea more runway this season.

It has been discussed here pretty widely that our defensive corps is farther away from a Cup-winning level than our forwards. Thoughts on our options to upgrade? — Cobra S.

The Rangers let Gustafsson walk in free agency, opening the door for 23-year-old Zac Jones to claim consistent playing time. Deadline addition Chad Ruhwedel, who played only five games for New York last season, is also back. If everyone is healthy, and assuming the Rangers reach a deal with restricted free agent Ryan Lindgren, the opening night defensive pairings could look something like:

Ryan Lindgren-Adam Fox
K’Andre MillerBraden Schneider
Zac Jones-Jacob Trouba

That will give New York a chance to see what it has in Jones, but even if he performs well, it would make sense for general manager Chris Drury to consider adding before the trade deadline. Having extra capable defensemen is always a benefit come playoffs.

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The deadline is a ways away, but here are some defensemen on expiring contracts for teams that could miss the playoffs: Adam Larsson (Seattle), Will Borgen (Seattle), Alec Martinez (Chicago), Ivan Provorov (Columbus), Jan Rutta (San Jose) and Brian Dumoulin (Anaheim). The type of defenseman Drury pursues could depend on how the team looks through the first half. If Jones settles in nicely, the Rangers probably could look more at shutdown candidates. If Trouba and Lindgren both rebound from up-and-down 2023-24s, the front office could look to someone more offensive-minded.

Do you believe Igor Shesterkin will take a “discount” to help the team with cap knowing they have other players like Lafrenière and Miller to re-sign and to bring in other talent from free agency to help them get over the hump and try to win a Cup? — Grant G.

Early indications are that Shesterkin will maximize his earning potential in contract negotiations. That makes sense; this is probably his best chance for a major contract. Staple had a good look at his situation earlier in the offseason, pointing out that Shesterkin’s starting point in negotiations could be 14 percent of the salary cap — the same as Carey Price got in the summer of 2017. That would be around $12.94 million. Shesterkin might not necessarily get that big of a deal, but if that’s the starting point, it’s hard to see him taking much of a discount.

Is there any part of you that doesn’t believe an expensive Igor contract is an inevitability? There is no track record of an expensive goalie resulting in Cup wins, with the exception of Sergei Bobrovsky this past year. Recent Cup-winning goalies include Adin Hill, Darcy Kuemper, Jordan Binnington, Matt Murray, and very nearly Stuart Skinner. I feel like signing him to a massive deal will eliminate their flexibility to follow the winning blueprint. A team has never won trying to rely on special teams and goaltending, but it feels like they’re content to redo the Henrik Lundqvist era with a team that struggles at five-on-five and has to rely on elite goaltending. — Zach V.

This answer comes down to how the Rangers feel about one question: Would letting Shesterkin walk give the Rangers enough salary cap flexibility to build a strong enough five-on-five team to make up for what will likely be a substantial downgrade in net? That’s far from a guarantee.

You’re correct that inexpensive goalies have won the Stanley Cup in recent years, but there’s another expensive recent Cup-winning goalie aside from Bobrovsky. Andrei Vasilevskiy won one of his two Stanley Cup rings with Tampa Bay, then made it to the Final a third time while on a $9.5 million cap hit. That was 11.66 percent of the salary cap when he signed, which could be around what Shesterkin fetches. Plenty of other teams have had success while paying goalies more than 10 percent of the salary cap at the time of signing. These goalies all made the Cup Final: Bobrovsky in 2023 (12.27 percent, signed in July 2019), Vasilevskiy in 2022 (11.66 percent, signed in July 2019), Carey Price in 2021 (14 percent, signed in July 2017), Tuukka Rask in 2019 (10.89 percent, signed in July 2013) and — of course — Lundqvist in 2014 (12.13 percent, signed in February 2008). It’s worth noting that, aside from Vasilevskiy, all those goalies made the Cup Final at least four summers after their extensions were signed, so the salary cap went up a bit during their deals. Still, those examples show it’s possible to have successful, Cup-contending teams, even with expensive goalies.

Laviolette has historically favored a shut down-type third line such as the original third line he constructed to start last season centered by Trochek. Would he consider trying that again with Filip Chytil centering Lafrenière & Panarin? That line was actually quite successful in the 10 games they played together. — Jeff C.

It’s always possible, but it would be difficult to move Trocheck from the top six after the year he had in 2023-24. He posted a career-high 77 points and had great chemistry with Lafrenière and Panarin. That was one of the top lines in the league. For the Rangers to be at their best, Trocheck needs to be on the ice as much as possible. Moving him down the lineup wouldn’t accomplish that.

If Laviolette tries Reilly Smith with Zibanejad and Kreider and keeps the Panarin-Trocheck-Lafrenière line together, the third line would likely consist of Will Cuylle, Chytil and Kakko. That’s not a shutdown third line but also not much different from the trio Laviolette went with much of last season, when he often had Cuylle and Kakko together.

What are the chances of trading Panarin? He’s a tremendous offensive talent whose game does not translate in the playoffs. Any team out there who we could match up with and get a Matthew Tkachuck-type player in here? — John M.

Panarin has a full no-movement clause, so he’d have total control of the situation. It’s hard to see him waiving that. Even if he would accept a trade, the Rangers would almost certainly not get equal win-now value in return. Even though New York needed more from Panarin this past postseason, he still had 15 points in 16 playoff games. That production, combined with his perennial All-Star regular season numbers, would be virtually impossible for the Rangers to replace.

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What are the chances Reilly Smith addresses or improves upon the right wing issue for Kreider and Mika? — Eric G.

Smith might not be a seamless fit — he’s streaky offensively — but he is definitely an upgrade over the right-wing options Laviolette had last year. Deadline addition Jack Roslovic had stretches of fitting in, but he went quiet against the Panthers in the conference final. Blake Wheeler looked a step slow, and Chytil was playing his first games in six months when he slotted into the playoff lineup.

Smith had a disappointing year in Pittsburgh, but the season before was one of his best: 26 goals, 56 points, both the second-best marks of his career, and the Stanley Cup to boot. He had 14 points in 22 playoff games, too. Anything close to that would be a notable boost for New York.

It seems like we have promising forward prospects, but not many high upside defense prospects. Who is the most exciting defensive prospect on the team, and when might he get to the NHL? — Robert B.

The Rangers’ 2024 first-round pick, EJ Emery, likely slots in as the No. 1 defensive prospect in the Rangers system. He’s big — 6 feet 3 inches — and will play this coming season at North Dakota. Colleague Corey Pronman noted that offensive expectations aren’t high but that he projects as a No. 4 or 5 defenseman. “(H)is elite athleticism gives him some upside to be better than that if he really hits,” he wrote after the draft.

Drew Fortescue, who’s playing at Boston College, is another name to monitor. Here’s how colleague Scott Wheeler described his potential in his February rankings: “And while he probably tops out as a depth defenseman at his ceiling, some believe he’ll play four years, give himself a good chance to get signed, and then maybe work his way through the AHL to become an efficient No. 6/7.”

(Photo of Alexis Lafrenière: Grant Halverson / Getty Images)

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Peter Baugh

Peter Baugh is a staff writer for The Athletic NHL based in New York. He has previously been published in the Columbia Missourian, St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Kansas City Star, Politico and the Washington Post. A St. Louis native, Peter graduated from the University of Missouri and previously covered the Missouri Tigers and the Colorado Avalanche for The Athletic. Follow Peter on Twitter @Peter_Baugh