We’re another week closer to the fantasy playoffs, so let’s get right into it and help you find a players who could give your lineup a boost to solidify, or raise, your place in the standings.
Pavel Buchnevich, RW, NYR | 64% Yahoo
Buchnevich’s game has taken strides this season. He’s developed into a key two-way presence, and is on their top short-handed unit. Up front, he’s on pace to reach career highs in scoring despite the season being condensed to 56 games; his scoring rate of 3.06 points per 60 is the best of his career and second best on the team. While the ‘KZB’ trio of Kreider-Zibanejad-Buchnevich may have struggled earlier this season, they appear to be on the right path since Mika Zibanejad bounced back from a rough start which bodes well for continued production.
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The Rangers have three more meetings this week, two in Philadelphia and one against the Capitals. The Flyers have been struggling as of late; not only are they trending in the wrong direction below the surface at even strength, but their goaltending has been brutal. Carter Hart has allowed a league-high 22 more goals than expected at even strength, while Brian Elliot’s conceded 5.5 more than expected. The Rangers will likely see both of them between Thursday and Saturday.
Via Evolving-Hockey
If you can’t add Buchnevich, but want to try to benefit from this upcoming matchup, try Kaapo Kakko (RW | 8% Yahoo). He’s made major improvements from a challenging rookie season, and appears to be getting back to that level after missing time with COVID. Plus — and this is the real kicker in it all — he’s skating alongside Artemiy Panarin and Ryan Strome at even strength, who have been game-changers for the Rangers.
Alex Killorn, LW/RW, TBL | 50% Yahoo
Like Kakko, Killorn’s value has been boosted by his linemates; he’s currently slotted on Tampa Bay’s top line with Brayden Point and Steven Stamkos. That alone increases his fantasy value. Then there’s his role on the first power play unit with Point, Stamkos, Ondrej Palat, and Victor Hedman. Killorn’s offensive impact hasn’t been as strong as year’s past, but playing alongside two of the top forwards in the league should change that.
If you want to try to benefit from the Lightning’s skill, but want to go in a different direction, we recommend Yanni Gourde (C/LW/RW | 54%). He may not play as high in the lineup, but he’s part of a formidable third line, with Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow, that provides depth scoring. For depth adds, it helps to have positional flexibility to fill in needs around a team’s core; Gourde’s listed with all three forward positions which is as handy as it gets.
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Kasperi Kapanen, LW/RW, PIT | 37% Yahoo
Kapanen formed a skilled duo with Evgeni Malkin, but with his center week-to-week, it’s changed the winger’s fantasy value. Now, he’s currently on the second line with Zach Aston-Reese and Jared McCann.
However, his role on the Penguins’ first power play is what piques our interest. Without Malkin, that first unit now is composed of Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel, Bryan Rust, Kris Letang, and Kapanen. Any opportunity with Crosby and Guentzel — especially on the man-advantage — adds fantasy value. The first unit plays the majority of the Penguins’ time on the man-advantage, so Kapanen should see his ice time continue to rise in those situations.
Via HockeyViz
Plus, there’s Kapanen’s next opponent: the Buffalo Sabres. Back-to-back games against one of the worst teams in the league should make it easy for Pittsburgh. So is the fact that the Sabres are currently riding their third-string goaltender, Dustin Tokarski, with Linus Ullmark and Carter Hutton injured.
Oliver Wahlstrom, RW, NYI | 8% Yahoo
Wahlstrom’s provided an offensive spark since being promoted to the Islanders. Through 26 games, he’s tallied 15 points, which puts him eighth on the team. When we weigh how much time he’s actually played, we see a team-leading rate of 2.95 points per 60.
About half of his production has come on the power play, with two goals and five assists. Sample sizes can skew results, but the Islanders’ power play appears to have gotten a boost in offensive generation with Wahlstrom deployed, as the heat map below shows by the orange and brown areas in front of the net.
Via HockeyViz
The team’s power play ice time has been more evenly distributed between units as of late, after opening the season with a more distinctive split in usage. So while he’s currently on the ‘second’ unit with Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Brock Nelson, Josh Bailey, and Nick Leddy, they aren’t playing as little of power play time as second units often do.
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Just keep an eye on the Islanders’ scheduling, as Boston is slated to return to play Thursday.
Wayne Simmonds, RW, TOR | 8% Yahoo
We talked about Simmonds last week, so we’ll keep it short: as a net-front presence, he adds a lot of power play potential to a lineup. He’s currently slotted on the ‘top’ unit with Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, Joe Thornton, and Morgan Rielly. What we like about the winger who can boost your shot totals even more is his current spot in the lineup at even strength — he’s moved up to the first line with Matthews and Marner. Need we say more?
Valeri Nichuskin, LW/RW, COL | 4% Yahoo
Let’s just check how things are going in Colorado…
Via Evolving-Hockey
The Avalanche are head-and-shoulders above the rest of the league right now. At 5-on-5, the team controls about 59 percent of the shots and expected goals share — both of which lead the league. So if you’re looking to add players from any particular team, it should probably be the Avalanche. We’ve talked about Nazem Kadri, for his power play production, and Andre Burakovsky before, so we’re going to take this in a different direction this week with Nichuskin, who provides depth scoring and some hits.
Colorado’s going up against Vegas twice this week, and despite how strong the Avalanche may be, it’s still going to be a tough matchup. While we expect the usual cast of players to continue to be difference-makers, in close tilts like this, we’re going to look to depth scoring to be key — specifically, the third line of Joonas Donskoi (LW/RW, 11% Yahoo), Tyson Jost (C/LW, 1% Yahoo), and Nichuskin. All three members of this line are apt at striping their opponents of the puck, with 44 takeaways between them — and once they have the puck, they don’t often give it back. With this line deployed at 5-on-5, the Avalanche create a lot of shots, and don’t let their opponents create much of anything; they’ve controlled over 70 percent of the shots and expected goal share.
Via HockeyViz
Dylan Cozens, C/RW, BUF | 3% Yahoo
Buffalo has to win eventually, right? Given the chaos that is hockey, it really wouldn’t be entirely shocking for it to come against a team that they have no business winning against, like the Penguins.
Cozens and the Sabres have three more games this week, two against Pittsburgh and one against Boston. The rookie center is currently slated between Taylor Hall and Sam Reinhart, so there is actually some potential for scoring here. Plus, he’s currently being deployed on the second power play unit. We’re not confident in anything involving the Sabres, but if you want to take a risk, this one has some possibilities.
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Troy Terry, RW, ANA | 2% Yahoo
The Ducks added four players to the COVID list Tuesday, so we have some concerns about their games to end the week. If they continue as planned, consider Terry, who has boosted Anaheim’s offensive generation. He’s currently on the second line with Trevor Zegras, who we talked about last week, and Adam Henrique.
MacKenzie Weegar, D, FLA | 63% Yahoo
Weegar may not be the ‘standout’ name you think of when adding players for fantasy hockey, but you should probably change that. Throughout the first half of the season, Weegar and Aaron Ekblad have helped solidify the Panthers’ back-end. Florida allows their opponents to generate shots in the slot or right in front of the crease at 5-on-5. The Panthers are also stronger than league average offensively with them on the ice.
Weegar checks off the boxes most look for when seeking a depth fantasy defender by chipping in blocks and hits. But he’s also contributed to the offensive categories fairly consistently.
The fantasy weakness for Weegar is that he doesn’t get power play time, and that’s a pretty handy category to fill. But he makes the most of his even strength time in terms of scoring; it’s where he’s netted 18 of his 19 points. That even strength scoring ranks third among defenders in the league, behind Darnell Nurse and John Carlson; his 16 assists lead the league for blue liners.
Ryan Graves, D, COL | 31% Yahoo
Remember that time we mentioned the Avalanche being dynamic? It boosts the value of every player in a fantasy context, including Graves. The Colorado defender sprinkles in some points, but can be handy for the more physical categories. The shot blocker will likely have his work cut out for him against Vegas, a team who fires pucks off at the third-highest rate in the league at 5-on-5. We expect Graves to absorb quite a few of them in their tight matchup this week.
Juuse Saros, G, NSH | 48% Yahoo
Saros had a rough start to the season, but after missing seven games with injury, he’s strung together three stellar performances. The Preds’ netminder returned to turn aside 40 of 41 shots in Florida. Two nights later, he stopped all but one of the 48 shots he faced. Then in his next start, in Detroit, he was perfect in net, saving all 31 shots against. Through his first 13 games of the season, Saros allowed seven more goals than expected, which was among the league’s worst. But in his past three games alone, he saved three more than he was expected to based on his workload. So, he’s actually almost at break-even in GSAx thanks to his past three games. We still have concerns about the Predators, but Saros has made himself a goaltender to watch moving forward. Nashville plays Detroit once more before facing off in back-to-back games in Chicago. Expect two starts of out of Saros to end the week.
Data via Evolving-Hockey, NaturalStatTrick, and HockeyViz
(Top photo: Patrick Smith/Getty Images)
