Climate change issues, prevention, adaptation 12
This is a continuation of the topic Climate change issues, prevention, adaptation 11.
TalkPro and Con
Join LibraryThing to post.
1margd
History may not repeat itself but looks like it might rhyme... :(
In last thread, researchers found evidence of CO2 increase, AMOC weakening, and climate upheavals in water isotopes from ancient Antarctic ice.
Below, researchers link human decimation and migration related to climate change 900,000 years ago.
Study Reveals How Ancient Humans Escaped Climate Extinction 900,000 Years Ago
Humans
Michelle Starr | 18 March 2024
...researchers re-evaluated records of sites of early hominid habitation across Eurasia, and found a cluster of sites reliably dated to 900,000 years ago. In comparison, the dating on older sites used as evidence of a population bottleneck was more ambiguous and therefore disputable.
They compared their findings to marine sediment records, which preserve evidence of changes in the climate in the form of oxygen isotopes . Ratios of oxygen trapped in sediment layers indicate whether the climate was warmer or cooler at the time the minerals were deposited.
The genomic data and the dating of the hominid sites together suggest that the bottleneck and the migration were simultaneous. During the Mid-Pleistocene Transition, global ocean levels dropped, and Africa and Asia dried out, with large patches of aridity. Hominids living in Africa would have faced horrible conditions depriving them of food and water. Fortunately, with the falling sea level, land routes into Eurasia became available and they were able to skedaddle, according to the researchers' model...
https://www.sciencealert.com/study-reveals-how-ancient-humans-escaped-climate-ex...
----------------------------------------------
Giovanni Muttoni et al. 2024. Hominin population bottleneck coincided with migration from Africa during the Early Pleistocene ice age transition. PNAS March 11, 2024. 121 (13) e2318903121. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2318903121 https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2318903121
In last thread, researchers found evidence of CO2 increase, AMOC weakening, and climate upheavals in water isotopes from ancient Antarctic ice.
Below, researchers link human decimation and migration related to climate change 900,000 years ago.
Study Reveals How Ancient Humans Escaped Climate Extinction 900,000 Years Ago
Humans
Michelle Starr | 18 March 2024
...researchers re-evaluated records of sites of early hominid habitation across Eurasia, and found a cluster of sites reliably dated to 900,000 years ago. In comparison, the dating on older sites used as evidence of a population bottleneck was more ambiguous and therefore disputable.
They compared their findings to marine sediment records, which preserve evidence of changes in the climate in the form of oxygen isotopes . Ratios of oxygen trapped in sediment layers indicate whether the climate was warmer or cooler at the time the minerals were deposited.
The genomic data and the dating of the hominid sites together suggest that the bottleneck and the migration were simultaneous. During the Mid-Pleistocene Transition, global ocean levels dropped, and Africa and Asia dried out, with large patches of aridity. Hominids living in Africa would have faced horrible conditions depriving them of food and water. Fortunately, with the falling sea level, land routes into Eurasia became available and they were able to skedaddle, according to the researchers' model...
https://www.sciencealert.com/study-reveals-how-ancient-humans-escaped-climate-ex...
----------------------------------------------
Giovanni Muttoni et al. 2024. Hominin population bottleneck coincided with migration from Africa during the Early Pleistocene ice age transition. PNAS March 11, 2024. 121 (13) e2318903121. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2318903121 https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2318903121
2margd
Dramatic Shift in Africa 5,000 Years Ago Could Be a Warning of The Future
Martin Trauth | 12 May 2024
...Around five and half millennia ago, northern Africa went through a dramatic transformation. The Sahara desert expanded and grasslands, forests and lakes favoured by humans disappeared. Humans were forced to retreat to the mountains, the oases, and the Nile valley and delta.
As a relatively large and dispersed population was squeezed into smaller and more fertile areas, it needed to innovate new ways to produce food and organise society. Soon after, one of the world's first great civilisations emerged – ancient Egypt.
This transition from the most recent "African humid period", which lasted from 15,000 to 5,500 years ago, to the current dry conditions in northern Africa is the clearest example of a climate tipping point in recent geological history. Climate tipping points are thresholds that, once crossed, result in dramatic climate change to a new stable climate.
...before northern Africa dried out, its climate "flickered" between two stable climatic states before tipping permanently. This is the first time it's been shown such flickering happened in Earth's past. And it suggests that places with highly variable cycles of changing climate today may in some cases by headed for tipping points of their own.
Whether we will have any warnings of climate tipping points is one of the biggest concerns of climate scientists today. As we pass global warming of 1.5˚C, the most likely tipping points involve the collapse of ice sheets in Greenland or Antarctica, tropical coral reefs dying off, or abrupt thawing of Arctic permafrost.
Some say that there will be warning signs of these major climate shifts. However, these depend very much on the actual type of tipping point, and the interpretation of these signals is therefore difficult. One of the big questions is whether tipping points will be characterised by flickering or whether the climate will initially appear to become more stable before tipping over in one go...
...We now know that at the end of the African humid period there was around 1,000 years in which the climate alternated regularly between being intensely dry and wet...
...We see the same types of flickering during a previous change from humid to dry climate around 379,000 years ago in the same sediment core {long before humans had any influence on the environment}. It looks like a perfect copy of the transition at the end of the African humid period.
...It seems that highly variable climate conditions such as rapid wet–dry cycles may warn of a significant shift in the climate system. Identifying these precursors now may provide the warning we need that future warming will take us across one of more of the sixteen identified critical climate tipping points. {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abn7950}
This is particularly important for regions such as eastern Africa whose nearly 500 million people are already highly vulnerable to climate change induced impacts such as drought...
https://www.sciencealert.com/dramatic-shift-in-africa-5000-years-ago-could-be-a-...
-----------------------------------------
Martin H. Trauth et al. 2024. Early warning signals of the termination of the African Humid Period(s). Nature Communications volume 15, Article number: 3697 (7 May 2024) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-47921-1
Martin Trauth | 12 May 2024
...Around five and half millennia ago, northern Africa went through a dramatic transformation. The Sahara desert expanded and grasslands, forests and lakes favoured by humans disappeared. Humans were forced to retreat to the mountains, the oases, and the Nile valley and delta.
As a relatively large and dispersed population was squeezed into smaller and more fertile areas, it needed to innovate new ways to produce food and organise society. Soon after, one of the world's first great civilisations emerged – ancient Egypt.
This transition from the most recent "African humid period", which lasted from 15,000 to 5,500 years ago, to the current dry conditions in northern Africa is the clearest example of a climate tipping point in recent geological history. Climate tipping points are thresholds that, once crossed, result in dramatic climate change to a new stable climate.
...before northern Africa dried out, its climate "flickered" between two stable climatic states before tipping permanently. This is the first time it's been shown such flickering happened in Earth's past. And it suggests that places with highly variable cycles of changing climate today may in some cases by headed for tipping points of their own.
Whether we will have any warnings of climate tipping points is one of the biggest concerns of climate scientists today. As we pass global warming of 1.5˚C, the most likely tipping points involve the collapse of ice sheets in Greenland or Antarctica, tropical coral reefs dying off, or abrupt thawing of Arctic permafrost.
Some say that there will be warning signs of these major climate shifts. However, these depend very much on the actual type of tipping point, and the interpretation of these signals is therefore difficult. One of the big questions is whether tipping points will be characterised by flickering or whether the climate will initially appear to become more stable before tipping over in one go...
...We now know that at the end of the African humid period there was around 1,000 years in which the climate alternated regularly between being intensely dry and wet...
...We see the same types of flickering during a previous change from humid to dry climate around 379,000 years ago in the same sediment core {long before humans had any influence on the environment}. It looks like a perfect copy of the transition at the end of the African humid period.
...It seems that highly variable climate conditions such as rapid wet–dry cycles may warn of a significant shift in the climate system. Identifying these precursors now may provide the warning we need that future warming will take us across one of more of the sixteen identified critical climate tipping points. {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abn7950}
This is particularly important for regions such as eastern Africa whose nearly 500 million people are already highly vulnerable to climate change induced impacts such as drought...
https://www.sciencealert.com/dramatic-shift-in-africa-5000-years-ago-could-be-a-...
-----------------------------------------
Martin H. Trauth et al. 2024. Early warning signals of the termination of the African Humid Period(s). Nature Communications volume 15, Article number: 3697 (7 May 2024) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-47921-1
3margd
One event could wreak global climate havoc. Neither side of Australian politics has got a clue about it...
Climate Code Red | 13 May 2024
There is no greater disruptive physical climate risk than the collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), the main current system in the South and North Atlantic Oceans, which is linked to circulation in the Southern Ocean.
There is a non-trivial and unacceptable risk that the AMOC flow will collapse this century, with devastating consequences for global food production, for sea levels and for flooding in Australia. Shifts in global weather patterns would likely deprive Asia of vital monsoon rains, with enormous security consequences for the region and for Australia.
AMOC slowdown: ... It has been in a steady state for thousands of years, but climate change is melting Greenland at an accelerating rate, adding more fresh water to the Atlantic Ocean and gradually slowing the circulation strength... This system has already slowed by 15 per cent since the mid-20th century.
Collapse: ...A July 2023 study* estimated “a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of future emissions”, with a high confidence (95 per cent probability) of it occurring between 2025 and 2095. ...
Antarctic connection: ...Antarctic deep ocean warming and changes in deep ocean circulation contribut(e) to a slowing of the AMOC over the next few decades, with physical measurements confirming these changes already well underway. ...
Likelihood: {Stefan Rahmstorf, Potsdam U) warns that “when several studies with different data and methods point to a tipping point that is already quite close, I think this risk should be taken very seriously” and “increasingly the evidence points to the risk being far greater than 10 per cent during this century – even rather worrying for the next few decades”.
Consequences: ...AMOC slowdown would cool London by an average of 10°C and Bergen, Norway by 15°C. A breakdown of this system could plunge the UK and large parts of the Northern Hemisphere into a new ice age, with temperatures in parts of Europe dropping by 3°C each decade and sea levels rising by a metre on both sides of the North Atlantic, while the wet and dry seasons in the Amazon would flip and severely disrupt the rainforest’s ecosystem.
Global food and water security crisis: ...collapse of the AMOC heat-transporting circulation would be a going-out-of-business scenario for European agriculture...the monsoons that typically deliver rain to West Africa and South Asia would become unreliable, and huge swaths of Europe and Russia would be devastated by drought. As much as half of the world’s viable area for growing corn and wheat could dry out. {Prof. Peter Ditlevsen* of the University of Copenhagen} says that “in simple terms {it} would be a combined food and water security crisis on a global scale.”
Consequences for Australia: The southern hemisphere, including Australia, would become warmer and more prone to flooding. A regional food crisis would have huge impacts on the global price of food, leading to large-scale regional people displacement and contributing to state breakdown and regional conflict.
...The only rational response to possible AMOC collapse is a global emergency effort to reduce emissions to zero far sooner than policymakers’ 2050 timeframe, along with whatever other measures can be applied to prevent the levels of warming triggering such an event...
Download full report: Australia's Security Leaders Climate Group. May 2024. Too Hot to Handle. The Sorching Reality of Australia's Climate-Security Failure. https://www.aslcg.org/reports/too-hot-to-handle/
https://www.climatecodered.org/2024/05/one-climate-event-could-wreak-global.html
------------------------------------------
* Peter Ditlevsen & Susanne Ditlevsen 2023. Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Nature Communications volume 14, Article number: 4254 (25 July 2023). Open access. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w#Sec7
Abstract
...We estimate a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of future emissions.
Discussion
...We predict with high confidence the tipping to happen as soon as mid-century (2025–2095 is a 95% confidence range) ... given the importance of the AMOC for the climate system, we ought not to ignore such clear indicators of an imminent collapse.
Though we have established firm statistical methods to evaluate the confidence in the observed EWS (Early Warning Signals), we can at present not rule out the possibility that a collapse will only be partial and not lead to a full collapse of the AMOC as suggested by some models... Furthermore, a high speed of ramping, i.e., a high speed at which the critical value of the control parameter is approached, could also increase the probability of tipping... Even with these reservations, this is indeed a worrisome result, which should call for fast and effective measures to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions in order to avoid the steady change of the control parameter toward the collapse of the AMOC (i.e., reduce temperature increase and freshwater input through ice melting into the North Atlantic region). As a collapse of the AMOC has strong societal implications..., it is important to monitor the flow and EWS from direct measurements...
Climate Code Red | 13 May 2024
There is no greater disruptive physical climate risk than the collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), the main current system in the South and North Atlantic Oceans, which is linked to circulation in the Southern Ocean.
There is a non-trivial and unacceptable risk that the AMOC flow will collapse this century, with devastating consequences for global food production, for sea levels and for flooding in Australia. Shifts in global weather patterns would likely deprive Asia of vital monsoon rains, with enormous security consequences for the region and for Australia.
AMOC slowdown: ... It has been in a steady state for thousands of years, but climate change is melting Greenland at an accelerating rate, adding more fresh water to the Atlantic Ocean and gradually slowing the circulation strength... This system has already slowed by 15 per cent since the mid-20th century.
Collapse: ...A July 2023 study* estimated “a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of future emissions”, with a high confidence (95 per cent probability) of it occurring between 2025 and 2095. ...
Antarctic connection: ...Antarctic deep ocean warming and changes in deep ocean circulation contribut(e) to a slowing of the AMOC over the next few decades, with physical measurements confirming these changes already well underway. ...
Likelihood: {Stefan Rahmstorf, Potsdam U) warns that “when several studies with different data and methods point to a tipping point that is already quite close, I think this risk should be taken very seriously” and “increasingly the evidence points to the risk being far greater than 10 per cent during this century – even rather worrying for the next few decades”.
Consequences: ...AMOC slowdown would cool London by an average of 10°C and Bergen, Norway by 15°C. A breakdown of this system could plunge the UK and large parts of the Northern Hemisphere into a new ice age, with temperatures in parts of Europe dropping by 3°C each decade and sea levels rising by a metre on both sides of the North Atlantic, while the wet and dry seasons in the Amazon would flip and severely disrupt the rainforest’s ecosystem.
Global food and water security crisis: ...collapse of the AMOC heat-transporting circulation would be a going-out-of-business scenario for European agriculture...the monsoons that typically deliver rain to West Africa and South Asia would become unreliable, and huge swaths of Europe and Russia would be devastated by drought. As much as half of the world’s viable area for growing corn and wheat could dry out. {Prof. Peter Ditlevsen* of the University of Copenhagen} says that “in simple terms {it} would be a combined food and water security crisis on a global scale.”
Consequences for Australia: The southern hemisphere, including Australia, would become warmer and more prone to flooding. A regional food crisis would have huge impacts on the global price of food, leading to large-scale regional people displacement and contributing to state breakdown and regional conflict.
...The only rational response to possible AMOC collapse is a global emergency effort to reduce emissions to zero far sooner than policymakers’ 2050 timeframe, along with whatever other measures can be applied to prevent the levels of warming triggering such an event...
Download full report: Australia's Security Leaders Climate Group. May 2024. Too Hot to Handle. The Sorching Reality of Australia's Climate-Security Failure. https://www.aslcg.org/reports/too-hot-to-handle/
https://www.climatecodered.org/2024/05/one-climate-event-could-wreak-global.html
------------------------------------------
* Peter Ditlevsen & Susanne Ditlevsen 2023. Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Nature Communications volume 14, Article number: 4254 (25 July 2023). Open access. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w#Sec7
Abstract
...We estimate a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of future emissions.
Discussion
...We predict with high confidence the tipping to happen as soon as mid-century (2025–2095 is a 95% confidence range) ... given the importance of the AMOC for the climate system, we ought not to ignore such clear indicators of an imminent collapse.
Though we have established firm statistical methods to evaluate the confidence in the observed EWS (Early Warning Signals), we can at present not rule out the possibility that a collapse will only be partial and not lead to a full collapse of the AMOC as suggested by some models... Furthermore, a high speed of ramping, i.e., a high speed at which the critical value of the control parameter is approached, could also increase the probability of tipping... Even with these reservations, this is indeed a worrisome result, which should call for fast and effective measures to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions in order to avoid the steady change of the control parameter toward the collapse of the AMOC (i.e., reduce temperature increase and freshwater input through ice melting into the North Atlantic region). As a collapse of the AMOC has strong societal implications..., it is important to monitor the flow and EWS from direct measurements...
4margd
>3 margd: AMOC collapse, contd. On course... :(
Atlantic Ocean is headed for a tipping point − once melting glaciers shut down the Gulf Stream, we would see extreme climate change within decades, study shows
René van Westen, Henk A. Dijkstra and Michael Kliphuis (Utrecht University) | Updated: February 11, 2024
...the Atlantic Ocean circulation has observably slowed over the past two decades, possibly to its weakest state in almost a millennium....the circulation has reached a dangerous tipping point in the past that sent it into a precipitous, unstoppable decline, and that it could hit that tipping point again as the planet warms and glaciers and ice sheets melt.
...We performed an experiment with a detailed climate model to find the tipping point for an abrupt shutdown by slowly increasing the input of fresh water.
We found that once it reaches the tipping point, the conveyor belt shuts down within 100 years. The heat transport toward the north is strongly reduced, leading to abrupt climate shifts.
The result: Dangerous cold in the North...The conveyor belt shutting down would also affect sea level and precipitation patterns, which can push other ecosystems closer to their tipping points.
So, when will we see this tipping point?...a physics-based and observable early warning signal involving the salinity transport at the southern boundary of the Atlantic Ocean {margd: latitude 34°S? Per graph in article, 0.5 input of freshwater? } . Once a threshold is reached, the tipping point is likely to follow in one to four decades...
https://theconversation.com/atlantic-ocean-is-headed-for-a-tipping-point-once-me...
------------------------------------------
René M. van Westen et al. 2024. Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course. Science Advances, 9 Feb 2024, Vol 10, Issue 6.
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adk1189 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adk1189
Atlantic Ocean is headed for a tipping point − once melting glaciers shut down the Gulf Stream, we would see extreme climate change within decades, study shows
René van Westen, Henk A. Dijkstra and Michael Kliphuis (Utrecht University) | Updated: February 11, 2024
...the Atlantic Ocean circulation has observably slowed over the past two decades, possibly to its weakest state in almost a millennium....the circulation has reached a dangerous tipping point in the past that sent it into a precipitous, unstoppable decline, and that it could hit that tipping point again as the planet warms and glaciers and ice sheets melt.
...We performed an experiment with a detailed climate model to find the tipping point for an abrupt shutdown by slowly increasing the input of fresh water.
We found that once it reaches the tipping point, the conveyor belt shuts down within 100 years. The heat transport toward the north is strongly reduced, leading to abrupt climate shifts.
The result: Dangerous cold in the North...The conveyor belt shutting down would also affect sea level and precipitation patterns, which can push other ecosystems closer to their tipping points.
So, when will we see this tipping point?...a physics-based and observable early warning signal involving the salinity transport at the southern boundary of the Atlantic Ocean {margd: latitude 34°S? Per graph in article, 0.5 input of freshwater? } . Once a threshold is reached, the tipping point is likely to follow in one to four decades...
https://theconversation.com/atlantic-ocean-is-headed-for-a-tipping-point-once-me...
------------------------------------------
René M. van Westen et al. 2024. Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course. Science Advances, 9 Feb 2024, Vol 10, Issue 6.
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adk1189 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adk1189
5margd
Pope Francis: "Climate change at this moment is a road to death"
Jennifer Earl | May 21, 2024
..."How worried are you about climate change?" CBS Evening News anchor and managing editor Norah O'Donnell asked Francis during a historic interview in Vatican City.
"Unfortunately, we have gotten to a point of no return. It's sad, but that's what it is. Global warming is a serious problem," Francis replied. "Climate change at this moment is a road to death."
Francis said wealthy countries reliant on fossil fuels are contributing to the problem.
"They are the countries that can make the most difference, given their industry and all, aren't they? But it is very difficult to create an awareness of this. They hold a conference, everybody is in agreement, they all sign, and then bye-bye. But we have to be very clear, global warming is alarming," Francis said.
...On Earth Day this year, Francis wrote a message on social media saying, "Our generation has bequeathed many riches, but we have failed to protect the planet and we are not safeguarding peace. We are called to become artisans and caretakers of our common home, the Earth which is 'falling into ruin.'"..
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/pope-francis-urges-action-on-climate-change-its-a-r...
Jennifer Earl | May 21, 2024
..."How worried are you about climate change?" CBS Evening News anchor and managing editor Norah O'Donnell asked Francis during a historic interview in Vatican City.
"Unfortunately, we have gotten to a point of no return. It's sad, but that's what it is. Global warming is a serious problem," Francis replied. "Climate change at this moment is a road to death."
Francis said wealthy countries reliant on fossil fuels are contributing to the problem.
"They are the countries that can make the most difference, given their industry and all, aren't they? But it is very difficult to create an awareness of this. They hold a conference, everybody is in agreement, they all sign, and then bye-bye. But we have to be very clear, global warming is alarming," Francis said.
...On Earth Day this year, Francis wrote a message on social media saying, "Our generation has bequeathed many riches, but we have failed to protect the planet and we are not safeguarding peace. We are called to become artisans and caretakers of our common home, the Earth which is 'falling into ruin.'"..
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/pope-francis-urges-action-on-climate-change-its-a-r...
6margd
Alaska's pristine rivers are turning a rusty orange even when seen from space, likely because of melting permafrost: study
Matthew Loh | May 23, 2024
Scientists say that dozens of waterways in Alaska are "rusting," or turning into a dirty orange.
They said permafrost thawing in the summer is now exposing minerals to the surface, releasing metals and acid.
Some brooks and streams are turning so acidic that they're comparable to lemon or orange juice {pH 2.6}...
...At least 75...first observed in 2018 ... first observed in the northwestern state in 2018 ... Previously locked beneath Alaska's permafrost, these minerals are now exposed to water and oxygen, causing them to release acid and metals like zinc, copper, iron, and aluminum ... dissolved iron is thought to be the main culprit behind the "rusting" of the rivers...
https://www.businessinsider.com/75-alaskan-rivers-turning-orange-even-seen-from-...
---------------------------------------
Jonathan A. O’Donnell et al. 2024. Metal mobilization from thawing permafrost to aquatic ecosystems is driving rusting of Arctic streams. Communications Earth & Environment volume 5, Article number: 268 (20 May 2024). Open access. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01446-z?CJEVENT=cd5a07a218d811ef83f94...
Matthew Loh | May 23, 2024
Scientists say that dozens of waterways in Alaska are "rusting," or turning into a dirty orange.
They said permafrost thawing in the summer is now exposing minerals to the surface, releasing metals and acid.
Some brooks and streams are turning so acidic that they're comparable to lemon or orange juice {pH 2.6}...
...At least 75...first observed in 2018 ... first observed in the northwestern state in 2018 ... Previously locked beneath Alaska's permafrost, these minerals are now exposed to water and oxygen, causing them to release acid and metals like zinc, copper, iron, and aluminum ... dissolved iron is thought to be the main culprit behind the "rusting" of the rivers...
https://www.businessinsider.com/75-alaskan-rivers-turning-orange-even-seen-from-...
---------------------------------------
Jonathan A. O’Donnell et al. 2024. Metal mobilization from thawing permafrost to aquatic ecosystems is driving rusting of Arctic streams. Communications Earth & Environment volume 5, Article number: 268 (20 May 2024). Open access. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01446-z?CJEVENT=cd5a07a218d811ef83f94...
7margd
Top oil firms’ climate pledges failing on almost every metric, report finds
Dharna Noor | 21 May 2024
Oil Change International says plans do not stand up to scrutiny and describes US fossil-fuel corporations as ‘the worst of the worst’...
...examined climate plans from the eight largest US- and European-based international oil and gas producers – BP, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Eni, Equinor, ExxonMobil, Shell and TotalEnergies – and found none were compatible with limiting global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels – a threshold scientists have long warned could have dire consequences if breached...
...the companies’ current oil and gas extraction plans could lead to more than 2.4C of global temperature rise, which would probably usher in climate devastation...
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/21/oil-companies-report-fos...
Dharna Noor | 21 May 2024
Oil Change International says plans do not stand up to scrutiny and describes US fossil-fuel corporations as ‘the worst of the worst’...
...examined climate plans from the eight largest US- and European-based international oil and gas producers – BP, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Eni, Equinor, ExxonMobil, Shell and TotalEnergies – and found none were compatible with limiting global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels – a threshold scientists have long warned could have dire consequences if breached...
...the companies’ current oil and gas extraction plans could lead to more than 2.4C of global temperature rise, which would probably usher in climate devastation...
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/21/oil-companies-report-fos...
8margd
The True Power of the Climate Movement Is Now to Admit Our Own Powerlessness
Rupert Read | May 22, 2024
...What if the most powerful thing that can be done now is for those who carry the flame ... to admit a kind of defeat? To admit that we are definitively exiting the safe climate space...
https://www.desmog.com/2024/05/22/the-true-power-of-the-climate-movement-is-now-...
-----------------------------------------------
This civilisation is finished: so what is to be done? (1:11:55 -- 40 min presentation + Q&A)
Rupert Read, Environmental Philosopher and Chair of Green House Think Tank.
Filmed at Churchill College, University of Cambridge. 7 Nov 2018.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uzCxFPzdO0Y
The Paris Agreement explicitly commits us to use non-existent, utterly reckless, unaffordable and ineffective 'Negative Emissions Technologies' which will almost certainly fail to be realised. Barring a multifaceted miracle, within a generation, we will be facing an exponentially rising tide of climate disasters that will bring this civilization down. We, therefore, need to engage with climate realism. This means an epic struggle to mitigate and adapt, an epic struggle to take on the climate-criminals and, notably, to start planning seriously for civilizational collapse...
-------------------------------------
1. Wake up
2. Talk about this
3. Think civilizational succession--values, skills
4. Build lifeboats --$, food, community, seed banks, i.e., transformational adaptation, deep adaptation (sea level rise)
5. Holding action
6. Rebel
7. Stop--take time to think
Rupert Read | May 22, 2024
...What if the most powerful thing that can be done now is for those who carry the flame ... to admit a kind of defeat? To admit that we are definitively exiting the safe climate space...
https://www.desmog.com/2024/05/22/the-true-power-of-the-climate-movement-is-now-...
-----------------------------------------------
This civilisation is finished: so what is to be done? (1:11:55 -- 40 min presentation + Q&A)
Rupert Read, Environmental Philosopher and Chair of Green House Think Tank.
Filmed at Churchill College, University of Cambridge. 7 Nov 2018.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uzCxFPzdO0Y
The Paris Agreement explicitly commits us to use non-existent, utterly reckless, unaffordable and ineffective 'Negative Emissions Technologies' which will almost certainly fail to be realised. Barring a multifaceted miracle, within a generation, we will be facing an exponentially rising tide of climate disasters that will bring this civilization down. We, therefore, need to engage with climate realism. This means an epic struggle to mitigate and adapt, an epic struggle to take on the climate-criminals and, notably, to start planning seriously for civilizational collapse...
-------------------------------------
1. Wake up
2. Talk about this
3. Think civilizational succession--values, skills
4. Build lifeboats --$, food, community, seed banks, i.e., transformational adaptation, deep adaptation (sea level rise)
5. Holding action
6. Rebel
7. Stop--take time to think
9margd
Yellow Dot Studios @weareyellowdot | 12:27 PM · May 23, 2024:
Non-profit media studio challenging polluter BS to mobilize climate action. Founded by Adam McKay.
Dr. Hansen's blockbuster announcement ... has received exactly... zero (0) press stories.
Live reactions to Dr. James Hansen's announcement last week that Earth has already reached 1.5°C of global warming:
0:59 (https://x.com/weareyellowdot/status/1793678471719178508)
--------------------------------------
James Edward Hansen @DrJamesEHansen | 9:29 AM · May 16, 2024:
Director of Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions at Columbia University's Earth Institute http://csas.earth.columbia.edu
Formerly Director of NASA GISS
Global temperature is now near its peak due to El Nino + aerosol decrease. How far will it fall in the coming La Nina? If El Nino/La Nina average is ~1.5C, given Earth’s energy imbalance, we are now passing thru 1.5C, for practical purposes. See MayRpt -
Comments on Global Warming Acceleration, Sulfur Emissions, Observations
James Hansen, Pushker Kharecha, Makiko Sato | 16 May 2024
https://mailchi.mp/caa/comments-on-global-warming-acceleration-sulfur-emissions-...
Graph Temperature anomaly 1880-present (https://x.com/DrJamesEHansen/status/1791098653622571341/photo/1)
Non-profit media studio challenging polluter BS to mobilize climate action. Founded by Adam McKay.
Dr. Hansen's blockbuster announcement ... has received exactly... zero (0) press stories.
Live reactions to Dr. James Hansen's announcement last week that Earth has already reached 1.5°C of global warming:
0:59 (https://x.com/weareyellowdot/status/1793678471719178508)
--------------------------------------
James Edward Hansen @DrJamesEHansen | 9:29 AM · May 16, 2024:
Director of Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions at Columbia University's Earth Institute http://csas.earth.columbia.edu
Formerly Director of NASA GISS
Global temperature is now near its peak due to El Nino + aerosol decrease. How far will it fall in the coming La Nina? If El Nino/La Nina average is ~1.5C, given Earth’s energy imbalance, we are now passing thru 1.5C, for practical purposes. See MayRpt -
Comments on Global Warming Acceleration, Sulfur Emissions, Observations
James Hansen, Pushker Kharecha, Makiko Sato | 16 May 2024
https://mailchi.mp/caa/comments-on-global-warming-acceleration-sulfur-emissions-...
Graph Temperature anomaly 1880-present (https://x.com/DrJamesEHansen/status/1791098653622571341/photo/1)
10margd
Ocean water is rushing miles underneath the ‘Doomsday Glacier’ with potentially dire impacts on sea level rise
Laura Paddison | May 21, 2024
... The Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica — nicknamed the “Doomsday Glacier” because its collapse could cause catastrophic sea level rise — is the world’s widest glacier and roughly the size of Florida. It’s also Antarctica’s most vulnerable and unstable glacier, in large part because the land on which it sits slopes downward, allowing ocean waters to eat away at its ice.
Thwaites, which already contributes 4% to global sea level rise, holds enough ice to raise sea levels by more than 2 feet. But because it also acts as a natural dam to the surrounding ice in West Antarctica, scientists have estimated its complete collapse could ultimately lead to around 10 feet of sea level rise — a catastrophe for the world’s coastal communities.
...glaciologists ... used high resolution satellite radar data, collected between March and June last year, to create an X-ray of the glacier. This allowed them to build a picture of changes to Thwaites’ “grounding line,” the point at which the glacier rises from the seabed and becomes a floating ice shelf. Grounding lines are vital to the stability of ice sheets, and a key point of vulnerability for Thwaites, but have been difficult to study.
... They observed seawater pushing beneath the glacier over many miles, and then moving out again, following the daily rhythm of the tides. When the water flows in, it’s enough to “jack up” the surface of the glacier by centimeters, {Eric Rignot, professor of Earth system science at the University of California at Irvine and a co-author on the study} told CNN.
He suggested the term “grounding zone” may be more apt than grounding line, as it can move nearly 4 miles over a 12-hour tidal cycle, according to their research.
The speed of the seawater, which moves considerable distances over a short time period, increases glacier melt because as soon as the ice melts, freshwater is washed out and replaced with warmer seawater, Rignot said...
https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/20/climate/doomsday-glacier-melt-antarctica-climate-...
Laura Paddison | May 21, 2024
... The Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica — nicknamed the “Doomsday Glacier” because its collapse could cause catastrophic sea level rise — is the world’s widest glacier and roughly the size of Florida. It’s also Antarctica’s most vulnerable and unstable glacier, in large part because the land on which it sits slopes downward, allowing ocean waters to eat away at its ice.
Thwaites, which already contributes 4% to global sea level rise, holds enough ice to raise sea levels by more than 2 feet. But because it also acts as a natural dam to the surrounding ice in West Antarctica, scientists have estimated its complete collapse could ultimately lead to around 10 feet of sea level rise — a catastrophe for the world’s coastal communities.
...glaciologists ... used high resolution satellite radar data, collected between March and June last year, to create an X-ray of the glacier. This allowed them to build a picture of changes to Thwaites’ “grounding line,” the point at which the glacier rises from the seabed and becomes a floating ice shelf. Grounding lines are vital to the stability of ice sheets, and a key point of vulnerability for Thwaites, but have been difficult to study.
... They observed seawater pushing beneath the glacier over many miles, and then moving out again, following the daily rhythm of the tides. When the water flows in, it’s enough to “jack up” the surface of the glacier by centimeters, {Eric Rignot, professor of Earth system science at the University of California at Irvine and a co-author on the study} told CNN.
He suggested the term “grounding zone” may be more apt than grounding line, as it can move nearly 4 miles over a 12-hour tidal cycle, according to their research.
The speed of the seawater, which moves considerable distances over a short time period, increases glacier melt because as soon as the ice melts, freshwater is washed out and replaced with warmer seawater, Rignot said...
https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/20/climate/doomsday-glacier-melt-antarctica-climate-...
11margd
https://e360.yale.edu/features/southern-africa-drought-crops
How an El Niño-Driven Drought Brought Hunger to Southern Africa
Jenipher Changwanda and Freddie Clayton • May 20, 2024
A record-breaking drought, fueled by the El Niño weather pattern, has caused widespread crop failure and national emergency declarations in Zambia, Malawi, and Zimbabwe. Without harvests of maize, the staple food, millions in the region are facing a severe hunger crisis.
A World Weather Attribution study found that El Niño — a recurring phenomenon that brings unusually warm waters to the Pacific Ocean and disrupts weather patterns around the world — was the key driver behind the record-breaking drought. Between January and March, when the rains usually fall on {a village in Zambia’s Chongwe District, not far from the capital, Lusaka}, heat waves and temperatures 9 degrees F. (5 degrees C) above average devastated southern Africa.
Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Malawi each declared national disasters as crops failed in a region where 70 percent of smallholder farmers rely on rainfed agriculture for their livelihood. Food prices have risen up to 82 percent in some drought-affected areas, while water scarcity has also impacted livestock and destroyed farmland. According to a United Nations report, more than 18 million people are now in need of urgent humanitarian assistance, with food insecurity levels set to increase dramatically during the regular lean season that typically starts in October. This year, the lean season could begin as early as July as provisions are depleted.
Analysts working for the Famine Early Warning Systems Network said that southern Africa, typically a net exporter of maize — the region’s staple food — would have to import 5 million tons to meet demand.
El Niño ended in April as the Pacific Ocean cooled, but this offers little reprieve. Drought has pushed southern Africa to its limits, and the rains won’t come again until October. The region can scarcely handle the current reality, yet there are serious concerns that events like this are getting worse...
https://e360.yale.edu/features/southern-africa-drought-crops
________________________________
Peter Dynes @PGDynes | 6:36 PM · May 26, 2024:
MD http://MEER.org - building climate resilient Adaptation/Mitigation through SRT (surface reflection technology) {Belfast}
Climate Policy plans that lead to a world beyond 2C of warming is a very, very bad plan. A world beyond 2C is an uninhabitable Earth for billions of people. There better be a better plan than that, and it better be very soon.
Global map (https://x.com/PGDynes/status/1794860150685319458/photo/1)
How an El Niño-Driven Drought Brought Hunger to Southern Africa
Jenipher Changwanda and Freddie Clayton • May 20, 2024
A record-breaking drought, fueled by the El Niño weather pattern, has caused widespread crop failure and national emergency declarations in Zambia, Malawi, and Zimbabwe. Without harvests of maize, the staple food, millions in the region are facing a severe hunger crisis.
A World Weather Attribution study found that El Niño — a recurring phenomenon that brings unusually warm waters to the Pacific Ocean and disrupts weather patterns around the world — was the key driver behind the record-breaking drought. Between January and March, when the rains usually fall on {a village in Zambia’s Chongwe District, not far from the capital, Lusaka}, heat waves and temperatures 9 degrees F. (5 degrees C) above average devastated southern Africa.
Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Malawi each declared national disasters as crops failed in a region where 70 percent of smallholder farmers rely on rainfed agriculture for their livelihood. Food prices have risen up to 82 percent in some drought-affected areas, while water scarcity has also impacted livestock and destroyed farmland. According to a United Nations report, more than 18 million people are now in need of urgent humanitarian assistance, with food insecurity levels set to increase dramatically during the regular lean season that typically starts in October. This year, the lean season could begin as early as July as provisions are depleted.
Analysts working for the Famine Early Warning Systems Network said that southern Africa, typically a net exporter of maize — the region’s staple food — would have to import 5 million tons to meet demand.
El Niño ended in April as the Pacific Ocean cooled, but this offers little reprieve. Drought has pushed southern Africa to its limits, and the rains won’t come again until October. The region can scarcely handle the current reality, yet there are serious concerns that events like this are getting worse...
https://e360.yale.edu/features/southern-africa-drought-crops
________________________________
Peter Dynes @PGDynes | 6:36 PM · May 26, 2024:
MD http://MEER.org - building climate resilient Adaptation/Mitigation through SRT (surface reflection technology) {Belfast}
Climate Policy plans that lead to a world beyond 2C of warming is a very, very bad plan. A world beyond 2C is an uninhabitable Earth for billions of people. There better be a better plan than that, and it better be very soon.
Global map (https://x.com/PGDynes/status/1794860150685319458/photo/1)
12margd
Oldest ever ice offers glimpse of Earth before the ice ages
Elise Cutts | 22 Apr 2024
Climate snapshots suggest carbon dioxide levels were surprisingly modest during ancient warm period
Samples of eerie blue glacial ice from Antarctica are a staggering 6 million years old ... Bubbles in the ice trap air from the Pliocene epoch, a time before the ice ages when the planet was several degrees warmer than today and carbon dioxide (CO2) levels may have been just as high as they are now. But an initial analysis of the bubbles suggests CO2 levels were rather low in the late Pliocene and only sank slightly between 2.7 million and 1 million years ago as the Pliocene ended, the ice ages began, and Earth headed toward a dramatic climate shift that caused ice ages to grow longer and deeper.
...Scientists think high levels of CO2 were responsible for the Pliocene’s warmth. Proxy data from sediment cores, such as the chemical compositions of the shells of tiny marine algae and plant leaf waxes, suggest CO2 was probably about as high as today’s unnaturally elevated level, 425 parts per million (ppm). But not one blue ice sample older than 1 million years exceeded 300 ppm...
The greenhouse gas data also raise questions about a mysterious climate shift that began about 1.2 million years ago. At this time, something caused the ice ages to grow longer and more intense, stretching out from mild 40,000-year cycles to deeper 100,000-year cycles. The leading theory for this flip is that CO2 levels dropped, allowing ice sheets to grow too thick to melt away on a 40,000-year cycle. A new climate record from clues preserved in sediment cores, reported in February, supports that picture. But the snapshots across the transition found in the blue ice suggest CO2 levels held steady between about 220 ppm and 250 ppm. “We don’t see much change in CO2,” {Julia Marks Peterson, a paleoclimatologist at OSU who performed the greenhouse gas analysis. says. “That doesn’t mean there wasn’t one. But it might be smaller than we expected.”
To find out what really triggered the ice age shift, researchers want a continuous core that covers the transition. Finding such a core “is kind of the holy grail of understanding whether the CO2 was part of this change,” {Eric Wolff, a paleoclimatologist at the University of Cambridge who wasn’t involved in the work} says. ... Scientific teams from the United States, Europe, Australia, Japan, South Korea, China, and Russia are all working to find one...
https://www.science.org/content/article/oldest-ever-ice-offers-glimpse-earth-ice...
Elise Cutts | 22 Apr 2024
Climate snapshots suggest carbon dioxide levels were surprisingly modest during ancient warm period
Samples of eerie blue glacial ice from Antarctica are a staggering 6 million years old ... Bubbles in the ice trap air from the Pliocene epoch, a time before the ice ages when the planet was several degrees warmer than today and carbon dioxide (CO2) levels may have been just as high as they are now. But an initial analysis of the bubbles suggests CO2 levels were rather low in the late Pliocene and only sank slightly between 2.7 million and 1 million years ago as the Pliocene ended, the ice ages began, and Earth headed toward a dramatic climate shift that caused ice ages to grow longer and deeper.
...Scientists think high levels of CO2 were responsible for the Pliocene’s warmth. Proxy data from sediment cores, such as the chemical compositions of the shells of tiny marine algae and plant leaf waxes, suggest CO2 was probably about as high as today’s unnaturally elevated level, 425 parts per million (ppm). But not one blue ice sample older than 1 million years exceeded 300 ppm...
The greenhouse gas data also raise questions about a mysterious climate shift that began about 1.2 million years ago. At this time, something caused the ice ages to grow longer and more intense, stretching out from mild 40,000-year cycles to deeper 100,000-year cycles. The leading theory for this flip is that CO2 levels dropped, allowing ice sheets to grow too thick to melt away on a 40,000-year cycle. A new climate record from clues preserved in sediment cores, reported in February, supports that picture. But the snapshots across the transition found in the blue ice suggest CO2 levels held steady between about 220 ppm and 250 ppm. “We don’t see much change in CO2,” {Julia Marks Peterson, a paleoclimatologist at OSU who performed the greenhouse gas analysis. says. “That doesn’t mean there wasn’t one. But it might be smaller than we expected.”
To find out what really triggered the ice age shift, researchers want a continuous core that covers the transition. Finding such a core “is kind of the holy grail of understanding whether the CO2 was part of this change,” {Eric Wolff, a paleoclimatologist at the University of Cambridge who wasn’t involved in the work} says. ... Scientific teams from the United States, Europe, Australia, Japan, South Korea, China, and Russia are all working to find one...
https://www.science.org/content/article/oldest-ever-ice-offers-glimpse-earth-ice...
13margd
ADA (THE ISLAND) (5:01)
movie directed by Mahmut TAŞ | Mar 11, 2024
...ENGLİSH :
Ada; She is a little girl living in a dry village where it has not rained for a long time. Ada's family is considering leaving the village if the thirst continues. Ada is very upset about this and wants to tell us about her village with her camera. She goes to a lake that used to be full of water and visits the island named after her. But she sees that the lake is completely dry, the soil is cracked and there is no water left in it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2cMijeWVcg
movie directed by Mahmut TAŞ | Mar 11, 2024
...ENGLİSH :
Ada; She is a little girl living in a dry village where it has not rained for a long time. Ada's family is considering leaving the village if the thirst continues. Ada is very upset about this and wants to tell us about her village with her camera. She goes to a lake that used to be full of water and visits the island named after her. But she sees that the lake is completely dry, the soil is cracked and there is no water left in it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2cMijeWVcg
14margd
Geez...the CAPITAL of India, not its deserts...
Delhi temperature hits highest ever in India, 52.3 Celsius: weather bureau
AFP | May 29, 2024
Temperatures in India’s capital soared to a national record-high of 52.3 degrees Celsius (126.1 Fahrenheit) ... The India Meteorological Department (IMD), which reported “severe heat-wave conditions”, recorded the temperature in the Delhi suburb of Mungeshpur on Wednesday afternoon, smashing the previous national record in the desert of Rajasthan by more one degree Celsius.
https://insiderpaper.com/indias-capital-hits-record-50-5-celsius-weather-bureau/
Delhi temperature hits highest ever in India, 52.3 Celsius: weather bureau
AFP | May 29, 2024
Temperatures in India’s capital soared to a national record-high of 52.3 degrees Celsius (126.1 Fahrenheit) ... The India Meteorological Department (IMD), which reported “severe heat-wave conditions”, recorded the temperature in the Delhi suburb of Mungeshpur on Wednesday afternoon, smashing the previous national record in the desert of Rajasthan by more one degree Celsius.
https://insiderpaper.com/indias-capital-hits-record-50-5-celsius-weather-bureau/
15margd
'A great sadness': Venezuela is first Andean country to lose all of its glaciers
Albinson Linares, Noticias Telemundo | May 25, 2024
Scientists explain the loss of the Humboldt Glacier {aka La Corona, or "the crown" in Spanish}, the last in the Sierra Nevada, which they believe makes the South American country the first in modern history to lose all its glaciers.
For the people of the Venezuelan state of Mérida, the glaciated peaks of its Sierra Nevada have been a source of pride since time immemorial: The mountains are part of the regional identity and the origin of various legends in the area that relate them to mythical white eagles.
However, none of the six glaciers that crowned the mountains remain ...
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/-great-sadness-venezuela-first-andean-countr...
Albinson Linares, Noticias Telemundo | May 25, 2024
Scientists explain the loss of the Humboldt Glacier {aka La Corona, or "the crown" in Spanish}, the last in the Sierra Nevada, which they believe makes the South American country the first in modern history to lose all its glaciers.
For the people of the Venezuelan state of Mérida, the glaciated peaks of its Sierra Nevada have been a source of pride since time immemorial: The mountains are part of the regional identity and the origin of various legends in the area that relate them to mythical white eagles.
However, none of the six glaciers that crowned the mountains remain ...
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/-great-sadness-venezuela-first-andean-countr...
16margd
Peter Dynes @PGDynes | 10:30 AM · May 30, 2024 {X}:
MD http://MEER.org - building climate resilient Adaptation/Mitigation through SRT (surface reflection technology) {Belfast}
Deaths caused by #heat in the #US and elsewhere are only heading in one direction - up. Don't expect this trend to reverse anytime soon. The #climate is heading into uncharted territory at this point and the risk of a seriously large event grows by the day.
Graph 10X heat deaths Maricopa Co., AZ 2014-2024 (https://x.com/PGDynes/status/1796187309467217993/photo/1)
______________________________________
Delhi records 52.9°C, how does it compare to world record?
TOI | 29 May 2024
{Death Valley, 54.4C (2023) & 56.7C (1913)}
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/110541844.cms?utm_source=contento...
MD http://MEER.org - building climate resilient Adaptation/Mitigation through SRT (surface reflection technology) {Belfast}
Deaths caused by #heat in the #US and elsewhere are only heading in one direction - up. Don't expect this trend to reverse anytime soon. The #climate is heading into uncharted territory at this point and the risk of a seriously large event grows by the day.
Graph 10X heat deaths Maricopa Co., AZ 2014-2024 (https://x.com/PGDynes/status/1796187309467217993/photo/1)
______________________________________
Delhi records 52.9°C, how does it compare to world record?
TOI | 29 May 2024
{Death Valley, 54.4C (2023) & 56.7C (1913)}
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/110541844.cms?utm_source=contento...
17margd
Interesting -- also, in addition to cleanup of China's smog, ships changing to cleaner fuel made for fewer particle emissions, affecting ocean temperatures...
Pollution Paradox: How Cleaning Up Smog Drives Ocean Warming
Fred Pearce • May 28, 2024
New research indicates that the decline in smog particles from China’s air cleanups caused the recent extreme heat waves in the Pacific. Scientists are grappling with the fact that reducing such pollution, while essential for public health, is also heating the atmosphere...
https://e360.yale.edu/features/aerosols-warming-climate-change
----------------------------------------------
Hai Wang et al. 2024. Atmosphere teleconnections from abatement of China aerosol emissions exacerbate Northeast Pacific warm blob events. PNAS May 6, 2024 121 (21) e2313797121 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2313797121 https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2313797121
Significance
The period of 2010 to 2020 has witnessed the warmest Northeast Pacific (NEP) sea surface temperatures ever recorded, with several prolonged extreme ocean warming events. Though year-to-year internal climate variability may partially explain the appearance of these events, why they occurred dramatically more frequent remains elusive. We find that the rapid aerosol abatement in China triggers atmospheric circulation anomalies beyond its source region, driving a substantial mean surface warming in the NEP, which provides a favorable condition for extreme ocean warming events. Our findings provide an important insight into the mechanisms of the North Pacific ocean-atmosphere changes, highlighting the need to consider the exacerbated risks arising from a reduction in anthropogenic aerosol emissions in assessment of climate change impacts.
Pollution Paradox: How Cleaning Up Smog Drives Ocean Warming
Fred Pearce • May 28, 2024
New research indicates that the decline in smog particles from China’s air cleanups caused the recent extreme heat waves in the Pacific. Scientists are grappling with the fact that reducing such pollution, while essential for public health, is also heating the atmosphere...
https://e360.yale.edu/features/aerosols-warming-climate-change
----------------------------------------------
Hai Wang et al. 2024. Atmosphere teleconnections from abatement of China aerosol emissions exacerbate Northeast Pacific warm blob events. PNAS May 6, 2024 121 (21) e2313797121 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2313797121 https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2313797121
Significance
The period of 2010 to 2020 has witnessed the warmest Northeast Pacific (NEP) sea surface temperatures ever recorded, with several prolonged extreme ocean warming events. Though year-to-year internal climate variability may partially explain the appearance of these events, why they occurred dramatically more frequent remains elusive. We find that the rapid aerosol abatement in China triggers atmospheric circulation anomalies beyond its source region, driving a substantial mean surface warming in the NEP, which provides a favorable condition for extreme ocean warming events. Our findings provide an important insight into the mechanisms of the North Pacific ocean-atmosphere changes, highlighting the need to consider the exacerbated risks arising from a reduction in anthropogenic aerosol emissions in assessment of climate change impacts.
18margd
DW News @dwnews | 10:15 PM · Jun 1, 2024:
"There is no water in the pipeline, we all rely on this water tanker."
People in India are struggling with a water shortage amid a record-breaking heat wave.
1:30 (https://x.com/dwnews/status/1797089501992645116)
_________________________________
As reservoirs go dry, Mexico City and Bogotá are staring down ‘Day Zero’
Jake Bittle | May 23, 2024
Cape Town, which beat a water crisis in 2018, holds lessons for cities grappling with an El Niño-fueled drought.
...heat dome sitting atop Mexico is shattering temperature records in Central America, and both Central and South America are wasting beneath a drought driven by the climate phenomenon known as El Niño, which periodically brings exceptionally dry weather to the Southern Hemisphere. Droughts in the region have grown more intense thanks to warmer winter temperatures and long-term aridification fueled by climate change. The present dry spell has shriveled river systems in Mexico and Colombia and lowered water levels in the reservoirs that supply their growing cities. Officials in both cities have warned that, in June, their water systems might reach a “Day Zero” in which they fail altogether unless residents cut usage.
In warning about the potential for a Day Zero in the water system, both cities are referencing the famous example set by Cape Town, South Africa, which made global headlines in 2018 when it almost ran out of water. The city was months away from a total collapse of its reservoir system when it mounted an unprecedented public awareness campaign and rolled out strict fees on water consumption. These measures succeeded in pulling the city back from the brink...
https://grist.org/drought/mexico-city-bogota-water-day-zero-cape-town/
"There is no water in the pipeline, we all rely on this water tanker."
People in India are struggling with a water shortage amid a record-breaking heat wave.
1:30 (https://x.com/dwnews/status/1797089501992645116)
_________________________________
As reservoirs go dry, Mexico City and Bogotá are staring down ‘Day Zero’
Jake Bittle | May 23, 2024
Cape Town, which beat a water crisis in 2018, holds lessons for cities grappling with an El Niño-fueled drought.
...heat dome sitting atop Mexico is shattering temperature records in Central America, and both Central and South America are wasting beneath a drought driven by the climate phenomenon known as El Niño, which periodically brings exceptionally dry weather to the Southern Hemisphere. Droughts in the region have grown more intense thanks to warmer winter temperatures and long-term aridification fueled by climate change. The present dry spell has shriveled river systems in Mexico and Colombia and lowered water levels in the reservoirs that supply their growing cities. Officials in both cities have warned that, in June, their water systems might reach a “Day Zero” in which they fail altogether unless residents cut usage.
In warning about the potential for a Day Zero in the water system, both cities are referencing the famous example set by Cape Town, South Africa, which made global headlines in 2018 when it almost ran out of water. The city was months away from a total collapse of its reservoir system when it mounted an unprecedented public awareness campaign and rolled out strict fees on water consumption. These measures succeeded in pulling the city back from the brink...
https://grist.org/drought/mexico-city-bogota-water-day-zero-cape-town/
19margd
Heatstroke kills 33 polling staff in a state on last day of India election
Aljazeera | 2 June 2024
While several people have died during the intense heatwave, dozens dying in one day marks an especially grim toll...
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/2/heatstroke-kills-33-polling-staff-in-a-s...
_____________________________
Meanwhile, a year ago in Texas:
Texas governor signs bill rescinding water breaks as deadly heat grips state
Maanvi Singh | 23 Jun 2023
Measure ... will nullify ordinances enacted by Austin and Dallas that mandate 10-minute breaks for construction workers every four hours. It also prevents any other local governments from passing similar worker protections.
... the federal Occupational Safety and Health Administration (Osha) does not have a national heat protection standard. ...
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jun/23/greg-abbott-texas-governor-bill-...
___________________________
Dehydrated, nauseous, sunburned Floridians flood emergency rooms when temperatures rise
Cindy Krischer Goodman | June 1, 2024
State ranks second in the nation for heat-related 911 calls in May...
https://www.sun-sentinel.com/2024/06/01/overheated-floridians-flood-emergency-ro...
-------------------------------
Heat-Related EMS Activation Surveillance Dashboard {NEMSIS}
The Heat-Related EMS Activation Surveillance Dashboard, created in partnership between the HHS Office of Climate Change and Health Equity and the DOT National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, uses nationally submitted Emergency Medical Services (EMS) data to track EMS responses to people experiencing heat-related emergencies in the pre-hospital setting.
https://nemsis.org/heat-related-ems-activation-surveillance-dashboard/
Aljazeera | 2 June 2024
While several people have died during the intense heatwave, dozens dying in one day marks an especially grim toll...
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/2/heatstroke-kills-33-polling-staff-in-a-s...
_____________________________
Meanwhile, a year ago in Texas:
Texas governor signs bill rescinding water breaks as deadly heat grips state
Maanvi Singh | 23 Jun 2023
Measure ... will nullify ordinances enacted by Austin and Dallas that mandate 10-minute breaks for construction workers every four hours. It also prevents any other local governments from passing similar worker protections.
... the federal Occupational Safety and Health Administration (Osha) does not have a national heat protection standard. ...
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jun/23/greg-abbott-texas-governor-bill-...
___________________________
Dehydrated, nauseous, sunburned Floridians flood emergency rooms when temperatures rise
Cindy Krischer Goodman | June 1, 2024
State ranks second in the nation for heat-related 911 calls in May...
https://www.sun-sentinel.com/2024/06/01/overheated-floridians-flood-emergency-ro...
-------------------------------
Heat-Related EMS Activation Surveillance Dashboard {NEMSIS}
The Heat-Related EMS Activation Surveillance Dashboard, created in partnership between the HHS Office of Climate Change and Health Equity and the DOT National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, uses nationally submitted Emergency Medical Services (EMS) data to track EMS responses to people experiencing heat-related emergencies in the pre-hospital setting.
https://nemsis.org/heat-related-ems-activation-surveillance-dashboard/
20margd
Relics of a Warmer Past, Some Species May Be Suited to a Hotter Future
E360 Digest | May 30, 2024
...By the end of this century, the planet is expected to be around as warm as it was 130,000 years ago. Species that arose during this time would be able to withstand a hotter climate, scientists say. This is particularly relevant in the tropics, where heat is reaching new extremes.
Warming will diminish the variety of plants and animals residing in tropical lands, but by how much? Past research suggests these areas will see, on average, a 54 percent drop in the number of resident species. But a new modeling study, published in Nature Ecology and Evolution, puts that figure at 39 percent.
The study offers hope for some tropical species facing down a hotter future, though the findings are, researchers note, only a marginal improvement on previous estimates...
https://e360.yale.edu/digest/evolution-climate-adaptation-study
E360 Digest | May 30, 2024
...By the end of this century, the planet is expected to be around as warm as it was 130,000 years ago. Species that arose during this time would be able to withstand a hotter climate, scientists say. This is particularly relevant in the tropics, where heat is reaching new extremes.
Warming will diminish the variety of plants and animals residing in tropical lands, but by how much? Past research suggests these areas will see, on average, a 54 percent drop in the number of resident species. But a new modeling study, published in Nature Ecology and Evolution, puts that figure at 39 percent.
The study offers hope for some tropical species facing down a hotter future, though the findings are, researchers note, only a marginal improvement on previous estimates...
https://e360.yale.edu/digest/evolution-climate-adaptation-study
21margd
Why some wild animals are getting insomnia
Benji Jones | Jun 2, 2024
Scientists put sleep trackers on a bunch of wild pigs. The results reveal a troubling trend.
...A pair of new studies on mammals in Europe shows that extreme heat impairs their sleep, too, often significantly so. Wild boars in the Czech Republic, for example, slept 17 percent less during hot, summer days, compared to colder months, one of the papers found, “potentially leading to sleep deprivation.” The other showed that deer fawns in Ireland similarly had shorter and worse quality sleep on scorching days.
Among the only studies of sleep in wild animals, the research points to yet another way that climate change will likely reshape the natural world. As summers heat up, animals might find it harder to sleep in the habitats they call home, potentially weakening their immune systems and chances of survival. It may also push these creatures to new places, where they might spread disease and disrupt carefully balanced ecosystems....
https://www.vox.com/down-to-earth/353035/climate-change-sleep-wild-animals-heat
------------------------------------------
Euan Mortlock et al. 2023. Sleep in the wild: the importance of individual effects and environmental conditions on sleep behaviour in wild boar. Proceedings of the Royal Society B, May 2024, Volume 291, Issue 2023
https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2023.2115 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspb.2023.2115
ABSTRACTt
... sleep in the wild boar (Sus scrofa) over an annual cycle. In support of the hypothesis that environmental conditions determine thermoregulatory challenges, which regulate sleep, we show that sleep quantity, efficiency and quality are reduced on warmer days, sleep is less fragmented in longer and more humid days, while greater snow cover and rainfall promote sleep quality. Importantly, this longest and most detailed analysis of sleep in wild animals to date reveals large inter- and intra-individual variation. Specifically, short-sleepers sleep up to 46% less than long-sleepers but do not compensate for their short sleep through greater plasticity or quality, suggesting they may pay higher costs of sleep deprivation. Given the major role of sleep in health, our results suggest that global warming and the associated increase in extreme climatic events are likely to negatively impact sleep, and consequently health, in wildlife, particularly in nocturnal animals.
-----------------------------------------------
Euan Mortlock et al. 2024. Early life sleep in free-living fallow deer, Dama dama: the role of ontogeny, environment and individual differences. Animal Behaviour, Volume 211, May 2024, Pages 163-180. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.anbehav.2024.03.006 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0003347224000861#:~:text=Fall....
ABSTRACT
...19 free-ranging fallow deer fawns, Dama dama, during the first 5 weeks of life. Specifically, we examined how sleep developed, how it differed between and within individuals, and how it was affected by environmental conditions, using accelerometer-derived estimates of sleep and a Bayesian hierarchical modelling approach. We showed that sleep duration rapidly decreased and became more consolidated, quickly approaching an adult-like condition. Moreover, fawns exhibited consistent individual differences in sleep quantity, fragmentation and quality, as well as in the rate at which sleep developed. Finally, environmental conditions affecting thermoregulation mediated sleep behaviour; sleep time was reduced and was of lower quality on warmer days, and sleep quality was further compromised in more humid conditions but was higher with greater rainfall. While sleep ontogeny in free-ranging fawns is partially shaped by the environment, our study reveals previously unknown individual differences in sleep behaviour present from birth, and in the rate of sleep development. We suggest that such individual differences may represent pace-of-life syndromes and may have important consequences for individual fitness later in life.
Benji Jones | Jun 2, 2024
Scientists put sleep trackers on a bunch of wild pigs. The results reveal a troubling trend.
...A pair of new studies on mammals in Europe shows that extreme heat impairs their sleep, too, often significantly so. Wild boars in the Czech Republic, for example, slept 17 percent less during hot, summer days, compared to colder months, one of the papers found, “potentially leading to sleep deprivation.” The other showed that deer fawns in Ireland similarly had shorter and worse quality sleep on scorching days.
Among the only studies of sleep in wild animals, the research points to yet another way that climate change will likely reshape the natural world. As summers heat up, animals might find it harder to sleep in the habitats they call home, potentially weakening their immune systems and chances of survival. It may also push these creatures to new places, where they might spread disease and disrupt carefully balanced ecosystems....
https://www.vox.com/down-to-earth/353035/climate-change-sleep-wild-animals-heat
------------------------------------------
Euan Mortlock et al. 2023. Sleep in the wild: the importance of individual effects and environmental conditions on sleep behaviour in wild boar. Proceedings of the Royal Society B, May 2024, Volume 291, Issue 2023
https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2023.2115 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspb.2023.2115
ABSTRACTt
... sleep in the wild boar (Sus scrofa) over an annual cycle. In support of the hypothesis that environmental conditions determine thermoregulatory challenges, which regulate sleep, we show that sleep quantity, efficiency and quality are reduced on warmer days, sleep is less fragmented in longer and more humid days, while greater snow cover and rainfall promote sleep quality. Importantly, this longest and most detailed analysis of sleep in wild animals to date reveals large inter- and intra-individual variation. Specifically, short-sleepers sleep up to 46% less than long-sleepers but do not compensate for their short sleep through greater plasticity or quality, suggesting they may pay higher costs of sleep deprivation. Given the major role of sleep in health, our results suggest that global warming and the associated increase in extreme climatic events are likely to negatively impact sleep, and consequently health, in wildlife, particularly in nocturnal animals.
-----------------------------------------------
Euan Mortlock et al. 2024. Early life sleep in free-living fallow deer, Dama dama: the role of ontogeny, environment and individual differences. Animal Behaviour, Volume 211, May 2024, Pages 163-180. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.anbehav.2024.03.006 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0003347224000861#:~:text=Fall....
ABSTRACT
...19 free-ranging fallow deer fawns, Dama dama, during the first 5 weeks of life. Specifically, we examined how sleep developed, how it differed between and within individuals, and how it was affected by environmental conditions, using accelerometer-derived estimates of sleep and a Bayesian hierarchical modelling approach. We showed that sleep duration rapidly decreased and became more consolidated, quickly approaching an adult-like condition. Moreover, fawns exhibited consistent individual differences in sleep quantity, fragmentation and quality, as well as in the rate at which sleep developed. Finally, environmental conditions affecting thermoregulation mediated sleep behaviour; sleep time was reduced and was of lower quality on warmer days, and sleep quality was further compromised in more humid conditions but was higher with greater rainfall. While sleep ontogeny in free-ranging fawns is partially shaped by the environment, our study reveals previously unknown individual differences in sleep behaviour present from birth, and in the rate of sleep development. We suggest that such individual differences may represent pace-of-life syndromes and may have important consequences for individual fitness later in life.
22margd
Anti-tobacco paradigm shift needed? (~ anti-tobacco)
Fergus Green et al. 2024. POLICY FORUM: No new fossil fuel projects: The norm we need. A social-moral norm against new fossil fuel projects has strong potential to contribute to achieving global climate goals. Science
30 May 2024. Vol 384, Issue 6699, pp. 954-957. DOI: 10.1126/science.adn6533 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adn6533
Abstract
Global production and use of fossil fuels continue to expand, making the goals of the Paris Agreement ever more difficult to achieve. Echoing calls made by climate advocates for years, the groundbreaking decision at the United Nations (UN) climate meeting in late 2023 (COP28) calls on parties “to contribute to…transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems.” The normative case for ultimately phasing out fossil fuels is strong, and in some cases, it is feasible to phase out projects before the end of their economic life. However, the movement should focus on a more feasible, yet crucial, step on the road to fossil fuel phaseout: stopping fossil fuel expansion. Proponents of ambitious climate action should direct policy and advocacy efforts toward building a global “No New Fossil” norm, encompassing exploration for and development of new fossil fuel extraction sites, and permitting and construction of new, large-scale fossil fuel–consuming infrastructure.
Fergus Green et al. 2024. POLICY FORUM: No new fossil fuel projects: The norm we need. A social-moral norm against new fossil fuel projects has strong potential to contribute to achieving global climate goals. Science
30 May 2024. Vol 384, Issue 6699, pp. 954-957. DOI: 10.1126/science.adn6533 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adn6533
Abstract
Global production and use of fossil fuels continue to expand, making the goals of the Paris Agreement ever more difficult to achieve. Echoing calls made by climate advocates for years, the groundbreaking decision at the United Nations (UN) climate meeting in late 2023 (COP28) calls on parties “to contribute to…transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems.” The normative case for ultimately phasing out fossil fuels is strong, and in some cases, it is feasible to phase out projects before the end of their economic life. However, the movement should focus on a more feasible, yet crucial, step on the road to fossil fuel phaseout: stopping fossil fuel expansion. Proponents of ambitious climate action should direct policy and advocacy efforts toward building a global “No New Fossil” norm, encompassing exploration for and development of new fossil fuel extraction sites, and permitting and construction of new, large-scale fossil fuel–consuming infrastructure.
23margd
UN chief says world is on ‘highway to climate hell’ as planet endures 12 straight months of unprecedented heat
Laura Paddison | June 5, 2024
...Every single month from June 2023 to May 2024 was the world’s hottest such month on record, Copernicus data showed {the European Union’s climate monitoring service.}.
The 12-month heat streak was “shocking but not surprising” given human-caused climate change, said Carlo Buontempo, the director of Copernicus, who warned of worse to come. Unless planet-warming fossil fuel pollution is slashed, “this string of hottest months will be remembered as comparatively cold,” he said.
Copernicus released its data the same day as United Nations Secretary General António Guterres made an impassioned speech in New York about climate change, slamming fossil fuel companies as the “godfathers of climate chaos” and, for the first time, explicitly calling on all countries to ban advertising their fossil fuel products.
Guterres urged world leaders to swiftly take control of the spiraling climate crisis or face dangerous tipping points. “We are playing Russian roulette with our planet,” he said Wednesday. “We need an exit ramp off the highway to climate hell.” ...
https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/05/climate/12-months-record-heat-un-speech/index.htm...
Laura Paddison | June 5, 2024
...Every single month from June 2023 to May 2024 was the world’s hottest such month on record, Copernicus data showed {the European Union’s climate monitoring service.}.
The 12-month heat streak was “shocking but not surprising” given human-caused climate change, said Carlo Buontempo, the director of Copernicus, who warned of worse to come. Unless planet-warming fossil fuel pollution is slashed, “this string of hottest months will be remembered as comparatively cold,” he said.
Copernicus released its data the same day as United Nations Secretary General António Guterres made an impassioned speech in New York about climate change, slamming fossil fuel companies as the “godfathers of climate chaos” and, for the first time, explicitly calling on all countries to ban advertising their fossil fuel products.
Guterres urged world leaders to swiftly take control of the spiraling climate crisis or face dangerous tipping points. “We are playing Russian roulette with our planet,” he said Wednesday. “We need an exit ramp off the highway to climate hell.” ...
https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/05/climate/12-months-record-heat-un-speech/index.htm...
24kiparsky
Alameda blocks geoengineering test
I'm a bit baffled by this. I can understand how the word "geoengineering" sounds scary to people who are not familiar with what it involves, but we're not exactly at a stage in human history where we can be choosy. Temperatures in the hotter regions of the globe, including notably New Delhi, are rising to the point where megadeath heat events are now a certainty in the next one to two decades. Even if we were to stop burning all fossil fuels tomorrow, global temperatures would still be rising for decades or centuries as the CO2 in the atmosphere continues to do its work. Even given a few technical, social, and political miracles, it's safe to say that nobody reading this will ever live in a world where global temperatures are not rising.
Under these circumstances, what sense does it make to block experiments aimed at understanding techniques that can cool the atmosphere?
It seems to me that far too many people, including those in positions to make important decisions, really don't understand the sort of stakes that we're playing for now. For what it's worth, just one threatened city, New Delhi, has a population of 33 million people. There is literally no way to evacuate those people to cooler climes, and there are no cooler climes that are willing to accept that many people. And that's just one of the cities tied to the track of this disaster, which, again, is not a matter of "if", but of "when".
While I understand that the idealists object to these technologies on idealistic grounds, but weighed against the impending deaths of literally hundreds of millions of people, the warm comfort of idle idealism seems like a luxury that we can't really afford.
I'm a bit baffled by this. I can understand how the word "geoengineering" sounds scary to people who are not familiar with what it involves, but we're not exactly at a stage in human history where we can be choosy. Temperatures in the hotter regions of the globe, including notably New Delhi, are rising to the point where megadeath heat events are now a certainty in the next one to two decades. Even if we were to stop burning all fossil fuels tomorrow, global temperatures would still be rising for decades or centuries as the CO2 in the atmosphere continues to do its work. Even given a few technical, social, and political miracles, it's safe to say that nobody reading this will ever live in a world where global temperatures are not rising.
Under these circumstances, what sense does it make to block experiments aimed at understanding techniques that can cool the atmosphere?
It seems to me that far too many people, including those in positions to make important decisions, really don't understand the sort of stakes that we're playing for now. For what it's worth, just one threatened city, New Delhi, has a population of 33 million people. There is literally no way to evacuate those people to cooler climes, and there are no cooler climes that are willing to accept that many people. And that's just one of the cities tied to the track of this disaster, which, again, is not a matter of "if", but of "when".
While I understand that the idealists object to these technologies on idealistic grounds, but weighed against the impending deaths of literally hundreds of millions of people, the warm comfort of idle idealism seems like a luxury that we can't really afford.
25margd
Everyone You Know Will Eventually Be Highly Vulnerable to Extreme Heat
Zahra Hirji | June 7, 2024
As we get older, our bodies become less adept at responding to high temperatures. On a warming planet with an aging population, that’s a problem.
When a heat dome shattered temperature records across the Western US and Canada in June 2021, the resulting fatalities exposed a pattern. In Portland, Oregon, and surrounding Multnomah County, 56 of the 72 people who died were aged 60 and up. In British Columbia, people 60-plus accounted for 555 of the 619 fatalities. Just over a year later, a sizzling June, July and August in England caused roughly 2,800 excess deaths among people 65 and older. More than 1,000 of them occurred over four days in late July.
...As we age, our ability to adapt to heat diminishes.
...sweat, which releases heat when it evaporates. Compared to young and middle-aged people, older people don’t sweat as much
...increased circulation of blood, which draws heat from deep inside the body to the skin, where it can escape. The heart has to sometimes pump two to four times more blood each minute than it would on a cooler day
...Many of the medications used to treat {chronic} health conditions also impair {heat} response, such as by decreasing the ability to sweat or increasing urination that can trigger dehydration.
...warning signs of dangerous heat can also be more difficult for older people to self-identify.
...Many older adults also live alone and are socially isolated, making them less likely to have a support network.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-07/why-older-adults-are-uniquely...
Zahra Hirji | June 7, 2024
As we get older, our bodies become less adept at responding to high temperatures. On a warming planet with an aging population, that’s a problem.
When a heat dome shattered temperature records across the Western US and Canada in June 2021, the resulting fatalities exposed a pattern. In Portland, Oregon, and surrounding Multnomah County, 56 of the 72 people who died were aged 60 and up. In British Columbia, people 60-plus accounted for 555 of the 619 fatalities. Just over a year later, a sizzling June, July and August in England caused roughly 2,800 excess deaths among people 65 and older. More than 1,000 of them occurred over four days in late July.
...As we age, our ability to adapt to heat diminishes.
...sweat, which releases heat when it evaporates. Compared to young and middle-aged people, older people don’t sweat as much
...increased circulation of blood, which draws heat from deep inside the body to the skin, where it can escape. The heart has to sometimes pump two to four times more blood each minute than it would on a cooler day
...Many of the medications used to treat {chronic} health conditions also impair {heat} response, such as by decreasing the ability to sweat or increasing urination that can trigger dehydration.
...warning signs of dangerous heat can also be more difficult for older people to self-identify.
...Many older adults also live alone and are socially isolated, making them less likely to have a support network.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-07/why-older-adults-are-uniquely...
26margd
Canada is not worried about just climate emergencies, but quite a few are...
Disruptions on the Horizon
Policy Horizons Canada | 2024
37 p
... Conclusion
What could the future look like if Canadians cannot meet their basic needs? Or if the healthcare system collapses, democracies break down globally, or cyberattacks regularly disrupt everyday life? What if these disruptions occur at the same time, creating a perfect storm and a unique set of combined circumstances for Canada to face?
More than ever, the world is filled with uncertainty and unpredictability. A disruption’s impact could depend on the scale and speed with which it occurs, and how it interacts with other disruptions. Being aware of possible future disruptions and prepared for various scenarios can help mitigate risk and help anticipate what is on the horizon. While the disruptions in this report are not guaranteed to take place, they are plausible—and overlooking them may carry risks in various policy areas.
These disruptions can help decision makers think through what could occur and prepare for a wide range of possibilities. They can also facilitate conversation about policy, decision making, and how these situations might play out. Foresight and conversations about future disruptions can help Canada’s leaders identify challenges, harness possibilities, and create resilient, sustainable policy in the face of the unexpected.
https://horizons.service.canada.ca/en/2024/disruptions/
Disruptions on the Horizon
Policy Horizons Canada | 2024
37 p
... Conclusion
What could the future look like if Canadians cannot meet their basic needs? Or if the healthcare system collapses, democracies break down globally, or cyberattacks regularly disrupt everyday life? What if these disruptions occur at the same time, creating a perfect storm and a unique set of combined circumstances for Canada to face?
More than ever, the world is filled with uncertainty and unpredictability. A disruption’s impact could depend on the scale and speed with which it occurs, and how it interacts with other disruptions. Being aware of possible future disruptions and prepared for various scenarios can help mitigate risk and help anticipate what is on the horizon. While the disruptions in this report are not guaranteed to take place, they are plausible—and overlooking them may carry risks in various policy areas.
These disruptions can help decision makers think through what could occur and prepare for a wide range of possibilities. They can also facilitate conversation about policy, decision making, and how these situations might play out. Foresight and conversations about future disruptions can help Canada’s leaders identify challenges, harness possibilities, and create resilient, sustainable policy in the face of the unexpected.
https://horizons.service.canada.ca/en/2024/disruptions/
27margd
It seemed to me that fed (NMFS) authority in coastal fishing was already exceedingly weak... Ironic and sad that a challenge to NMFS could weaken fed regulation in such areas as pollution, climate change, and endangered species...
A Key Court Ruling Could Weaken U.S. Environmental Protections
Jody Freeman | June 12, 2024
The U.S. Supreme Court ... scrapping the Chevron doctrine could have major impacts on federal regulation in such areas as pollution, climate change, and endangered species...
The 1984 case Chevron v. National Resources Defense Council, says that where Congress has not expressed itself clearly, leaving gaps or ambiguities in federal statutes, agencies should be allowed to adopt the interpretation they prefer, so long as that interpretation is reasonable.
The cases now before the Supreme Court — Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo and Relentless Inc. v. Department of Commerce — were brought by commercial fishing groups challenging a National Marine Fisheries Service rule, and a decision is expected in the coming weeks. ...
Overturning Chevron would reduce government’s ability to respond to new scientific findings and technological developments.
If Chevron is abandoned, agencies will have to defend every interpretive choice as the single best way to read a statute.
Agency officials are more expert in regulatory implementation and more politically accountable than are federal judges.
https://e360.yale.edu/features/chevron-doctrine-supreme-court
A Key Court Ruling Could Weaken U.S. Environmental Protections
Jody Freeman | June 12, 2024
The U.S. Supreme Court ... scrapping the Chevron doctrine could have major impacts on federal regulation in such areas as pollution, climate change, and endangered species...
The 1984 case Chevron v. National Resources Defense Council, says that where Congress has not expressed itself clearly, leaving gaps or ambiguities in federal statutes, agencies should be allowed to adopt the interpretation they prefer, so long as that interpretation is reasonable.
The cases now before the Supreme Court — Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo and Relentless Inc. v. Department of Commerce — were brought by commercial fishing groups challenging a National Marine Fisheries Service rule, and a decision is expected in the coming weeks. ...
Overturning Chevron would reduce government’s ability to respond to new scientific findings and technological developments.
If Chevron is abandoned, agencies will have to defend every interpretive choice as the single best way to read a statute.
Agency officials are more expert in regulatory implementation and more politically accountable than are federal judges.
https://e360.yale.edu/features/chevron-doctrine-supreme-court
28margd
‘It’s unbearable’: in ever-hotter US cities, air conditioning is no longer enough
Delaney Nolan | 11 Jun 2024
Record-breaking temperatures in the last few years shatter the myth that air conditioning alone will keep people safe
...“The home environment can actually be a substantial risk in and of itself,” said Jaime Madrigano, a public health researcher with Johns Hopkins University. “We find, during extreme heat events, that more people die in their homes than in other types of places. They’re not making it to the hospital.”
Storm-battered homes ... lack proper insulation. Power grids stumble and fail during periods of high demand. And many cooling systems are simply not powerful enough to contend with the worsening heat. Some experts have begun to warn of the looming threat of a “Heat Katrina” – a mass-casualty heat event. A study* published last year that modeled heatwave-related blackouts in different cities showed that a two-day blackout in Phoenix could lead to the deaths of more than 12,000 people...
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jun/11/air-conditioning-protect...
----------------------------------------
* Brian Stone Jr. et al. 2023. How Blackouts during Heat Waves Amplify Mortality and Morbidity Risk. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2023, 57, 22, 8245–8255. Publication Date:May 23, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.2c09588 https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.2c09588
Abstract
The recent concurrence of electrical grid failure events in time with extreme temperatures is compounding the population health risks of extreme weather episodes. Here, we combine simulated heat exposure data during historical heat wave events in three large U.S. cities to assess the degree to which heat-related mortality and morbidity change in response to a concurrent electrical grid failure event. We develop a novel approach to estimating individually experienced temperature to approximate how personal-level heat exposure changes on an hourly basis, accounting for both outdoor and building-interior exposures. We find the concurrence of a multiday blackout event with heat wave conditions to more than double the estimated rate of heat-related mortality across all three cities, and to require medical attention for between 3% (Atlanta) and more than 50% (Phoenix) of the total urban population in present and future time periods. Our results highlight the need for enhanced electrical grid resilience and support a more spatially expansive use of tree canopy and high albedo roofing materials to lessen heat exposures during compound climate and infrastructure failure events.
Delaney Nolan | 11 Jun 2024
Record-breaking temperatures in the last few years shatter the myth that air conditioning alone will keep people safe
...“The home environment can actually be a substantial risk in and of itself,” said Jaime Madrigano, a public health researcher with Johns Hopkins University. “We find, during extreme heat events, that more people die in their homes than in other types of places. They’re not making it to the hospital.”
Storm-battered homes ... lack proper insulation. Power grids stumble and fail during periods of high demand. And many cooling systems are simply not powerful enough to contend with the worsening heat. Some experts have begun to warn of the looming threat of a “Heat Katrina” – a mass-casualty heat event. A study* published last year that modeled heatwave-related blackouts in different cities showed that a two-day blackout in Phoenix could lead to the deaths of more than 12,000 people...
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jun/11/air-conditioning-protect...
----------------------------------------
* Brian Stone Jr. et al. 2023. How Blackouts during Heat Waves Amplify Mortality and Morbidity Risk. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2023, 57, 22, 8245–8255. Publication Date:May 23, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.2c09588 https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.2c09588
Abstract
The recent concurrence of electrical grid failure events in time with extreme temperatures is compounding the population health risks of extreme weather episodes. Here, we combine simulated heat exposure data during historical heat wave events in three large U.S. cities to assess the degree to which heat-related mortality and morbidity change in response to a concurrent electrical grid failure event. We develop a novel approach to estimating individually experienced temperature to approximate how personal-level heat exposure changes on an hourly basis, accounting for both outdoor and building-interior exposures. We find the concurrence of a multiday blackout event with heat wave conditions to more than double the estimated rate of heat-related mortality across all three cities, and to require medical attention for between 3% (Atlanta) and more than 50% (Phoenix) of the total urban population in present and future time periods. Our results highlight the need for enhanced electrical grid resilience and support a more spatially expansive use of tree canopy and high albedo roofing materials to lessen heat exposures during compound climate and infrastructure failure events.
29kiparsky
Environmental Defense Fund to study solar geo
At last, a tepid commitment to investigate a technology that might buy us a little more time.
I note that there's the requisite hand-wringing about so-called "moral hazard" - "what if we make things less bad and some people don't die and then industry emits more CO2" - but whatever. At least they're finally willing to ask the right question, which is "how does this actually work and what, if anything, is it good for?".
At last, a tepid commitment to investigate a technology that might buy us a little more time.
I note that there's the requisite hand-wringing about so-called "moral hazard" - "what if we make things less bad and some people don't die and then industry emits more CO2" - but whatever. At least they're finally willing to ask the right question, which is "how does this actually work and what, if anything, is it good for?".
30margd
Trump will dismantle key US weather and science agency, climate experts fear
Dharna Noor | 26 Apr 2024
Climate experts fear Donald Trump will follow a blueprint created by his allies to gut the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa), disbanding its work on climate science and tailoring its operations to business interests.
...The plan to “break up Noaa is laid out in the Project 2025 document written by more than 350 rightwingers and helmed by the Heritage Foundation. Called the Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise, it is meant to guide the first 180 days of presidency for an incoming Republican president...
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/26/trump-presidency-gut-noaa-weathe...
Dharna Noor | 26 Apr 2024
Climate experts fear Donald Trump will follow a blueprint created by his allies to gut the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa), disbanding its work on climate science and tailoring its operations to business interests.
...The plan to “break up Noaa is laid out in the Project 2025 document written by more than 350 rightwingers and helmed by the Heritage Foundation. Called the Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise, it is meant to guide the first 180 days of presidency for an incoming Republican president...
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/26/trump-presidency-gut-noaa-weathe...
31margd
Even with windows open, DIY Corsi-Rosenthal air filter box helps clear particulate matter (PM), e.g., smoke generated by wildfires. (We used one on hot, smoky days last summer -- in place w/o AC.)
New research: DIY air filters work better than commercial HEPA filters for fraction of cost
Nicole Pomerantz | June 07, 2024
https://news.asu.edu/20240607-health-and-medicine-new-research-diy-air-filters-w...
---------------------------------------------
Megan L. Jehn et al. 2024. Effectiveness of do-it-yourself air cleaners in reducing exposure to respiratory aerosols in US classrooms: A longitudinal study of public schools. Building and Environment, Volume 258, 15 June 2024, 111603. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2024.111603 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0360132324004451
---------------------------------------------
How Can You Make a Corsi-Rosenthal Box?
4 MERV 13 filters
Duct tape
A 20-inch box fan
A cardboard box (you can use the one the fan came in)
Scissors
https://www.webmd.com/allergies/corsi-rosenthal-box
New research: DIY air filters work better than commercial HEPA filters for fraction of cost
Nicole Pomerantz | June 07, 2024
https://news.asu.edu/20240607-health-and-medicine-new-research-diy-air-filters-w...
---------------------------------------------
Megan L. Jehn et al. 2024. Effectiveness of do-it-yourself air cleaners in reducing exposure to respiratory aerosols in US classrooms: A longitudinal study of public schools. Building and Environment, Volume 258, 15 June 2024, 111603. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2024.111603 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0360132324004451
---------------------------------------------
How Can You Make a Corsi-Rosenthal Box?
4 MERV 13 filters
Duct tape
A 20-inch box fan
A cardboard box (you can use the one the fan came in)
Scissors
https://www.webmd.com/allergies/corsi-rosenthal-box
32margd
Planet-first diet cuts risk of early death by nearly a third, study says
Sandee LaMotte | June 10, 2024
...higher consumption of a rainbow of fruits and vegetables, whole grains, legumes and other plant-based proteins while reducing meat and dairy to small portions.
...Eating a planet-healthy diet ... cut land use by 51%, greenhouse gas emissions by 29% and fertilizer use by 21%...
...The top 10% of people who followed the Eat-Lancet planetary diet were 30% less likely to die prematurely from any cause than those in the bottom 10%...
In addition, those who most closely followed the planetary diet had a 28% lower risk of neurodegenerative mortality, a 14% lower risk of dying from cardiovascular disease, a 10% lower risk of dying from cancer and a 47% lower risk of dying from a respiratory disease, which applied to nonsmokers as well...
https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/10/health/planetary-diet-longevity-study-wellness/in...
---------------------------------------------
Linh P Bui ET AL. 2024. Planetary Health Diet Index and risk of total and cause-specific mortality in three prospective cohorts. Am J Clinical Nutrition
Published:June 10, 2024 DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ajcnut.2024.03.019
https://ajcn.nutrition.org/article/S0002-9165(24)00389-7/abstract
Sandee LaMotte | June 10, 2024
...higher consumption of a rainbow of fruits and vegetables, whole grains, legumes and other plant-based proteins while reducing meat and dairy to small portions.
...Eating a planet-healthy diet ... cut land use by 51%, greenhouse gas emissions by 29% and fertilizer use by 21%...
...The top 10% of people who followed the Eat-Lancet planetary diet were 30% less likely to die prematurely from any cause than those in the bottom 10%...
In addition, those who most closely followed the planetary diet had a 28% lower risk of neurodegenerative mortality, a 14% lower risk of dying from cardiovascular disease, a 10% lower risk of dying from cancer and a 47% lower risk of dying from a respiratory disease, which applied to nonsmokers as well...
https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/10/health/planetary-diet-longevity-study-wellness/in...
---------------------------------------------
Linh P Bui ET AL. 2024. Planetary Health Diet Index and risk of total and cause-specific mortality in three prospective cohorts. Am J Clinical Nutrition
Published:June 10, 2024 DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ajcnut.2024.03.019
https://ajcn.nutrition.org/article/S0002-9165(24)00389-7/abstract
33margd
Seas in the Southern United States have risen dramatically since 2010 {6"-7" in Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean}. The extra water has upended life — flooding homes, choking septic systems and deluging roads.
Where seas are rising at alarming speed
Mooney et al. 2024
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/interactive/2024/southern-us-...
Where seas are rising at alarming speed
Mooney et al. 2024
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/interactive/2024/southern-us-...
34margd
Some gray whales on the Oregon coast are shrinking.
Researchers said the shift in size is dramatic, comparable to the average American woman going from 5 feet, 4 inches to 4 feet, 8 inches in just 20 years.
It’s Not Just Fish — Some Gray Whales Are Shrinking Too
E360 Digest | June 17, 2024
...200 whales that linger in the warm, shallow waters along the coast of Oregon and tend to be in worse shape than other gray whales ... while a whale born in the year 2000 could be expected to grow to around 40 feet in length, a whale born in 2020 would end up closer to 35 feet in length.
...echoes other research finding that many fish, birds, and amphibians are shrinking, and that climate change may be playing a role. One explanation is that smaller creatures cope better with high heat. Another is that in a hotter, more turbulent world, some animals are not getting enough to eat, and so are not growing to full size.
...a drop in size poses a threat to the long-term survival of the Oregon gray whales. Shorter whales tend to have smaller reserves of blubber, meaning they have less energy stored away for lean times. Experts worry that these shorter whales will have a harder time recovering from boat collisions and other injuries, and may struggle to reproduce.
https://e360.yale.edu/digest/pacific-gray-whales-shrinking
---------------------------------------------
Enrico Pirotta and K. C. Bierlich et al. 2024. Modeling individual growth reveals decreasing gray whale body length and correlations with ocean climate indices at multiple scales. Global Change Biology. First published: 07 June 2024. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.17366 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.17366
Researchers said the shift in size is dramatic, comparable to the average American woman going from 5 feet, 4 inches to 4 feet, 8 inches in just 20 years.
It’s Not Just Fish — Some Gray Whales Are Shrinking Too
E360 Digest | June 17, 2024
...200 whales that linger in the warm, shallow waters along the coast of Oregon and tend to be in worse shape than other gray whales ... while a whale born in the year 2000 could be expected to grow to around 40 feet in length, a whale born in 2020 would end up closer to 35 feet in length.
...echoes other research finding that many fish, birds, and amphibians are shrinking, and that climate change may be playing a role. One explanation is that smaller creatures cope better with high heat. Another is that in a hotter, more turbulent world, some animals are not getting enough to eat, and so are not growing to full size.
...a drop in size poses a threat to the long-term survival of the Oregon gray whales. Shorter whales tend to have smaller reserves of blubber, meaning they have less energy stored away for lean times. Experts worry that these shorter whales will have a harder time recovering from boat collisions and other injuries, and may struggle to reproduce.
https://e360.yale.edu/digest/pacific-gray-whales-shrinking
---------------------------------------------
Enrico Pirotta and K. C. Bierlich et al. 2024. Modeling individual growth reveals decreasing gray whale body length and correlations with ocean climate indices at multiple scales. Global Change Biology. First published: 07 June 2024. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.17366 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.17366
35margd
Herd of 170 bison could help store CO2 equivalent of 43,000 cars, researchers say
Graeme Green | 15 May 2024
...A herd of 170 bison reintroduced to Romania’s Țarcu mountains could help store CO2 emissions equivalent to removing 43,000 US cars from the road for a year, research has found, demonstrating how the animals can help mitigate some effects of the climate crisis.
...The European bison herd grazing in an area of nearly 50 sq km of grasslands within the wider Țarcu mountains was found to potentially capture an additional 54,000 tonnes of carbon a year. That is nearly 9.8 times more carbon than without the bison ... corresponds to the yearly CO2 released by a median of 43,000 average US petrol cars...
Prof Oswald Schmitz of the Yale School of the Environment ... said: “Bison influence grassland and forest ecosystems by grazing grasslands evenly, recycling nutrients to fertilise the soil and all of its life, dispersing seeds to enrich the ecosystem, and compacting the soil to prevent stored carbon from being released...
... Schmitz said the team had looked at nine species in detail, including tropical forest elephants, musk oxen and sea otters, and had begun to investigate others. He added: “Many of them show similar promise to these bison, often doubling an ecosystem’s capacity to draw down and store carbon, and sometimes much more. This really is a policy option with massive potential.”
https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/15/bison-romania-tarcu-...
Graeme Green | 15 May 2024
...A herd of 170 bison reintroduced to Romania’s Țarcu mountains could help store CO2 emissions equivalent to removing 43,000 US cars from the road for a year, research has found, demonstrating how the animals can help mitigate some effects of the climate crisis.
...The European bison herd grazing in an area of nearly 50 sq km of grasslands within the wider Țarcu mountains was found to potentially capture an additional 54,000 tonnes of carbon a year. That is nearly 9.8 times more carbon than without the bison ... corresponds to the yearly CO2 released by a median of 43,000 average US petrol cars...
Prof Oswald Schmitz of the Yale School of the Environment ... said: “Bison influence grassland and forest ecosystems by grazing grasslands evenly, recycling nutrients to fertilise the soil and all of its life, dispersing seeds to enrich the ecosystem, and compacting the soil to prevent stored carbon from being released...
... Schmitz said the team had looked at nine species in detail, including tropical forest elephants, musk oxen and sea otters, and had begun to investigate others. He added: “Many of them show similar promise to these bison, often doubling an ecosystem’s capacity to draw down and store carbon, and sometimes much more. This really is a policy option with massive potential.”
https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/15/bison-romania-tarcu-...
362wonderY
>35 margd: Farmers are doing it. It’s called multi-paddock grazing.
https://foundationfar.org/impact/breakthroughs/adaptive-multi-paddock-grazing-be...
https://foundationfar.org/impact/breakthroughs/adaptive-multi-paddock-grazing-be...
37margd
What is cloud seeding and did it cause Dubai flooding?
Mark Poynting & Marco Silva | 17 April 2024
...Dubai is situated on the coast of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and is usually very dry. But while it receives less than 100mm (3.9in) a year of rainfall on average, it does experience occasional extreme downpours.
In the city of Al-Ain - just over 100km (62 miles) from Dubai - about 256mm (10in) of rain was recorded in just 24 hours. {mid-April 2024}
A "cut off" low pressure weather system, which drew in warm, moist air and blocked other weather systems from coming through was the main cause.
"This part of the world is characterised by long periods without rain and then irregular, heavy rainfall, but even so, this was a very rare rainfall event," explains Prof Maarten Ambaum, a meteorologist at the University of Reading who has studied rainfall patterns in the Gulf region.
...Earlier reports by Bloomberg suggested cloud seeding planes were deployed on Sunday and Monday, but not on Tuesday, when the flooding occurred.
..."Even if cloud seeding did encourage clouds around Dubai to drop water, the atmosphere would have likely been carrying more water to form clouds in the first place, because of climate change", says {Dr Friederike Otto, senior lecturer in climate science at Imperial College London.}.
Cloud seeding is generally deployed when conditions of wind, moisture and dust are insufficient to lead to rain. In the last week, forecasters had warned of a high flooding risk across the Gulf...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-68839043.amp
---------------------------------------
K. Koteswara Rao et al. 2024. Future changes in the precipitation regime over the Arabian Peninsula with special emphasis on UAE: insights from NEX-GDDP CMIP6 model simulations. Scientific Reports volume 14, Article number: 151 (2 Jan 2024) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-49910-8
Abstract
...This study represents the first attempt ... to project the regional patterns of precipitation regime across the Arabian Peninsula. Results suggest that the annual precipitation is expected to increase over most of the UAE by up to 30%, particularly intense from the mid-future onwards in all scenarios. Specifically, the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation extremes such as intensity, 1-day highest precipitation, and precipitation exceeding 10 mm days are increasing; in contrast, the consecutive dry days may decrease towards the end of the century. The results show that the changes in extreme precipitation under a warming scenario relative to the historical period indicate progressive wetting across UAE, accompanied by increased heavy precipitation events and reduced dry spell events, particularly under the high emission scenarios...
Mark Poynting & Marco Silva | 17 April 2024
...Dubai is situated on the coast of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and is usually very dry. But while it receives less than 100mm (3.9in) a year of rainfall on average, it does experience occasional extreme downpours.
In the city of Al-Ain - just over 100km (62 miles) from Dubai - about 256mm (10in) of rain was recorded in just 24 hours. {mid-April 2024}
A "cut off" low pressure weather system, which drew in warm, moist air and blocked other weather systems from coming through was the main cause.
"This part of the world is characterised by long periods without rain and then irregular, heavy rainfall, but even so, this was a very rare rainfall event," explains Prof Maarten Ambaum, a meteorologist at the University of Reading who has studied rainfall patterns in the Gulf region.
...Earlier reports by Bloomberg suggested cloud seeding planes were deployed on Sunday and Monday, but not on Tuesday, when the flooding occurred.
..."Even if cloud seeding did encourage clouds around Dubai to drop water, the atmosphere would have likely been carrying more water to form clouds in the first place, because of climate change", says {Dr Friederike Otto, senior lecturer in climate science at Imperial College London.}.
Cloud seeding is generally deployed when conditions of wind, moisture and dust are insufficient to lead to rain. In the last week, forecasters had warned of a high flooding risk across the Gulf...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-68839043.amp
---------------------------------------
K. Koteswara Rao et al. 2024. Future changes in the precipitation regime over the Arabian Peninsula with special emphasis on UAE: insights from NEX-GDDP CMIP6 model simulations. Scientific Reports volume 14, Article number: 151 (2 Jan 2024) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-49910-8
Abstract
...This study represents the first attempt ... to project the regional patterns of precipitation regime across the Arabian Peninsula. Results suggest that the annual precipitation is expected to increase over most of the UAE by up to 30%, particularly intense from the mid-future onwards in all scenarios. Specifically, the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation extremes such as intensity, 1-day highest precipitation, and precipitation exceeding 10 mm days are increasing; in contrast, the consecutive dry days may decrease towards the end of the century. The results show that the changes in extreme precipitation under a warming scenario relative to the historical period indicate progressive wetting across UAE, accompanied by increased heavy precipitation events and reduced dry spell events, particularly under the high emission scenarios...
38margd
Miami entering a state of unreality: Adaptation to climate change can’t fix the city’s water problems
Mario Alejandro Ariza/Floodlight | Jun 19, 2024
...This glittering city was built on a drained swamp and sits atop porous limestone; as the sea keeps rising, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts that south Florida could see almost 11 extra inches of ocean by 2040.
Sunny-day flooding, when high tides gurgle up and soak low-lying ground, have increased 400% since 1998, with a significant increase after 2006; a major hurricane strike with a significant storm surge could displace up to 1 million people. And with every passing year, the region’s infrastructure seems more ill-equipped to deal with these dangers, despite billions of dollars spent on adaptation.
... as atmospheric concentrations of carbon reach levels not seen in 3 million years, politicians promise resilience while ignoring emissions; developers race to build a bounty of luxury condos, never mind the swiftly rising sea. Florida is entering a subtropical state of unreality in which these decisions don’t add up.
A massive network of canals keeps this region from reverting to a swamp, and sea-level rise is making operating them more challenging. ... The majority of these canals drain to the sea during low tides using gravity...
...Gov. Ron DeSantis and his administration have attempted to address the havoc caused by the changing climate with his $1.8 billion Resilient Florida Program, an initiative to help communities adapt to sea-level rise and more intense flooding.
But the governor has also signed a bill into law that would make the term “climate change” largely verboten in state statutes. That same bill effectively boosted the use of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, in Florida by reducing regulations on gas pipelines and increasing protections on gas stoves.
In a post on X the day he signed the bill, DeSantis called this “restoring sanity in our approach to energy and rejecting the agenda of the radical green zealots.”
...In Miami, as the water levels rise, researchers predict that low-lying neighborhoods across the region will lose population. Eventually, Florida’s policies of agnostic adaptation will have to deal with this looming reality, where adaptation is clearly impossible, and retreat may be the only option left....
https://floodlightnews.org/miami-entering-a-state-of-unreality-adaptation-to-cli...
Mario Alejandro Ariza/Floodlight | Jun 19, 2024
...This glittering city was built on a drained swamp and sits atop porous limestone; as the sea keeps rising, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts that south Florida could see almost 11 extra inches of ocean by 2040.
Sunny-day flooding, when high tides gurgle up and soak low-lying ground, have increased 400% since 1998, with a significant increase after 2006; a major hurricane strike with a significant storm surge could displace up to 1 million people. And with every passing year, the region’s infrastructure seems more ill-equipped to deal with these dangers, despite billions of dollars spent on adaptation.
... as atmospheric concentrations of carbon reach levels not seen in 3 million years, politicians promise resilience while ignoring emissions; developers race to build a bounty of luxury condos, never mind the swiftly rising sea. Florida is entering a subtropical state of unreality in which these decisions don’t add up.
A massive network of canals keeps this region from reverting to a swamp, and sea-level rise is making operating them more challenging. ... The majority of these canals drain to the sea during low tides using gravity...
...Gov. Ron DeSantis and his administration have attempted to address the havoc caused by the changing climate with his $1.8 billion Resilient Florida Program, an initiative to help communities adapt to sea-level rise and more intense flooding.
But the governor has also signed a bill into law that would make the term “climate change” largely verboten in state statutes. That same bill effectively boosted the use of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, in Florida by reducing regulations on gas pipelines and increasing protections on gas stoves.
In a post on X the day he signed the bill, DeSantis called this “restoring sanity in our approach to energy and rejecting the agenda of the radical green zealots.”
...In Miami, as the water levels rise, researchers predict that low-lying neighborhoods across the region will lose population. Eventually, Florida’s policies of agnostic adaptation will have to deal with this looming reality, where adaptation is clearly impossible, and retreat may be the only option left....
https://floodlightnews.org/miami-entering-a-state-of-unreality-adaptation-to-cli...
39margd
Hundreds of Hajj pilgrims die as Mecca temperatures hit 120 Fahrenheit
Lauren Kent, Caroline Faraj and Hande Atay Alam | June 20, 2024
More than 300 people have died and thousands have been treated for heatstroke while performing the annual Muslim Hajj pilgrimage to Mecca amid extreme temperatures of up to 49 degrees Celsius (120 degrees Fahrenheit).
At least 165 Indonesians, 68 Jordanians, 35 Pakistanis, 35 Tunisians and 11 Iranians have died, according to authorities in each country. A further 22 Jordanians are hospitalized and 16 are still missing, the Jordanian Foreign Ministry said. Dozens of Iranians have also been hospitalized due to heatstroke and other conditions, the Iranian Red Crescent said Wednesday, according to Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency.
The death toll is likely to rise, as Saudi Arabia and Egypt have yet to release official figures. Additionally, the governments are only aware of pilgrims who have registered and traveled to Mecca as part of their country’s quota – more deaths are feared among unregistered pilgrims.
... This year's Hajj fell in one of the hottest months in Mecca. Mecca's average maximum temperature in June is nearly 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit). But this year Hajj pilgrims experienced unusually extreme heat, with temperatures soaring to 52 degrees Celsius (125.6 degrees Fahrenheit) on Monday...
https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/19/middleeast/hajj-deaths-mecca-extreme-heat-intl-la...
Lauren Kent, Caroline Faraj and Hande Atay Alam | June 20, 2024
More than 300 people have died and thousands have been treated for heatstroke while performing the annual Muslim Hajj pilgrimage to Mecca amid extreme temperatures of up to 49 degrees Celsius (120 degrees Fahrenheit).
At least 165 Indonesians, 68 Jordanians, 35 Pakistanis, 35 Tunisians and 11 Iranians have died, according to authorities in each country. A further 22 Jordanians are hospitalized and 16 are still missing, the Jordanian Foreign Ministry said. Dozens of Iranians have also been hospitalized due to heatstroke and other conditions, the Iranian Red Crescent said Wednesday, according to Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency.
The death toll is likely to rise, as Saudi Arabia and Egypt have yet to release official figures. Additionally, the governments are only aware of pilgrims who have registered and traveled to Mecca as part of their country’s quota – more deaths are feared among unregistered pilgrims.
... This year's Hajj fell in one of the hottest months in Mecca. Mecca's average maximum temperature in June is nearly 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit). But this year Hajj pilgrims experienced unusually extreme heat, with temperatures soaring to 52 degrees Celsius (125.6 degrees Fahrenheit) on Monday...
https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/19/middleeast/hajj-deaths-mecca-extreme-heat-intl-la...
40margd
Water shortages in Iran cause ground to give away
Shabnam von Hein | June 19, 2024
A drought in Iran is causing the ground to subside, threatening Tehran and hundreds of other towns.
...The number of climate refugees within Iran has risen by 800,000 in the last two years alone, according to Iranian Environment Agency statistics published in May. These are people who have been forced to move to the northern provinces and cities around Tehran due to climate change, and in particular, because of water shortages in central and southern Iran.
At least 30 million people — over a third of Iran's total population of 83 million people — have moved within the country over the last 30 years in the hopes of a better life. Three quarters of Iran's total landmass is considered completely arid...
https://www.dw.com/en/water-shortages-in-iran-cause-ground-to-give-away/a-694059...
Shabnam von Hein | June 19, 2024
A drought in Iran is causing the ground to subside, threatening Tehran and hundreds of other towns.
...The number of climate refugees within Iran has risen by 800,000 in the last two years alone, according to Iranian Environment Agency statistics published in May. These are people who have been forced to move to the northern provinces and cities around Tehran due to climate change, and in particular, because of water shortages in central and southern Iran.
At least 30 million people — over a third of Iran's total population of 83 million people — have moved within the country over the last 30 years in the hopes of a better life. Three quarters of Iran's total landmass is considered completely arid...
https://www.dw.com/en/water-shortages-in-iran-cause-ground-to-give-away/a-694059...
41margd
As in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria destroyed grid infrastructure, war-stressed Ukraine reaches for decentralized renewable energy:
Ukraine plans solar expansion to stabilize energy security
DW | 20 June 2024
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy plans to expand the construction of solar power systems in the country. The goal is to stabilize the power grid, which has been severely affected by Russian attacks.
"The government has been tasked with immediately presenting a program to encourage the installation of solar generation and energy storage systems in Ukraine," Zelenskyy said in his nightly video address on Thursday.
Under the plan, citizens who install solar panels will be eligible for an interest-free loan...
...The Ukrainian president pledged to build more decentralized energy facilities to ensure that administrative and critical infrastructure buildings have an alternative energy source during power outages.
According to official figures, about half of Ukraine's energy production capacity has been lost due to systematic Russian drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities...
https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-updates-zelenskyy-calls-for-solar-energy-expansion...
Ukraine plans solar expansion to stabilize energy security
DW | 20 June 2024
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy plans to expand the construction of solar power systems in the country. The goal is to stabilize the power grid, which has been severely affected by Russian attacks.
"The government has been tasked with immediately presenting a program to encourage the installation of solar generation and energy storage systems in Ukraine," Zelenskyy said in his nightly video address on Thursday.
Under the plan, citizens who install solar panels will be eligible for an interest-free loan...
...The Ukrainian president pledged to build more decentralized energy facilities to ensure that administrative and critical infrastructure buildings have an alternative energy source during power outages.
According to official figures, about half of Ukraine's energy production capacity has been lost due to systematic Russian drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities...
https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-updates-zelenskyy-calls-for-solar-energy-expansion...
42margd
Inside India's first heat stroke emergency room
Soutik Biswas | 20 June 2024
...
...A heat stroke, the most severe heat illness, is identified by three key signs: exposure to high heat and humidity, a core body temperature of 40.5C (105F) or higher, and mental changes like mild confusion or impaired consciousness. Heat stroke is also a silent killer, and victims can begin to fall ill hours after exposure to sun. India's National Centre for Disease Control calls heat strokes a "life-threatening" condition with a mortality rate of 40-64%.
...Since {Ram Manohar Lohia Hospital (RMLH)} in Delhi opened a heat stroke clinic in late May, seven people have died of heat stroke and more than 40 have been treated for heat-related ailments.
The majority were men working outdoors and in small, unregulated factories with poor conditions, enduring extreme heat exposure. To be sure, the heatwave is not restricted to Delhi: dozens have died from heat-related illnesses since March, with more than 50 deaths in just three days in early June in the states of Uttar Pradesh and Odisha.
...It is not difficult to fall ill in Delhi. Life is tough. A third of residents live in substandard and congested housing. The city’s 6,400-odd slums, home to more than a million households, lack adequate cooling and face seasonal livelihood crises. Men fall ill working outdoors; women fall sick after spending extended periods in kitchen settings with traditional stoves.
Green spaces are scarce. In the peak of summer, the city turns into a scorching furnace, trapped between the blazing heat from above and the searing ground below.
...Those who work outdoors suffer the most. A large majority of respondents in a new Greenpeace survey on how heat impacts street vendors in Delhi reported health issues due to hot weather. Irritability was the most common (73.44%), followed by headaches, dehydration, sunburn, fatigue and muscle cramps. Most faced challenges accessing medical care due to lack of money.
...A new nationwide survey by Centre for Rapid Insights (CRI) offers some startling insights into how heatwaves hurt people and cripple productivity.
It showed that 45% of the households contacted reported at least one member getting sick from the heat last month.
Among those affected, over 67% had household members sick for more than five days.
This impact was particularly severe among the poorest. Specifically 32.5% of households with motorcycles and 28.2% with no vehicles had members ill for over five days; the figure was lower at 21.8% for households with cars.
...Some three-fourths of India’s workers work in heat-exposed jobs like construction and mining. This becomes worse during heatwaves as there are fewer safe and productive work hours during the day. A Lancet study reported a loss of 167.2 billion potential labour hours in India due to excessive heat in 2021.
...Heatwaves killed more than 25,000 people between 1992 and 2019, according to official figures. As India doesn’t compile mortality data properly, experts reckon the actual toll would be much higher.
India’s heat action plans are also not working well, as a study found. Tellingly, 68% of the vendors in Delhi have heard about heatwaves, according to the Greenpeace study. Yet the heat emergency doesn’t figure in the political discourse.
...Things look dire in Delhi. In 2022, India saw 203 heatwave days, the highest on record, with Delhi experiencing around 17 of them. March marked India's hottest month recorded by the the weather department, while Delhi had its second-hottest April in 72 years...
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn00nkzdvkjo
Soutik Biswas | 20 June 2024
...
...A heat stroke, the most severe heat illness, is identified by three key signs: exposure to high heat and humidity, a core body temperature of 40.5C (105F) or higher, and mental changes like mild confusion or impaired consciousness. Heat stroke is also a silent killer, and victims can begin to fall ill hours after exposure to sun. India's National Centre for Disease Control calls heat strokes a "life-threatening" condition with a mortality rate of 40-64%.
...Since {Ram Manohar Lohia Hospital (RMLH)} in Delhi opened a heat stroke clinic in late May, seven people have died of heat stroke and more than 40 have been treated for heat-related ailments.
The majority were men working outdoors and in small, unregulated factories with poor conditions, enduring extreme heat exposure. To be sure, the heatwave is not restricted to Delhi: dozens have died from heat-related illnesses since March, with more than 50 deaths in just three days in early June in the states of Uttar Pradesh and Odisha.
...It is not difficult to fall ill in Delhi. Life is tough. A third of residents live in substandard and congested housing. The city’s 6,400-odd slums, home to more than a million households, lack adequate cooling and face seasonal livelihood crises. Men fall ill working outdoors; women fall sick after spending extended periods in kitchen settings with traditional stoves.
Green spaces are scarce. In the peak of summer, the city turns into a scorching furnace, trapped between the blazing heat from above and the searing ground below.
...Those who work outdoors suffer the most. A large majority of respondents in a new Greenpeace survey on how heat impacts street vendors in Delhi reported health issues due to hot weather. Irritability was the most common (73.44%), followed by headaches, dehydration, sunburn, fatigue and muscle cramps. Most faced challenges accessing medical care due to lack of money.
...A new nationwide survey by Centre for Rapid Insights (CRI) offers some startling insights into how heatwaves hurt people and cripple productivity.
It showed that 45% of the households contacted reported at least one member getting sick from the heat last month.
Among those affected, over 67% had household members sick for more than five days.
This impact was particularly severe among the poorest. Specifically 32.5% of households with motorcycles and 28.2% with no vehicles had members ill for over five days; the figure was lower at 21.8% for households with cars.
...Some three-fourths of India’s workers work in heat-exposed jobs like construction and mining. This becomes worse during heatwaves as there are fewer safe and productive work hours during the day. A Lancet study reported a loss of 167.2 billion potential labour hours in India due to excessive heat in 2021.
...Heatwaves killed more than 25,000 people between 1992 and 2019, according to official figures. As India doesn’t compile mortality data properly, experts reckon the actual toll would be much higher.
India’s heat action plans are also not working well, as a study found. Tellingly, 68% of the vendors in Delhi have heard about heatwaves, according to the Greenpeace study. Yet the heat emergency doesn’t figure in the political discourse.
...Things look dire in Delhi. In 2022, India saw 203 heatwave days, the highest on record, with Delhi experiencing around 17 of them. March marked India's hottest month recorded by the the weather department, while Delhi had its second-hottest April in 72 years...
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn00nkzdvkjo
43margd
Gulf Stream's fate to be decided by climate 'tug-of-war'
Ben Turner | 19 June 2024
New research suggests that runoff from the Greenland Ice Sheet could prevent icebergs from disrupting key ocean currents. But some scientists have cautioned that other factors may be at play.
...The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which includes the Gulf Stream, governs the climate by bringing nutrients, oxygen and heat in tropical waters north and cold water south. The current can exist in two stable states: a stronger, faster one that we rely on today, and another that is much slower and weaker.
Climate change is slowing this flow by sending fresh water from Greenland's melting ice sheet to make the water less dense and less salty. This has led to a growing number of studies suggesting that the current is slowing and could even be veering toward collapse.
The discharge of icebergs from the Laurentide Ice Sheet — which covered most of North America during the last Ice Age — are known as Heinrich events. The present-day cause of this melt is climate change, but during the last glacial maximum it likely resulted from a mixture of ocean heating and the weight of ice accumulating on the sheet.
This led icebergs to slide into the sea and fresh water to cascade from the shelf, both of which caused the AMOC to weaken dramatically over a few hundred years.
... {lead author Yuxin Zhou, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of California, Santa Barbara} said that the changes we're seeing today are governed by the relationship between iceberg calving and freshwater melt straight from the shelf. Icebergs are the most significant factor in this slowdown, while runoff plays a secondary role. But while melt does cause some slowdown, it also slows iceberg production, creating the tug-of-war whose interplay will decide the AMOC's future ... could be a reason for cautious optimism...
David Thornalley, a professor of ocean and climate science at University College London, told Live Science ... "There is loads we still need to work out to be confident about future AMOC behavior: how good our models are; how easily the modern AMOC can be destabilized; {and} there might be unexpected surprises, good or bad," Thornalley said. "But there are enough reasons to be concerned about the AMOC, and we should apply the precautionary principle — we really don't want to see firsthand the climate impacts of an AMOC collapse. It is just one of many climate impacts we should do all we can to avoid."
https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/climate-change/gulf-streams-fate-to-be-...
----------------------------------------------
Yuxin Zhou and Jerry F. McManus 2024. Heinrich event ice discharge and the fate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Science
30 May 2024, Vol 384, Issue 6699, pp. 983-986. DOI: 10.1126/science.adh8369 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adh8369
Editor’s summary
Will ice mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet caused by climate warming disrupt large-scale ocean circulation? Zhou et al. reconstructed iceberg production rates during the massive calving episodes of the last glacial period, called Heinrich events, when icebergs did affect ocean circulation. The authors found that present-day Greenland Ice Sheet calving rates are as high as during some of those events. However, because melting is causing the Greenland Ice Sheet to recede from the coasts of Greenland, where icebergs originate, its iceberg discharge should not persist long enough to cause major disruption of the Atlantic overturning circulation by itself. —Jesse Smith
Ben Turner | 19 June 2024
New research suggests that runoff from the Greenland Ice Sheet could prevent icebergs from disrupting key ocean currents. But some scientists have cautioned that other factors may be at play.
...The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which includes the Gulf Stream, governs the climate by bringing nutrients, oxygen and heat in tropical waters north and cold water south. The current can exist in two stable states: a stronger, faster one that we rely on today, and another that is much slower and weaker.
Climate change is slowing this flow by sending fresh water from Greenland's melting ice sheet to make the water less dense and less salty. This has led to a growing number of studies suggesting that the current is slowing and could even be veering toward collapse.
The discharge of icebergs from the Laurentide Ice Sheet — which covered most of North America during the last Ice Age — are known as Heinrich events. The present-day cause of this melt is climate change, but during the last glacial maximum it likely resulted from a mixture of ocean heating and the weight of ice accumulating on the sheet.
This led icebergs to slide into the sea and fresh water to cascade from the shelf, both of which caused the AMOC to weaken dramatically over a few hundred years.
... {lead author Yuxin Zhou, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of California, Santa Barbara} said that the changes we're seeing today are governed by the relationship between iceberg calving and freshwater melt straight from the shelf. Icebergs are the most significant factor in this slowdown, while runoff plays a secondary role. But while melt does cause some slowdown, it also slows iceberg production, creating the tug-of-war whose interplay will decide the AMOC's future ... could be a reason for cautious optimism...
David Thornalley, a professor of ocean and climate science at University College London, told Live Science ... "There is loads we still need to work out to be confident about future AMOC behavior: how good our models are; how easily the modern AMOC can be destabilized; {and} there might be unexpected surprises, good or bad," Thornalley said. "But there are enough reasons to be concerned about the AMOC, and we should apply the precautionary principle — we really don't want to see firsthand the climate impacts of an AMOC collapse. It is just one of many climate impacts we should do all we can to avoid."
https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/climate-change/gulf-streams-fate-to-be-...
----------------------------------------------
Yuxin Zhou and Jerry F. McManus 2024. Heinrich event ice discharge and the fate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Science
30 May 2024, Vol 384, Issue 6699, pp. 983-986. DOI: 10.1126/science.adh8369 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adh8369
Editor’s summary
Will ice mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet caused by climate warming disrupt large-scale ocean circulation? Zhou et al. reconstructed iceberg production rates during the massive calving episodes of the last glacial period, called Heinrich events, when icebergs did affect ocean circulation. The authors found that present-day Greenland Ice Sheet calving rates are as high as during some of those events. However, because melting is causing the Greenland Ice Sheet to recede from the coasts of Greenland, where icebergs originate, its iceberg discharge should not persist long enough to cause major disruption of the Atlantic overturning circulation by itself. —Jesse Smith
44margd
INTERACTIVE GLOBAL MAP : https://fitzlab.shinyapps.io/cityapp/
Climate Change: Future Urban Climates
What will cities feel like in 60 years?
U of MD Center for Environmental Science
https://www.umces.edu/futureurbanclimates
Climate Change: Future Urban Climates
What will cities feel like in 60 years?
U of MD Center for Environmental Science
https://www.umces.edu/futureurbanclimates
45margd
Well Beyond the U.S., Heat and Climate Extremes Are Hitting Billions
Somini Sengupta | June 21, 2024
...Between May 2023 and May 2024, an estimated 6.3 billion people, or roughly 4 out of 5 people in the world, lived through at least a month of what in their areas were considered abnormally high temperatures, according to a recent analysis by Climate Central, a scientific nonprofit.
The damage to human health, agriculture and the global economy is just beginning to be understood.
Extreme heat killed an estimated 489,000 people annually between 2000 and 2019, according to the World Meteorological Organization, making heat the deadliest of all extreme weather events. Swiss RE, the insurance-industry giant, said in a report this week that the accumulating hazards of climate change could further drive the growing market for insurance against strikes and riots. “Climate change may also drive food and water shortages and in turn civil unrest, and mass migration,” the report said...
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/21/climate/heat-deaths-floods-drought.html
via https://dnyuz.com/2024/06/21/well-beyond-the-u-s-heat-and-climate-extremes-are-h...
-----------------------------------------
Report (14 p)
Climate Change and the Escalation of Global Extreme Heat: Assessing
and Addressing the Risks
Climate Central | May 28, 2024
A look at global extreme heat over the past 12 months, how climate change
has influenced this heat, and strategies to prevent increasingly frequent and
intense heat from claiming lives worldwide.
Key findings from the report include:
Over the 12-month period, 6.3 billion people (about 78% of the global population) experienced at least 31 days of extreme heat (hotter than 90% of temperatures observed in their local area over the 1991-2020 period) that was made at least two times more likely due to human-caused climate change.
Over the last 12 months, human-caused climate change added an average of 26 days of extreme heat (on average, across all places in the world) than there would have been without a warmed planet. This report also demonstrates the crucial role of tracking and reporting on impacts in extreme heat assessment, and offers actionable solutions to heat risk.
Using World Weather Attribution criteria, the study identified 76 extreme heat waves that span 90 different countries. These events put billions of people at risk, including in densely populated areas of South and East Asia, the Sahel, and South America.
https://www.climatecentral.org/report/climate-change-and-the-escalation-of-globa...
Somini Sengupta | June 21, 2024
...Between May 2023 and May 2024, an estimated 6.3 billion people, or roughly 4 out of 5 people in the world, lived through at least a month of what in their areas were considered abnormally high temperatures, according to a recent analysis by Climate Central, a scientific nonprofit.
The damage to human health, agriculture and the global economy is just beginning to be understood.
Extreme heat killed an estimated 489,000 people annually between 2000 and 2019, according to the World Meteorological Organization, making heat the deadliest of all extreme weather events. Swiss RE, the insurance-industry giant, said in a report this week that the accumulating hazards of climate change could further drive the growing market for insurance against strikes and riots. “Climate change may also drive food and water shortages and in turn civil unrest, and mass migration,” the report said...
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/21/climate/heat-deaths-floods-drought.html
via https://dnyuz.com/2024/06/21/well-beyond-the-u-s-heat-and-climate-extremes-are-h...
-----------------------------------------
Report (14 p)
Climate Change and the Escalation of Global Extreme Heat: Assessing
and Addressing the Risks
Climate Central | May 28, 2024
A look at global extreme heat over the past 12 months, how climate change
has influenced this heat, and strategies to prevent increasingly frequent and
intense heat from claiming lives worldwide.
Key findings from the report include:
Over the 12-month period, 6.3 billion people (about 78% of the global population) experienced at least 31 days of extreme heat (hotter than 90% of temperatures observed in their local area over the 1991-2020 period) that was made at least two times more likely due to human-caused climate change.
Over the last 12 months, human-caused climate change added an average of 26 days of extreme heat (on average, across all places in the world) than there would have been without a warmed planet. This report also demonstrates the crucial role of tracking and reporting on impacts in extreme heat assessment, and offers actionable solutions to heat risk.
Using World Weather Attribution criteria, the study identified 76 extreme heat waves that span 90 different countries. These events put billions of people at risk, including in densely populated areas of South and East Asia, the Sahel, and South America.
https://www.climatecentral.org/report/climate-change-and-the-escalation-of-globa...
46kiparsky
>45 margd: “Climate change may also drive food and water shortages and in turn civil unrest, and mass migration,” the report said...
Sadly, these were predictions that I saw when I first learned about what was back then called the "greenhouse effect". That would have been in the late '80s and early '90s.
The only bone I can pick here is the use of the phrase "may drive", when "is driving" would have been much more appropriate.
Sadly, these were predictions that I saw when I first learned about what was back then called the "greenhouse effect". That would have been in the late '80s and early '90s.
The only bone I can pick here is the use of the phrase "may drive", when "is driving" would have been much more appropriate.
47margd
Food's Climate Footprint was once again MIA at global conferences
"the cow in the room'
Ayurella Horn-Muller | 21June 2024
...Government heads at both conferences {G7, annual Bonn Climate Change Conference, which sets the foundation for the United Nations’ yearly climate gathering} barely addressed what may be one of the most pressing questions the world faces: how to respond to the immense role animal agriculture plays in driving climate change. This continues a pattern of evasion around this issue on the international stage, which advocates and scientists find increasingly frustrating, given that shrinking the emissions footprint of global livestock production and consumption is a needed step toward mitigating climate change.
...Although estimates vary, peer-reviewed studies have found that the global food system is responsible for roughly one-third of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions. Animals raised for consumption generate 32 percent of the world’s methane emissions, and agriculture is the largest source of anthropogenic methane pollution. Methane is the second most abundant greenhouse gas after carbon, and it’s 80 to 90 percent more powerful than carbon in its first 20 years in the atmosphere. This is why many scientists believe that aggressively curbing humanity’s methane pollution would be the fastest way to slow planetary warming. And methane isn’t the only environmental problem associated with meat and dairy. Even though animal agriculture provides 17 percent of the world’s calories, it accounts for 80 percent of global agricultural land use and 41 percent of global agricultural water use, which translates into an outsize impact on biodiversity...
https://grist.org/food-and-agriculture/foods-climate-footprint-was-once-again-mi...
"the cow in the room'
Ayurella Horn-Muller | 21June 2024
...Government heads at both conferences {G7, annual Bonn Climate Change Conference, which sets the foundation for the United Nations’ yearly climate gathering} barely addressed what may be one of the most pressing questions the world faces: how to respond to the immense role animal agriculture plays in driving climate change. This continues a pattern of evasion around this issue on the international stage, which advocates and scientists find increasingly frustrating, given that shrinking the emissions footprint of global livestock production and consumption is a needed step toward mitigating climate change.
...Although estimates vary, peer-reviewed studies have found that the global food system is responsible for roughly one-third of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions. Animals raised for consumption generate 32 percent of the world’s methane emissions, and agriculture is the largest source of anthropogenic methane pollution. Methane is the second most abundant greenhouse gas after carbon, and it’s 80 to 90 percent more powerful than carbon in its first 20 years in the atmosphere. This is why many scientists believe that aggressively curbing humanity’s methane pollution would be the fastest way to slow planetary warming. And methane isn’t the only environmental problem associated with meat and dairy. Even though animal agriculture provides 17 percent of the world’s calories, it accounts for 80 percent of global agricultural land use and 41 percent of global agricultural water use, which translates into an outsize impact on biodiversity...
https://grist.org/food-and-agriculture/foods-climate-footprint-was-once-again-mi...
48margd
Climate engineering off US coast could increase heatwaves in Europe, study finds
Jonathan Watts | Fri 21 Jun 2024
Scientists call for regulation to stop regional use of marine cloud brightening having negative impact elsewhere
A geoengineering technique designed to reduce high temperatures in California could inadvertently intensify heatwaves in Europe, according to a study that models the unintended consequences of regional tinkering with a changing climate.
The paper shows that targeted interventions to lower temperature in one area for one season might bring temporary benefits to some populations, but this has to be set against potentially negative side-effects in other parts of the world and shifting degrees of effectiveness over time.
The authors of the study said the findings were “scary” because the world has few or no regulations in place to prevent regional applications of the technique, marine cloud brightening, which involves spraying reflective aerosols (usually in the form of sea salt or sea spray) into stratocumulus clouds over the ocean to reflect more solar radiation back into space.
Experts have said the paucity of controls means there is little to prevent individual countries, cities, companies or even wealthy individuals from trying to modify their local climates, even if it is to the detriment of people living elsewhere, potentially leading to competition and conflict over interventions...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jun/21/climate-engineering-...
-------------------------------------------
Jessica S. Wan et al. 2024. Diminished efficacy of regional marine cloud brightening in a warmer world. Nature Climate Change. Published online 21 June 2024. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02046-7.epdf
Jonathan Watts | Fri 21 Jun 2024
Scientists call for regulation to stop regional use of marine cloud brightening having negative impact elsewhere
A geoengineering technique designed to reduce high temperatures in California could inadvertently intensify heatwaves in Europe, according to a study that models the unintended consequences of regional tinkering with a changing climate.
The paper shows that targeted interventions to lower temperature in one area for one season might bring temporary benefits to some populations, but this has to be set against potentially negative side-effects in other parts of the world and shifting degrees of effectiveness over time.
The authors of the study said the findings were “scary” because the world has few or no regulations in place to prevent regional applications of the technique, marine cloud brightening, which involves spraying reflective aerosols (usually in the form of sea salt or sea spray) into stratocumulus clouds over the ocean to reflect more solar radiation back into space.
Experts have said the paucity of controls means there is little to prevent individual countries, cities, companies or even wealthy individuals from trying to modify their local climates, even if it is to the detriment of people living elsewhere, potentially leading to competition and conflict over interventions...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jun/21/climate-engineering-...
-------------------------------------------
Jessica S. Wan et al. 2024. Diminished efficacy of regional marine cloud brightening in a warmer world. Nature Climate Change. Published online 21 June 2024. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02046-7.epdf
49margd
Could the Global Boom in Greenhouses Help Cool the Planet?
Fred Pearce • June 20, 2024
... From southern Spain to northeast China and the Rift Valley in East Africa to Mexico, millions of acres of former scrub and marginal farmland are being replaced by glistening reflective surfaces.
The intensive agricultural methods employed within greenhouses may often damage local environments by overtaxing water supplies and polluting rivers and soils with nutrients, pesticides, and plastic waste. But the influence of these seas of plastic on local temperatures can be even more dramatic — and often beneficial. They increase the albedo, or reflectivity, of the land surface, typically by around a tenth, and so reduce solar heating of the lower atmosphere...
https://e360.yale.edu/features/greenhouses-cooling
Fred Pearce • June 20, 2024
... From southern Spain to northeast China and the Rift Valley in East Africa to Mexico, millions of acres of former scrub and marginal farmland are being replaced by glistening reflective surfaces.
The intensive agricultural methods employed within greenhouses may often damage local environments by overtaxing water supplies and polluting rivers and soils with nutrients, pesticides, and plastic waste. But the influence of these seas of plastic on local temperatures can be even more dramatic — and often beneficial. They increase the albedo, or reflectivity, of the land surface, typically by around a tenth, and so reduce solar heating of the lower atmosphere...
https://e360.yale.edu/features/greenhouses-cooling
50margd
Everything’s About to Get a Hell of a Lot More Expensive Due to Climate Change
Nitish Pahwa | Jun 22, 2024
Intensifying hurricanes, floods, and heat waves are wreaking havoc across the US—and on everyone’s bank accounts.
... energy demand set to skyrocket as people turn on their air conditioners. ...already strapped Federal Emergency Management Agency faces a budgetary crisis, and
...sales of catastrophe bonds are at an all-time high.
... rents and insurance stay hot—and
... still-elevated interest rates make construction and mortgage costs even more prohibitive.
... insurers hiking premiums for cars in especially disaster-vulnerable regions
.... home insurance: Providers are either retreating from or dramatically heightening their prices
... insurance crises there may ultimately wreak havoc on the broader real estate sector
... yields for important commodities ... (fruits, nuts, corn, sugar, veggies, wheat) are withering
... supply chains through which these products usually travel are thrown off course at varying points
...supply-chain middlemen and product sellers to anticipate consequential cost increases down the line
... contributors to May’s inflation: juices and frozen drinks (19.5 percent), along with sugar and related substitutes (6.4 percent). ... Florida
... trajectory and spread of bird flu across American livestock— ... meat and milk prices.
... basic building block of modern life: labor, immigration, travel, and materials for homebuilding, transportation, power generation, and necessary appliances.
... prices of timber, copper, and rubber; even chocolate prices were skyrocketing not long ago,
... outdoor workers ... are experiencing adverse health impacts
... record-breaking influxes of migrants from vulnerable countries
... elaborate {beachside} manors ... rebuild them ... {inurance} costs are handed off to taxpayers.
....can’t keep ignoring the clear links between our current weather hellscape, climate change, and our everyday goods.
.... insurance company assessments
... artificial intelligence ... improve extreme-weather predictions and risk forecasts.
... At the state level, insurers are pushing back against local policies that bafflingly forbid them from pricing climate risks into their models, and
... Florida...more transparency...around regional flooding histories.
... New York .. ban insurers from backstopping fossil-fuel industry
...we’re no longer in a world where climate change affects the economy, or where voters prioritizing economic or inflationary concerns are responding to something distinct from climate change—we’re in a world where climate change is the economy.
https://www.wired.com/story/everythings-about-to-get-a-hell-of-a-lot-more-expens...
Nitish Pahwa | Jun 22, 2024
Intensifying hurricanes, floods, and heat waves are wreaking havoc across the US—and on everyone’s bank accounts.
... energy demand set to skyrocket as people turn on their air conditioners. ...already strapped Federal Emergency Management Agency faces a budgetary crisis, and
...sales of catastrophe bonds are at an all-time high.
... rents and insurance stay hot—and
... still-elevated interest rates make construction and mortgage costs even more prohibitive.
... insurers hiking premiums for cars in especially disaster-vulnerable regions
.... home insurance: Providers are either retreating from or dramatically heightening their prices
... insurance crises there may ultimately wreak havoc on the broader real estate sector
... yields for important commodities ... (fruits, nuts, corn, sugar, veggies, wheat) are withering
... supply chains through which these products usually travel are thrown off course at varying points
...supply-chain middlemen and product sellers to anticipate consequential cost increases down the line
... contributors to May’s inflation: juices and frozen drinks (19.5 percent), along with sugar and related substitutes (6.4 percent). ... Florida
... trajectory and spread of bird flu across American livestock— ... meat and milk prices.
... basic building block of modern life: labor, immigration, travel, and materials for homebuilding, transportation, power generation, and necessary appliances.
... prices of timber, copper, and rubber; even chocolate prices were skyrocketing not long ago,
... outdoor workers ... are experiencing adverse health impacts
... record-breaking influxes of migrants from vulnerable countries
... elaborate {beachside} manors ... rebuild them ... {inurance} costs are handed off to taxpayers.
....can’t keep ignoring the clear links between our current weather hellscape, climate change, and our everyday goods.
.... insurance company assessments
... artificial intelligence ... improve extreme-weather predictions and risk forecasts.
... At the state level, insurers are pushing back against local policies that bafflingly forbid them from pricing climate risks into their models, and
... Florida...more transparency...around regional flooding histories.
... New York .. ban insurers from backstopping fossil-fuel industry
...we’re no longer in a world where climate change affects the economy, or where voters prioritizing economic or inflationary concerns are responding to something distinct from climate change—we’re in a world where climate change is the economy.
https://www.wired.com/story/everythings-about-to-get-a-hell-of-a-lot-more-expens...
51margd
By 2050, we may see:
"substantial declines" in global food production of 6 to 14%
"the number of additional people with severe food insecurity" increases by 556 million to 1.36 billion
Tom Kompas et al. 2024. Global impacts of heat and water stress on food production and severe food insecurity. Scientific Reports volume 14, Article number: 14398 (22 June 2024). https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-65274-z
ABSTRACT
Findings are presented for three representative concentration pathways: RCP4.5-SSP2, RCP8.5-SPP2, and RCP8.5-SSP3 (population growth only for SSPs) and project:
(a) substantial declines, as measured by GCal, in global food production of some 6%, 10%, and 14% to 2050 and
(b) the number of additional people with severe food insecurity by 2050, correspondingly, increases by 556 million, 935 million, and 1.36 billion compared to the 2020 model baseline.
RCP - Representative Concentration Pathway, e.g., temperature
RCP8.5 - radiative forcing is the additional amount of energy in Earth’s climate system, 90th percentile relative to preindustrial levels, consistent with “a relatively conservative business as usual case with low income, high population and high energy demand” (https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2007117117)
SSP - Shared Socioeconomic Pathway, e.g., demographics, changes in population growth and dietary makeup
"substantial declines" in global food production of 6 to 14%
"the number of additional people with severe food insecurity" increases by 556 million to 1.36 billion
Tom Kompas et al. 2024. Global impacts of heat and water stress on food production and severe food insecurity. Scientific Reports volume 14, Article number: 14398 (22 June 2024). https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-65274-z
ABSTRACT
Findings are presented for three representative concentration pathways: RCP4.5-SSP2, RCP8.5-SPP2, and RCP8.5-SSP3 (population growth only for SSPs) and project:
(a) substantial declines, as measured by GCal, in global food production of some 6%, 10%, and 14% to 2050 and
(b) the number of additional people with severe food insecurity by 2050, correspondingly, increases by 556 million, 935 million, and 1.36 billion compared to the 2020 model baseline.
RCP - Representative Concentration Pathway, e.g., temperature
RCP8.5 - radiative forcing is the additional amount of energy in Earth’s climate system, 90th percentile relative to preindustrial levels, consistent with “a relatively conservative business as usual case with low income, high population and high energy demand” (https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2007117117)
SSP - Shared Socioeconomic Pathway, e.g., demographics, changes in population growth and dietary makeup
52margd
We’ve been accidentally cooling the planet — and it’s about to stop
Shannon Osaka | 25 June 2024
...burning fossil fuels doesn’t just cause global warming — it also causes global cooling...
Tiny particles from the combustion of coal, oil and gas can reflect sunlight and spur the formation of clouds, shading the planet from the sun’s rays. Since the 1980s, those particles have offset between 40 and 80 percent of the warming caused by greenhouse gases.
And now, as society cleans up pollution, that cooling effect is waning. New regulations have cut the amount of sulfur aerosols from global shipping traffic across the oceans; China, fighting its own air pollution problem, has slashed sulfur pollution dramatically in the last decade.
...scientists at the University of Maryland argued that the decrease in aerosols could double the rate of warming in the 2020s, compared to the rate since 1980. But other researchers have critiqued their results.
Many experts believe the effect is likely to be modest — between 0.05 and 0.1 degrees Celsius. “I don’t think it’s possible to get better than a factor of two, in terms of how uncertain we are,” said Michael Diamond, a professor of meteorology and environmental science at Florida State University.
Some scientists see the shipping regulation as an analog to a way that researchers are exploring to halt global warming: purposefully brightening clouds using less polluting methods.
...If aerosols have been masking cooling much more than expected, for example, the world could be poised to blow past its climate targets without realizing it...
WaPo via https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/we-ve-been-accidentally-cooling-the...
Shannon Osaka | 25 June 2024
...burning fossil fuels doesn’t just cause global warming — it also causes global cooling...
Tiny particles from the combustion of coal, oil and gas can reflect sunlight and spur the formation of clouds, shading the planet from the sun’s rays. Since the 1980s, those particles have offset between 40 and 80 percent of the warming caused by greenhouse gases.
And now, as society cleans up pollution, that cooling effect is waning. New regulations have cut the amount of sulfur aerosols from global shipping traffic across the oceans; China, fighting its own air pollution problem, has slashed sulfur pollution dramatically in the last decade.
...scientists at the University of Maryland argued that the decrease in aerosols could double the rate of warming in the 2020s, compared to the rate since 1980. But other researchers have critiqued their results.
Many experts believe the effect is likely to be modest — between 0.05 and 0.1 degrees Celsius. “I don’t think it’s possible to get better than a factor of two, in terms of how uncertain we are,” said Michael Diamond, a professor of meteorology and environmental science at Florida State University.
Some scientists see the shipping regulation as an analog to a way that researchers are exploring to halt global warming: purposefully brightening clouds using less polluting methods.
...If aerosols have been masking cooling much more than expected, for example, the world could be poised to blow past its climate targets without realizing it...
WaPo via https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/we-ve-been-accidentally-cooling-the...
53margd
How much carbon was in the atmosphere when you were born?
https://www.nature.org/en-us/get-involved/how-to-help/carbon-footprint-calculato...
https://www.nature.org/en-us/get-involved/how-to-help/carbon-footprint-calculato...
54margd
Sarah R. Weiskopf et al. 2024. Biodiversity loss reduces global terrestrial carbon storage. Nature Communications volume 15, Article number: 4354 (22 May 2024). https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-47872-7 Open access.
Abstract
... Here, we assess the consequences of plant biodiversity loss for carbon storage under multiple climate and land-use change scenarios. We link a macroecological model projecting changes in vascular plant richness under different scenarios with empirical data on relationships between biodiversity and biomass. We find that biodiversity declines from climate and land use change could lead to a global loss of between 7.44-103.14 PgC {carbon} (global sustainability scenario) and 10.87-145.95 PgC (fossil-fueled development scenario). This indicates a self-reinforcing feedback loop, where higher levels of climate change lead to greater biodiversity loss, which in turn leads to greater carbon emissions and ultimately more climate change. Conversely, biodiversity conservation and restoration can help achieve climate change mitigation goals.
Abstract
... Here, we assess the consequences of plant biodiversity loss for carbon storage under multiple climate and land-use change scenarios. We link a macroecological model projecting changes in vascular plant richness under different scenarios with empirical data on relationships between biodiversity and biomass. We find that biodiversity declines from climate and land use change could lead to a global loss of between 7.44-103.14 PgC {carbon} (global sustainability scenario) and 10.87-145.95 PgC (fossil-fueled development scenario). This indicates a self-reinforcing feedback loop, where higher levels of climate change lead to greater biodiversity loss, which in turn leads to greater carbon emissions and ultimately more climate change. Conversely, biodiversity conservation and restoration can help achieve climate change mitigation goals.
55margd
Category 5! And it's barely July... Poor li'l islands... :(
National Hurricane Center @NHC_Atlantic | 5:15 AM · Jul 2, 2024:
Here are the 5am EDT Tuesday Key Messages for Category 5 Hurricane #Beryl over the eastern Caribbean . New for this advisory is a Hurricane Watch for all of the Cayman Islands. More: http://hurricanes.gov
Key messages NOAA Beryl 5 am 2 July (https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1808066981889036518/photo/1)
National Hurricane Center @NHC_Atlantic | 5:15 AM · Jul 2, 2024:
Here are the 5am EDT Tuesday Key Messages for Category 5 Hurricane #Beryl over the eastern Caribbean . New for this advisory is a Hurricane Watch for all of the Cayman Islands. More: http://hurricanes.gov
Key messages NOAA Beryl 5 am 2 July (https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1808066981889036518/photo/1)
56margd
17 Places Where You Can Watch Climate Change Happening Right In Front Of You
Sarah Jameson | July 5, 2024
1) Thwaites Glacier, Antarctica
2) Great Barrier Reef, Australia
3) Mount Kilimanjaro, Tanzania
4) Venice, Italy
5) Amazon Rainforest, Brazil
6) Bangladesh River Deltas
7) Miami, Florida, USA
8) Sundarbans Mangrove Forest, India and Bangladesh
9) Alaska’s Glaciers, USA
10) Tuvalu, Pacific Ocean
11) Rhone Valley, Switzerland
12) Kiribati Islands, Pacific Ocean
13) Patagonia Ice Fields, Argentina
14) Solomon Islands
15) Pizol Glacier, Switzerland
16) Siberia, Russia
17) The Maldives
https://greenbuildingelements.com/17-places-where-you-can-watch-climate-change-h...
___________________________________
The Race to Save Glacial Ice Records Before They Melt Away
Nicola Jones | July 1, 2024
As glaciers melt around the globe, scientists are racing to retrieve ice cores that contain key historical records of temperature and climate that are preserved in the ice. Researchers are also pushing to gather ancient relics locked in the ice before they are lost to warming...
https://e360.yale.edu/features/glacier-melt-ice-cores-artifacts-meteorites
Sarah Jameson | July 5, 2024
1) Thwaites Glacier, Antarctica
2) Great Barrier Reef, Australia
3) Mount Kilimanjaro, Tanzania
4) Venice, Italy
5) Amazon Rainforest, Brazil
6) Bangladesh River Deltas
7) Miami, Florida, USA
8) Sundarbans Mangrove Forest, India and Bangladesh
9) Alaska’s Glaciers, USA
10) Tuvalu, Pacific Ocean
11) Rhone Valley, Switzerland
12) Kiribati Islands, Pacific Ocean
13) Patagonia Ice Fields, Argentina
14) Solomon Islands
15) Pizol Glacier, Switzerland
16) Siberia, Russia
17) The Maldives
https://greenbuildingelements.com/17-places-where-you-can-watch-climate-change-h...
___________________________________
The Race to Save Glacial Ice Records Before They Melt Away
Nicola Jones | July 1, 2024
As glaciers melt around the globe, scientists are racing to retrieve ice cores that contain key historical records of temperature and climate that are preserved in the ice. Researchers are also pushing to gather ancient relics locked in the ice before they are lost to warming...
https://e360.yale.edu/features/glacier-melt-ice-cores-artifacts-meteorites
57margd
The Drowning South: where seas are rising at alarming speed
Mooney, Dennis, Crowe, Muyskens | 29 April 2024
Seas in the Southern United States have risen dramatically since 2010. The extra water has upended life — flooding homes, choking septic systems and deluging roads.
{Miami 6.0"}
{ NC 7.3"}
{~ Houston 8.4"}
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/interactive/2024/southern-us-...
Mooney, Dennis, Crowe, Muyskens | 29 April 2024
Seas in the Southern United States have risen dramatically since 2010. The extra water has upended life — flooding homes, choking septic systems and deluging roads.
{Miami 6.0"}
{ NC 7.3"}
{~ Houston 8.4"}
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/interactive/2024/southern-us-...
58margd
Wikipedia: The Mackenzie River flows through a vast, thinly populated region of forest and tundra entirely within the Northwest Territories in Canada, although its many tributaries reach into five other Canadian provinces and territories. The river's main stem is 1,738 kilometres (1,080 mi) long, flowing north-northwest from Great Slave Lake into the Arctic Ocean, where it forms a large delta at its mouth. Its extensive watershed drains about 20 percent of Canada... The ultimate source of the Mackenzie River is Thutade Lake, in the Northern Interior of British Columbia.
In summer most of its communities rely on river barge for supplies, including fuel to fight ever more frequent wildfires.
(If I remember correctly the collapse of an ice dam in the Mackenzie as the glaciers retreated might have been responsible for failure of earth barrier between the Mediterranean and Black Seas, resulting in all those flood stories? When the Mackenzie's ice dam broke, waters rose 4-6" in Iraq's river mouth. THAT's how big it was/is.)
'Nobody has these stories': Canada's longest river at record low levels
Bob Weber, The Canadian Press | July 8, 2024
...Water levels are about two metres below average, said territorial hydrologist Ryan Connon. Normal seasonal fluctuations are about 50 centimetres. {"unprecedented"}
...That drop is even more dramatic, because two years ago rivers and lakes in the Mackenzie system were at all-time highs.
...Last week, the Canadian Coast Guard abandoned attempts to monitor and mark hazards along almost the entire territorial length of the river... There are no all-season roads along most of the river's valley. Communities are supplied by air or river barge for essentials from groceries to building supplies.
..."We've been experiencing extreme drought over the entire Mackenzie River Basin over the last two years, coupled with extremely high temperatures," Connon said. "We're definitely seeing a climate change signal."
{Douglas Yallee, mayor of Tulita, N.W.T., a village on the river about halfway up its length} said he worries that having to fly in supplies will increase costs for a community that can ill afford it. As well, he said Tulita's supply of aviation fuel is low as the wildfire season proceeds. "Fire season's back, and they're going to be burning up a lot of fuel."
Nor is the low water limited to the Mackenzie. Great Bear and Great Slave Lakes are at or near their lowest-ever levels, as are smaller rivers feeding into the Mackenzie...
https://ca.yahoo.com/news/nobody-stories-canadas-longest-river-080014252.html
In summer most of its communities rely on river barge for supplies, including fuel to fight ever more frequent wildfires.
(If I remember correctly the collapse of an ice dam in the Mackenzie as the glaciers retreated might have been responsible for failure of earth barrier between the Mediterranean and Black Seas, resulting in all those flood stories? When the Mackenzie's ice dam broke, waters rose 4-6" in Iraq's river mouth. THAT's how big it was/is.)
'Nobody has these stories': Canada's longest river at record low levels
Bob Weber, The Canadian Press | July 8, 2024
...Water levels are about two metres below average, said territorial hydrologist Ryan Connon. Normal seasonal fluctuations are about 50 centimetres. {"unprecedented"}
...That drop is even more dramatic, because two years ago rivers and lakes in the Mackenzie system were at all-time highs.
...Last week, the Canadian Coast Guard abandoned attempts to monitor and mark hazards along almost the entire territorial length of the river... There are no all-season roads along most of the river's valley. Communities are supplied by air or river barge for essentials from groceries to building supplies.
..."We've been experiencing extreme drought over the entire Mackenzie River Basin over the last two years, coupled with extremely high temperatures," Connon said. "We're definitely seeing a climate change signal."
{Douglas Yallee, mayor of Tulita, N.W.T., a village on the river about halfway up its length} said he worries that having to fly in supplies will increase costs for a community that can ill afford it. As well, he said Tulita's supply of aviation fuel is low as the wildfire season proceeds. "Fire season's back, and they're going to be burning up a lot of fuel."
Nor is the low water limited to the Mackenzie. Great Bear and Great Slave Lakes are at or near their lowest-ever levels, as are smaller rivers feeding into the Mackenzie...
https://ca.yahoo.com/news/nobody-stories-canadas-longest-river-080014252.html
59margd
As World’s Springs Vanish, Ripple Effects Alter Ecosystems
Christian Schwägerl | July 10, 2024
Springs, which bring groundwater to the surface and support a host of unique species, are disappearing globally, victims of development and drought. Researchers are working to document and map these life-giving habitats in an effort to save them before they are gone.
...springs ... dotted across Earth’s land surface play a powerful role: They connect reservoirs of groundwater to the outside, sunlit world. Only so-called “fossil” aquifers — ancient bodies of groundwater that do not recharge — lack a link with the surface. Without a continual connection to groundwater, which also feeds rivers, many landscapes would quickly dry up and become hotter. In addition, springs are home to a wide range of highly specialized species, some of which live outside by night and in the darkness of groundwater by day...
... scientists ... determined in January 2024 that “widespread, rapid, and accelerating groundwater-level declines” are underway in many regions of world, in some cases by up to 50 centimeters per year. Sustained rain can help replenish aquifers, but this is not a given as the climate continues to change. In Germany, many months with intensive rainfall still haven’t balanced out a water deficit from six years of drought, satellite measurements show. In the Swiss survey, almost one in five springs had dried up or could no longer be located ... half of 126 springs in the U.S. for which long-term records exist exhibited declines in discharge...
https://e360.yale.edu/features/endangered-water-springs
Christian Schwägerl | July 10, 2024
Springs, which bring groundwater to the surface and support a host of unique species, are disappearing globally, victims of development and drought. Researchers are working to document and map these life-giving habitats in an effort to save them before they are gone.
...springs ... dotted across Earth’s land surface play a powerful role: They connect reservoirs of groundwater to the outside, sunlit world. Only so-called “fossil” aquifers — ancient bodies of groundwater that do not recharge — lack a link with the surface. Without a continual connection to groundwater, which also feeds rivers, many landscapes would quickly dry up and become hotter. In addition, springs are home to a wide range of highly specialized species, some of which live outside by night and in the darkness of groundwater by day...
... scientists ... determined in January 2024 that “widespread, rapid, and accelerating groundwater-level declines” are underway in many regions of world, in some cases by up to 50 centimeters per year. Sustained rain can help replenish aquifers, but this is not a given as the climate continues to change. In Germany, many months with intensive rainfall still haven’t balanced out a water deficit from six years of drought, satellite measurements show. In the Swiss survey, almost one in five springs had dried up or could no longer be located ... half of 126 springs in the U.S. for which long-term records exist exhibited declines in discharge...
https://e360.yale.edu/features/endangered-water-springs
60margd
Fresh hell.
The New York Times @nytimes | 5:00 AM · Jul 11, 2024 {X}:
Like people, fires traditionally rest at night.
But climate change is changing that, causing more fires to burn overnight, growing bigger, lasting longer and challenging the fire teams trying to control them.
---------------------------------------
Hot Nights Fuel Wildfires in California, Complicating Containment
Austyn Gaffney | July 10, 2024
Climate change is causing more fires to burn overnight, growing bigger, lasting longer and challenging the fire teams trying to control them.
Over the July 4 weekend, hundreds of fires sparked across California, feeding on the hot, dry conditions of an ongoing heat wave.
But some of these fires were strange.
They grew rapidly and expanded their territory at a time when fires, like people, traditionally rest: at night...
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/10/climate/wildfires-heat-wave-night-temperature...
The New York Times @nytimes | 5:00 AM · Jul 11, 2024 {X}:
Like people, fires traditionally rest at night.
But climate change is changing that, causing more fires to burn overnight, growing bigger, lasting longer and challenging the fire teams trying to control them.
---------------------------------------
Hot Nights Fuel Wildfires in California, Complicating Containment
Austyn Gaffney | July 10, 2024
Climate change is causing more fires to burn overnight, growing bigger, lasting longer and challenging the fire teams trying to control them.
Over the July 4 weekend, hundreds of fires sparked across California, feeding on the hot, dry conditions of an ongoing heat wave.
But some of these fires were strange.
They grew rapidly and expanded their territory at a time when fires, like people, traditionally rest: at night...
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/10/climate/wildfires-heat-wave-night-temperature...
61margd
"Heat islands" worsening extreme temperatures across the U.S.
Rebecca Falconer | Jul 11, 2024
As dangerously high temperatures sweep much of the U.S., new analysis finds urban heat islands can significantly worsen the situation during such extreme weather events.
...Urban heat islands (UHI) are boosting temperatures within 65 major U.S. cities that are home to 50 million people, or 15% of the total U.S. population...
Nearly 34 million, or 68% of the 50 million people, were found to live in environments where UHIs were capable of boosting temperatures by at least 8°F.
Contributing factors driving the UHI index are built environments, such as roads, buildings and parking lots, a reduced percentage of green space with not enough plants to help cool the air and dense populations.
More than 5 million people in New York City, Chicago and San Francisco live in environments where UHIs are capable of amplifying summer temperatures by at least 10°F...
https://www.axios.com/2024/07/11/heat-islands-us-record-temperatures?utm_source=...
----------------------------------------------
Urban Heat Hot Spots in 65 Cities
Climate Central | July 9, 2024
https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/urban-heat-islands-2024
Rebecca Falconer | Jul 11, 2024
As dangerously high temperatures sweep much of the U.S., new analysis finds urban heat islands can significantly worsen the situation during such extreme weather events.
...Urban heat islands (UHI) are boosting temperatures within 65 major U.S. cities that are home to 50 million people, or 15% of the total U.S. population...
Nearly 34 million, or 68% of the 50 million people, were found to live in environments where UHIs were capable of boosting temperatures by at least 8°F.
Contributing factors driving the UHI index are built environments, such as roads, buildings and parking lots, a reduced percentage of green space with not enough plants to help cool the air and dense populations.
More than 5 million people in New York City, Chicago and San Francisco live in environments where UHIs are capable of amplifying summer temperatures by at least 10°F...
https://www.axios.com/2024/07/11/heat-islands-us-record-temperatures?utm_source=...
----------------------------------------------
Urban Heat Hot Spots in 65 Cities
Climate Central | July 9, 2024
https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/urban-heat-islands-2024
62margd
Devastation as world’s biggest wetland burns: ‘those that cannot run don’t stand a chance’
Harriet Barber | 9 Jul 2024
...More than 760,000 hectares (1.8m acres) have already burned across the Brazilian Pantanal in 2024
...Stretching across Brazil, Bolivia and Paraguay, the Pantanal covers 16.9m hectares (42m acres) and harbours rich biodiversity. It is one of the world’s main refuges for jaguars and houses a host of vulnerable and endangered species, including giant river otters, giant armadillos and hyacinth macaws. Its ecosystem is also unique. Every year its “flood pulse” sees it swell with water during the rainy season and empty throughout the dry months. But the climate crisis, droughts and weak rains have disrupted this seasonal pattern, turning the land into a tinderbox.
...humans start the vast majority of wildfires. Ranchers use fires to clear land for their cattle – as they have for centuries – but those that were once contained by the wetland’s abundant water now rage out of control.
...More than 90% of the Pantanal is privately owned, of which 80% is used for cattle ranching. Almost 95% of outbreaks in the first half of 2024 started in private areas...
The wetlands have also lost 68% of their water area since 1985, and suffered a lack of rainfall over the past six months. “The Pantanal is getting drier and drier. It used to flood for six months, but now it floods only two or three months,” says {Gustavo Figueirôa, a biologist at SOS Pantanal, a non-governmental organisation}.
...André Luiz Siqueira, a director at the conservation organisation Ecoa in Brazil, explains that dead vegetation accumulates during the flood period, becoming highly combustible during the dry season. The layers of dense, built-up material “can burn underground for weeks,”...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jul/09/devastation-as-world...
Harriet Barber | 9 Jul 2024
...More than 760,000 hectares (1.8m acres) have already burned across the Brazilian Pantanal in 2024
...Stretching across Brazil, Bolivia and Paraguay, the Pantanal covers 16.9m hectares (42m acres) and harbours rich biodiversity. It is one of the world’s main refuges for jaguars and houses a host of vulnerable and endangered species, including giant river otters, giant armadillos and hyacinth macaws. Its ecosystem is also unique. Every year its “flood pulse” sees it swell with water during the rainy season and empty throughout the dry months. But the climate crisis, droughts and weak rains have disrupted this seasonal pattern, turning the land into a tinderbox.
...humans start the vast majority of wildfires. Ranchers use fires to clear land for their cattle – as they have for centuries – but those that were once contained by the wetland’s abundant water now rage out of control.
...More than 90% of the Pantanal is privately owned, of which 80% is used for cattle ranching. Almost 95% of outbreaks in the first half of 2024 started in private areas...
The wetlands have also lost 68% of their water area since 1985, and suffered a lack of rainfall over the past six months. “The Pantanal is getting drier and drier. It used to flood for six months, but now it floods only two or three months,” says {Gustavo Figueirôa, a biologist at SOS Pantanal, a non-governmental organisation}.
...André Luiz Siqueira, a director at the conservation organisation Ecoa in Brazil, explains that dead vegetation accumulates during the flood period, becoming highly combustible during the dry season. The layers of dense, built-up material “can burn underground for weeks,”...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jul/09/devastation-as-world...
63margd
As CO2 Levels Keep Rising, World’s Drylands Are Turning Green
Fred Pearce • July 16, 2024
Despite warnings that climate change would create widespread desertification, many drylands are getting greener because of increased CO2 in the air — a trend that recent studies indicate will continue. But scientists warn this added vegetation may soak up scarce water supplies...
https://e360.yale.edu/features/greening-drylands-carbon-dioxide-climate-change
Fred Pearce • July 16, 2024
Despite warnings that climate change would create widespread desertification, many drylands are getting greener because of increased CO2 in the air — a trend that recent studies indicate will continue. But scientists warn this added vegetation may soak up scarce water supplies...
https://e360.yale.edu/features/greening-drylands-carbon-dioxide-climate-change
64margd
“Majorities of Americans think global warming is affecting many environmental problems in the United States:
extreme heat (74%),
wildfires (73%),
droughts (72%),
rising sea levels (70%),
air pollution (69%),
flooding (68%),
hurricanes (68%)…”
------------------------------------
Climate Change in the American Mind: Beliefs & Attitudes, Spring 2024
This report is based on findings from a nationally representative survey – Climate Change in the American Mind – conducted jointly by the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication and the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication. Interview dates: Interview dates: April 25 – May 4, 2024. Interviews: 1,031 adults (18+). Average margin of error: +/- 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
Executive Summary...
https://www.climatechangecommunication.org/all/climate-change-in-the-american-mi...
extreme heat (74%),
wildfires (73%),
droughts (72%),
rising sea levels (70%),
air pollution (69%),
flooding (68%),
hurricanes (68%)…”
------------------------------------
Climate Change in the American Mind: Beliefs & Attitudes, Spring 2024
This report is based on findings from a nationally representative survey – Climate Change in the American Mind – conducted jointly by the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication and the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication. Interview dates: Interview dates: April 25 – May 4, 2024. Interviews: 1,031 adults (18+). Average margin of error: +/- 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
Executive Summary...
https://www.climatechangecommunication.org/all/climate-change-in-the-american-mi...
65margd
Astronaut who spent 178 days in space reveals the man-made structure he saw that made him realise the big ‘lie’
Anish Vij | 11 July 2024
... {former NASA space cadet Ronald Garan} ... on why he thinks that humans are 'living a lie' and our general outlook on day-to-day life is backwards...
"When I looked out the window of the International Space Station, I saw the paparazzi-like flashes of lightning storms, I saw dancing curtains of auroras that seemed so close it was as if we could reach out and touch them. And I saw the unbelievable thinness of our planet's atmosphere. In that moment, I was hit with the sobering realisation that that paper-thin layer keeps every living thing on our planet alive. I saw an iridescent biosphere teeming with life.
"I didn't see the economy. But since our human-made systems treat everything, including the very life-support systems of our planet, as the wholly owned subsidiary of the global economy, it's obvious from the vantage point of space that we're living a lie."
He insisted we need to focus on more important issues like the climate crisis, instead of the economy.
"It's obvious from the vantage point of space that we're living a lie... We need to move from thinking economy, society, planet to planet, society, economy. That's when we're going to continue our evolutionary process. There's this light bulb that pops up where they realise how interconnected and interdependent we all are. We're not going to have peace on Earth until we recognise the basic fact of the interrelated structure of all reality."
...'Space philosopher' Frank White authored the book The Overview Effect: Space Exploration and Human Evolution ... offered some advice for Earthlings who fancy having a similar awakening...
https://www.ladbible.com/news/science/what-is-the-overview-effect-astronauts-nas...
-------------------------------------------
ETA:
I went to space and discovered an enormous lie | Ron Garan (7:36)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJGCAWTgbn0
Anish Vij | 11 July 2024
... {former NASA space cadet Ronald Garan} ... on why he thinks that humans are 'living a lie' and our general outlook on day-to-day life is backwards...
"When I looked out the window of the International Space Station, I saw the paparazzi-like flashes of lightning storms, I saw dancing curtains of auroras that seemed so close it was as if we could reach out and touch them. And I saw the unbelievable thinness of our planet's atmosphere. In that moment, I was hit with the sobering realisation that that paper-thin layer keeps every living thing on our planet alive. I saw an iridescent biosphere teeming with life.
"I didn't see the economy. But since our human-made systems treat everything, including the very life-support systems of our planet, as the wholly owned subsidiary of the global economy, it's obvious from the vantage point of space that we're living a lie."
He insisted we need to focus on more important issues like the climate crisis, instead of the economy.
"It's obvious from the vantage point of space that we're living a lie... We need to move from thinking economy, society, planet to planet, society, economy. That's when we're going to continue our evolutionary process. There's this light bulb that pops up where they realise how interconnected and interdependent we all are. We're not going to have peace on Earth until we recognise the basic fact of the interrelated structure of all reality."
...'Space philosopher' Frank White authored the book The Overview Effect: Space Exploration and Human Evolution ... offered some advice for Earthlings who fancy having a similar awakening...
https://www.ladbible.com/news/science/what-is-the-overview-effect-astronauts-nas...
-------------------------------------------
ETA:
I went to space and discovered an enormous lie | Ron Garan (7:36)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJGCAWTgbn0
66margd
Five Just Stop Oil activists receive record sentences {4-5 years} for planning to block M25
Damien Gayle | Thu 18 Jul 2024
Campaigners receive longest ever sentences for non-violent protest after being convicted of conspiracy to cause public nuisance...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jul/18/five-just-stop-oil-s...
Damien Gayle | Thu 18 Jul 2024
Campaigners receive longest ever sentences for non-violent protest after being convicted of conspiracy to cause public nuisance...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jul/18/five-just-stop-oil-s...
67margd
Natural CO2 sinks on land & in oceans weakening?
Little to buffer CO2 increases going forward? :(
Couldn't find Cornell paper, but recent Nature publication (below) sees decline in forest carbon sink, but some offset in reforestation esp in China?
Chris Gloninger, CCM, CBM @ChrisGloninger | 2:45 PM · Jul 19, 2024 {X}:
@ametsoc Certified Consulting Meteorologist | BS MS Started 1st weekly 📺series on the #climatecrisis. Senior Climate Scientist.
Read on X: https://x.com/ChrisGloninger/status/1814371077411225900
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1814371077411225900.html
‼️ Concerning paper from Cornell about our global carbon sink - here is a 🧵on the findings:
The average CO2 growth rate during 2013-2022 was 2.42 ± 0.08 ppm per year.
In 2023, it increased to 3.37 ± 0.11 ppm per year at the Mauna Loa station (MLO) and 2.82 ± 0.08 ppm per yr 1/
The OCO-2 satellite observations showed a growth rate of 3.03 ± 0.14 ppm per year.
The higher MLO growth rate compared to MBL in 2023 indicates a potential CO2 source anomaly in the tropics. 2/
Emissions increased by 0.1 to 1.1% in 2023 relative to 2022, which only partially explains the growth rate anomaly.
This suggests that natural carbon sinks in the land and oceans were significantly reduced in 2023. 3/
Global temperatures in 2023 were 0.6°C above the 1991-2020 average and 1.48°C above pre-industrial levels.
Extreme summer temperatures and droughts in the northern mid-latitudes contributed to weaker carbon sinks. 4/
Record boreal forest fires in Canada in 2023 contributed significantly to CO2 emissions.
The transition from La Niña to a moderate El Niño in 2023 influenced carbon sinks, with La Niña generally enhancing and El Niño reducing them. 5/
Low water storage on land, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, stressed plant systems and further reduced carbon uptake.
The Amazon experienced extreme drought, contributing to a significant drop in carbon sink. 6/
A combination of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and high-resolution atmospheric inversions using OCO-2 data provided insights into regional CO2 flux anomalies.
The ocean carbon sink showed an increase, primarily due to changes in the Pacific and Southern Oceans 7/
Extremely hot grid cells (above the 95th percentile of temperature anomalies) contributed to a gross carbon loss of -1.73 GtC per year globally.
These cells covered only 8.61% of the land area but had a disproportionate impact on reducing carbon uptake. 8/
The record weak land carbon sink in 2023 despite a moderate El Niño suggests potential future challenges in maintaining carbon sinks under continued warming. 9/
Urgent actions are needed to enhance carbon sequestration and reduce greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate the impact of natural CO2 sinks weakening. 10/Fin
_________________________________
Forests endure as carbon sink despite regional pressures, new research reveals {4p}
Phys Org | July 17 2024
...The {USDA, Woodshole + scientists all over the world} study titled "The enduring world forest carbon sink", published in the 18 July 2024 issue of the journal Nature, highlights the critical role of forests in mitigating climate change. The study further shows that deforestation and disturbances like wildfires are threatening this vital carbon sink...
Key findings:
1. BOREAL FORESTS in the Northern Hemisphere, spanning regions like Alaska, Canada, and Russia, have experienced a significant decline in their carbon sink capacity, dropping by 36%. This decrease is attributed to factors including increased disturbances from wildfires, insect outbreaks, and soil warming.
2. TROPICAL FORESTS have also seen a decline, with deforestation causing a 31% decrease in their ability to absorb carbon. However, regrowth in previously abandoned agricultural lands and logged areas has partially offset these losses, keeping the net carbon flux in the tropics close to neutral.
3. TEMPERATE FORESTS, on the other hand, have shown a 30% increase in their carbon sink capacity. This rise is largely due to extensive reforestation efforts, particularly in China.
-----------------------------------------
Yude Pan et al. 2024. The enduring world forest carbon sink. Nature volume 631, pages 563–569 (17 July 2024). https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07602-x
Abstract
...The global forest sink is equivalent to almost half of fossil-fuel emissions (7.8 ± 0.4 Pg C yr−1 in 1990–2019). However, two-thirds of the benefit from the sink has been negated by tropical deforestation (2.2 ± 0.5 Pg C yr−1 in 1990–2019). Although the global forest sink has endured undiminished for three decades, despite regional variations, it could be weakened by ageing forests, continuing deforestation and further intensification of disturbance regimes1. To protect the carbon sink, land management policies are needed to limit deforestation, promote forest restoration and improve timber-harvesting practices...
Little to buffer CO2 increases going forward? :(
Couldn't find Cornell paper, but recent Nature publication (below) sees decline in forest carbon sink, but some offset in reforestation esp in China?
Chris Gloninger, CCM, CBM @ChrisGloninger | 2:45 PM · Jul 19, 2024 {X}:
@ametsoc Certified Consulting Meteorologist | BS MS Started 1st weekly 📺series on the #climatecrisis. Senior Climate Scientist.
Read on X: https://x.com/ChrisGloninger/status/1814371077411225900
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1814371077411225900.html
‼️ Concerning paper from Cornell about our global carbon sink - here is a 🧵on the findings:
The average CO2 growth rate during 2013-2022 was 2.42 ± 0.08 ppm per year.
In 2023, it increased to 3.37 ± 0.11 ppm per year at the Mauna Loa station (MLO) and 2.82 ± 0.08 ppm per yr 1/
The OCO-2 satellite observations showed a growth rate of 3.03 ± 0.14 ppm per year.
The higher MLO growth rate compared to MBL in 2023 indicates a potential CO2 source anomaly in the tropics. 2/
Emissions increased by 0.1 to 1.1% in 2023 relative to 2022, which only partially explains the growth rate anomaly.
This suggests that natural carbon sinks in the land and oceans were significantly reduced in 2023. 3/
Global temperatures in 2023 were 0.6°C above the 1991-2020 average and 1.48°C above pre-industrial levels.
Extreme summer temperatures and droughts in the northern mid-latitudes contributed to weaker carbon sinks. 4/
Record boreal forest fires in Canada in 2023 contributed significantly to CO2 emissions.
The transition from La Niña to a moderate El Niño in 2023 influenced carbon sinks, with La Niña generally enhancing and El Niño reducing them. 5/
Low water storage on land, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, stressed plant systems and further reduced carbon uptake.
The Amazon experienced extreme drought, contributing to a significant drop in carbon sink. 6/
A combination of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and high-resolution atmospheric inversions using OCO-2 data provided insights into regional CO2 flux anomalies.
The ocean carbon sink showed an increase, primarily due to changes in the Pacific and Southern Oceans 7/
Extremely hot grid cells (above the 95th percentile of temperature anomalies) contributed to a gross carbon loss of -1.73 GtC per year globally.
These cells covered only 8.61% of the land area but had a disproportionate impact on reducing carbon uptake. 8/
The record weak land carbon sink in 2023 despite a moderate El Niño suggests potential future challenges in maintaining carbon sinks under continued warming. 9/
Urgent actions are needed to enhance carbon sequestration and reduce greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate the impact of natural CO2 sinks weakening. 10/Fin
_________________________________
Forests endure as carbon sink despite regional pressures, new research reveals {4p}
Phys Org | July 17 2024
...The {USDA, Woodshole + scientists all over the world} study titled "The enduring world forest carbon sink", published in the 18 July 2024 issue of the journal Nature, highlights the critical role of forests in mitigating climate change. The study further shows that deforestation and disturbances like wildfires are threatening this vital carbon sink...
Key findings:
1. BOREAL FORESTS in the Northern Hemisphere, spanning regions like Alaska, Canada, and Russia, have experienced a significant decline in their carbon sink capacity, dropping by 36%. This decrease is attributed to factors including increased disturbances from wildfires, insect outbreaks, and soil warming.
2. TROPICAL FORESTS have also seen a decline, with deforestation causing a 31% decrease in their ability to absorb carbon. However, regrowth in previously abandoned agricultural lands and logged areas has partially offset these losses, keeping the net carbon flux in the tropics close to neutral.
3. TEMPERATE FORESTS, on the other hand, have shown a 30% increase in their carbon sink capacity. This rise is largely due to extensive reforestation efforts, particularly in China.
-----------------------------------------
Yude Pan et al. 2024. The enduring world forest carbon sink. Nature volume 631, pages 563–569 (17 July 2024). https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07602-x
Abstract
...The global forest sink is equivalent to almost half of fossil-fuel emissions (7.8 ± 0.4 Pg C yr−1 in 1990–2019). However, two-thirds of the benefit from the sink has been negated by tropical deforestation (2.2 ± 0.5 Pg C yr−1 in 1990–2019). Although the global forest sink has endured undiminished for three decades, despite regional variations, it could be weakened by ageing forests, continuing deforestation and further intensification of disturbance regimes1. To protect the carbon sink, land management policies are needed to limit deforestation, promote forest restoration and improve timber-harvesting practices...
68margd
Welcome steps although Supreme Court (Chevron) and an R president could overturn at least the EPA rules(?)
Climate action bloomed this spring (US)
Joanna Foster | May 10, 2024
1. Cleaner cars and trucks
In March, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency ... announced new tailpipe emission standards for newly manufactured passenger vehicles. The new rule, which applies to model years 2027 through 2032, is expected to prevent 7 billion tons of climate pollution by 2055. That's more than all the greenhouse gas emissions emitted by the U.S. last year.
2. Power plant progress
In April, the EPA ... announced standards to slash greenhouse gas pollution from new gas-burning power plants and existing coal-burning plants ... will prevent up to 1,200 premature deaths and reduce carbon emissions by 1.38 billion tons — that’s like taking 328 million cars off the road.
3. 3. The business case
The Securities and Exchange Commission ... this spring, the SEC moved to require large publicly traded companies to disclose any climate-related risks to their business strategy, operations, or financial health that a reasonable investor would find relevant. The rule also calls for publicly traded companies to disclose measures they are taking to mitigate or adapt to risks.
...“I’ve been fighting for cleaner air and a safer climate for over 30 years,” says EDF general counsel Vickie Patton. “Progress is sometimes painfully slow. With these vital new EPA standards and the SEC’s improved protections for investors and our financial system, and the historic Inflation Reduction Act investments in climate solutions and environmental justice, you can see that a better future is within reach.”
https://vitalsigns.edf.org/story/climate-action-bloomed-spring
Climate action bloomed this spring (US)
Joanna Foster | May 10, 2024
1. Cleaner cars and trucks
In March, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency ... announced new tailpipe emission standards for newly manufactured passenger vehicles. The new rule, which applies to model years 2027 through 2032, is expected to prevent 7 billion tons of climate pollution by 2055. That's more than all the greenhouse gas emissions emitted by the U.S. last year.
2. Power plant progress
In April, the EPA ... announced standards to slash greenhouse gas pollution from new gas-burning power plants and existing coal-burning plants ... will prevent up to 1,200 premature deaths and reduce carbon emissions by 1.38 billion tons — that’s like taking 328 million cars off the road.
3. 3. The business case
The Securities and Exchange Commission ... this spring, the SEC moved to require large publicly traded companies to disclose any climate-related risks to their business strategy, operations, or financial health that a reasonable investor would find relevant. The rule also calls for publicly traded companies to disclose measures they are taking to mitigate or adapt to risks.
...“I’ve been fighting for cleaner air and a safer climate for over 30 years,” says EDF general counsel Vickie Patton. “Progress is sometimes painfully slow. With these vital new EPA standards and the SEC’s improved protections for investors and our financial system, and the historic Inflation Reduction Act investments in climate solutions and environmental justice, you can see that a better future is within reach.”
https://vitalsigns.edf.org/story/climate-action-bloomed-spring
69margd
For the second year in a row, Antarctic sea-ice extent reached 5 standard deviations below the 1991-2020 daily mean, yesterday at -5.08σ.
Graph Antarctic sea ice extent (https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/1815368566935372261/photo/1)
- Prof. Eliot Jacobson @EliotJacobson | 8:49 AM · Jul 22, 2024 {x}
Retired professor of mathematics and computer science
Graph Antarctic sea ice extent (https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/1815368566935372261/photo/1)
- Prof. Eliot Jacobson @EliotJacobson | 8:49 AM · Jul 22, 2024 {x}
Retired professor of mathematics and computer science
70margd
Climate inflation is eating your paycheck — and it’s only going to get worse
William S. Becker | 07/22/24
...cooling ... food prices ... home insurance ... labor productivity ...
However, the biggest threat to the economy is the so-called climate bubble*. Realtor.com says nearly 45 percent of homes in the United States, worth about $22 trillion, are at risk of severe or extreme damage from floods, high winds, wildfires or heat.
A study published last year in the journal Nature Climate Change showed that climate change lowers the value of at-risk properties, but the risks often are not reflected in home prices. Once climate risks are recognized and priced, home values could collapse with an impact comparable to the subprime mortgage bubble that burst in 2008 and helped create the Great Recession....
https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/4782252-climate-inflation-economi...
----------------------------------------
* The Climate Bubble: Real Estate and Extreme Weather
Bradley Intelligence Report / Client Alert
2/20/2024
...Climate Real Estate Bubble
In recent years, climate analysts have begun to warn of a looming “climate bubble” for real estate. As risks of extreme weather events from flooding to wildfires rise dramatically in coming years, lenders, insurance companies and others will revise valuations of millions of homes, popping a real estate bubble and resulting in crashing prices for homeowners. The crash could be especially detrimental for lower-income homeowners, many of whom hold the vast majority of their net worth in their home value. A 2023 study published in the journal Nature Climate Change found that nationally, property prices are overvalued by between $121 billion and $237 billion when compared to their actual flood risk. A 2022 study by actuarial firm Milliman put a much higher price tag on the bubble – $520 billion, with almost 3.5 million homeowners facing a drop in home value greater than 10% if flood risks were priced correctly.
This bubble could already be in the process of popping in insurance deserts like Florida, Louisiana and California, where the prevalence of flooding, hurricanes and wildfires has made homeowner’s insurance prohibitively expensive or simply impossible to procure. The insurance crisis is already pushing out lower-income buyers, and as existing homeowners begin to find the cost of insurance – or of owning an uninsured home – to be unsustainable, they will begin to sell, potentially triggering panic selling and a housing market collapse akin to that of 2008 in those regions. Real estate analysts caution that comparisons to the 2008 collapse only go so far: The Great Recession housing crisis of 2008 was relatively short-lived as fixes to the financial system helped the real estate market bounce back. Conversely, impacts from climate change are only expected to increase over time...
https://www.bradley.com/insights/publications/2024/02/:~:text=A%202023%20study%2....
William S. Becker | 07/22/24
...cooling ... food prices ... home insurance ... labor productivity ...
However, the biggest threat to the economy is the so-called climate bubble*. Realtor.com says nearly 45 percent of homes in the United States, worth about $22 trillion, are at risk of severe or extreme damage from floods, high winds, wildfires or heat.
A study published last year in the journal Nature Climate Change showed that climate change lowers the value of at-risk properties, but the risks often are not reflected in home prices. Once climate risks are recognized and priced, home values could collapse with an impact comparable to the subprime mortgage bubble that burst in 2008 and helped create the Great Recession....
https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/4782252-climate-inflation-economi...
----------------------------------------
* The Climate Bubble: Real Estate and Extreme Weather
Bradley Intelligence Report / Client Alert
2/20/2024
...Climate Real Estate Bubble
In recent years, climate analysts have begun to warn of a looming “climate bubble” for real estate. As risks of extreme weather events from flooding to wildfires rise dramatically in coming years, lenders, insurance companies and others will revise valuations of millions of homes, popping a real estate bubble and resulting in crashing prices for homeowners. The crash could be especially detrimental for lower-income homeowners, many of whom hold the vast majority of their net worth in their home value. A 2023 study published in the journal Nature Climate Change found that nationally, property prices are overvalued by between $121 billion and $237 billion when compared to their actual flood risk. A 2022 study by actuarial firm Milliman put a much higher price tag on the bubble – $520 billion, with almost 3.5 million homeowners facing a drop in home value greater than 10% if flood risks were priced correctly.
This bubble could already be in the process of popping in insurance deserts like Florida, Louisiana and California, where the prevalence of flooding, hurricanes and wildfires has made homeowner’s insurance prohibitively expensive or simply impossible to procure. The insurance crisis is already pushing out lower-income buyers, and as existing homeowners begin to find the cost of insurance – or of owning an uninsured home – to be unsustainable, they will begin to sell, potentially triggering panic selling and a housing market collapse akin to that of 2008 in those regions. Real estate analysts caution that comparisons to the 2008 collapse only go so far: The Great Recession housing crisis of 2008 was relatively short-lived as fixes to the financial system helped the real estate market bounce back. Conversely, impacts from climate change are only expected to increase over time...
https://www.bradley.com/insights/publications/2024/02/:~:text=A%202023%20study%2....
71margd
...In a study led by Smith and published last year, she concluded that every one degree Celsius of increased warming is set to boost jetstream-related turbulence by 9%-14%, depending on the season, through 2050. Another 2023 paper from the same lab group assessed weather reanalysis data and found that the most severe type of this sort of clear air turbulence has already increased by 55% from 1979 to 2020...
https://www.popsci.com/environment/climate-change-turbulence/
------------------------------
Isabel H Smith et al. 2023. Clear-air turbulence trends over the North Atlantic in high-resolution climate models. Climate Dynamics, Volume 61, pages 3063–3079, (6 March 2023) https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-023-06694-x (Open access)
Mark C. Prosser et al. 2023. Evidence for Large Increases in Clear-Air Turbulence Over the Past Four. Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 50, Issue 11, Jun 2023. (Open access)
72margd
'Extreme heat epidemic' hitting humanity, UN warns
DW | 25 July 2024
...Intense heat is often less visible than other devastating effects of climate change, such as storms or floods. But it is more deadly.
The "silent killer" was responsible for some 489,000 deaths per year between 2000 and 2019, compared to 16,000 deaths per year from cyclones, according to the UN "Call to Action on extreme heat" document released Thursday...
https://www.dw.com/en/extreme-heat-epidemic-hitting-humanity-un-warns/a-69769728
-------------------------------------
Secretary-General's Call to Action on Extreme Heat
UN | 25 July 2024
Crippling heat is everywhere. Billions of people around the world are wilting under increasingly severe heatwaves driven largely by a fossil-fuel charged, human-induced climate crisis. More than 70 per cent of the global workforce – 2.4 billion people – are now at high risk of extreme heat. The most vulnerable communities are hit hardest.
In response to the rapid rise in the scale, intensity, frequency and duration of extreme heat, UN Secretary-General António Guterres on 25 July 2024 called for an urgent and concerted effort to enhance international cooperation to address extreme heat in four critical areas:
1. Caring for the vulnerable
2. Protecting workers
3. Boosting resilience of economies and societies using data and science
4. Limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C by phasing out fossil fuels and scaling up investment in renewable energy.
https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/extreme-heat
DW | 25 July 2024
...Intense heat is often less visible than other devastating effects of climate change, such as storms or floods. But it is more deadly.
The "silent killer" was responsible for some 489,000 deaths per year between 2000 and 2019, compared to 16,000 deaths per year from cyclones, according to the UN "Call to Action on extreme heat" document released Thursday...
https://www.dw.com/en/extreme-heat-epidemic-hitting-humanity-un-warns/a-69769728
-------------------------------------
Secretary-General's Call to Action on Extreme Heat
UN | 25 July 2024
Crippling heat is everywhere. Billions of people around the world are wilting under increasingly severe heatwaves driven largely by a fossil-fuel charged, human-induced climate crisis. More than 70 per cent of the global workforce – 2.4 billion people – are now at high risk of extreme heat. The most vulnerable communities are hit hardest.
In response to the rapid rise in the scale, intensity, frequency and duration of extreme heat, UN Secretary-General António Guterres on 25 July 2024 called for an urgent and concerted effort to enhance international cooperation to address extreme heat in four critical areas:
1. Caring for the vulnerable
2. Protecting workers
3. Boosting resilience of economies and societies using data and science
4. Limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C by phasing out fossil fuels and scaling up investment in renewable energy.
https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/extreme-heat
73margd
How the climate sausage is made...
Inside the TC Energy Tower
...Liam Iliffe, now a former executive at TC Energy (and an ex-BC NDP staffer), talking about the energy company’s ambitious lobbying efforts that he claimed leveraged all sorts of political connections to get pro-pipeline messaging “stuck on government letterhead” ... at a “lunch and learn” session in late March at TC Energy, the Calgary-based pipeline giant that owns Coastal GasLink {https://www.coastalgaslink.com/} — and The Narwhal obtained a leaked two-hour recording of the call.
That leak spurred weeks of meticulous reporting by {Narwhal} ... as they sought to look into all the claims made on the recording. (Both TC Energy and the B.C. government deny Iliffe’s claims — and B.C. Attorney General Niki Sharma has asked for a watchdog probe into the alleged lobbying tactics.)...
Part 5: An influence playbook... seven key strategies, in the words of oil and gas executives.
1. Ghostwriting briefing notes and policy for ‘underpaid and overworked’ public servants
2. Trying to meet politicians casually for conversations that flow between ‘personal and professional, that advances our initiatives’
3. Spending ‘a lot of time influencing the media landscape’ to ‘shape stories, place stories, develop positive stories’
4. ‘Leveraging’ relationships with Canadian diplomats to have them ‘deliver a pro-LNG message’ to politicians
5. Using Indigenous leaders as ‘validators’ to sway government decisions
6. ‘Shaping media outcomes’ with targeted ad campaigns during protests and land defence
7. Doing ‘the government’s homework for them’
https://thenarwhal.ca/topics/inside-the-tc-energy-tower/
________________________________
Jasper, Alberta is/was such a beautiful spot. Corrupt officials should be put to work fighting these fires, IMO. Mexico, with all its own climate challenges, just sent fire fighters to help. Reportedly Alberta govt had cut firefighting budget?
Blaze that damaged Jasper, Alta. {30-50% destroyed}, was too powerful to stop, fire experts say
Weather Network | Jul. 26, 2024
A perfectly terrible combination of conditions created a wall of fire 100 metres tall...The wind, which blew as fast as 100 kilometres per hour, was relentless enough to push the flames five kilometres along the parched landscape in less than an hour at one point on Wednesday
... the blaze became so large, it created its own thunderstorm — a phenomenon that also drove the Horse River wildfire on its destructive path into Fort McMurray in 2016.
In these conditions, the airborne embers the fire is spewing out can travel a couple of kilometres, Flannigan said. It leaves natural firebreaks like rivers, lakes and roads futile to stop the spread...
...Parks Canada says firefighters remaining in Jasper have so far protected the hospital, schools, activity centre and wastewater treatment plant
...The fire should renew a conversation about the work all forested Canadian communities could be doing to prevent nearby blazes from becoming so threatening, he said. Those mitigations include thinning the surrounding forest, removing dead wood, constructing buildings with less flammable materials and considering more controlled burns and traditional Indigenous fire practices.
Fires that stay lower to the ground and are less intense are easier for firefighters to knock down and make measures such as protective sprinklers placed around properties more likely to be effective...
https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/news/weather/severe/blaze-that-damaged-jasp...
_______________________________
‘We are a skeleton crew out here’: UCP {United Conservative Party} cuts led to disastrous Alberta wildfire situation
Trina Moyles | May 10, 2023
Alberta wildfire fighters place much of the blame for the current situation on the shoulders of the UCP government, which has gutted firefighter programs and failed to retain staff...
https://thenarwhal.ca/alberta-wildfire-ucp-cuts/
Inside the TC Energy Tower
...Liam Iliffe, now a former executive at TC Energy (and an ex-BC NDP staffer), talking about the energy company’s ambitious lobbying efforts that he claimed leveraged all sorts of political connections to get pro-pipeline messaging “stuck on government letterhead” ... at a “lunch and learn” session in late March at TC Energy, the Calgary-based pipeline giant that owns Coastal GasLink {https://www.coastalgaslink.com/} — and The Narwhal obtained a leaked two-hour recording of the call.
That leak spurred weeks of meticulous reporting by {Narwhal} ... as they sought to look into all the claims made on the recording. (Both TC Energy and the B.C. government deny Iliffe’s claims — and B.C. Attorney General Niki Sharma has asked for a watchdog probe into the alleged lobbying tactics.)...
Part 5: An influence playbook... seven key strategies, in the words of oil and gas executives.
1. Ghostwriting briefing notes and policy for ‘underpaid and overworked’ public servants
2. Trying to meet politicians casually for conversations that flow between ‘personal and professional, that advances our initiatives’
3. Spending ‘a lot of time influencing the media landscape’ to ‘shape stories, place stories, develop positive stories’
4. ‘Leveraging’ relationships with Canadian diplomats to have them ‘deliver a pro-LNG message’ to politicians
5. Using Indigenous leaders as ‘validators’ to sway government decisions
6. ‘Shaping media outcomes’ with targeted ad campaigns during protests and land defence
7. Doing ‘the government’s homework for them’
https://thenarwhal.ca/topics/inside-the-tc-energy-tower/
________________________________
Jasper, Alberta is/was such a beautiful spot. Corrupt officials should be put to work fighting these fires, IMO. Mexico, with all its own climate challenges, just sent fire fighters to help. Reportedly Alberta govt had cut firefighting budget?
Blaze that damaged Jasper, Alta. {30-50% destroyed}, was too powerful to stop, fire experts say
Weather Network | Jul. 26, 2024
A perfectly terrible combination of conditions created a wall of fire 100 metres tall...The wind, which blew as fast as 100 kilometres per hour, was relentless enough to push the flames five kilometres along the parched landscape in less than an hour at one point on Wednesday
... the blaze became so large, it created its own thunderstorm — a phenomenon that also drove the Horse River wildfire on its destructive path into Fort McMurray in 2016.
In these conditions, the airborne embers the fire is spewing out can travel a couple of kilometres, Flannigan said. It leaves natural firebreaks like rivers, lakes and roads futile to stop the spread...
...Parks Canada says firefighters remaining in Jasper have so far protected the hospital, schools, activity centre and wastewater treatment plant
...The fire should renew a conversation about the work all forested Canadian communities could be doing to prevent nearby blazes from becoming so threatening, he said. Those mitigations include thinning the surrounding forest, removing dead wood, constructing buildings with less flammable materials and considering more controlled burns and traditional Indigenous fire practices.
Fires that stay lower to the ground and are less intense are easier for firefighters to knock down and make measures such as protective sprinklers placed around properties more likely to be effective...
https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/news/weather/severe/blaze-that-damaged-jasp...
_______________________________
‘We are a skeleton crew out here’: UCP {United Conservative Party} cuts led to disastrous Alberta wildfire situation
Trina Moyles | May 10, 2023
Alberta wildfire fighters place much of the blame for the current situation on the shoulders of the UCP government, which has gutted firefighter programs and failed to retain staff...
https://thenarwhal.ca/alberta-wildfire-ucp-cuts/
74margd
How Soon Might the Atlantic Ocean Break? Two Sibling Scientists Found an Answer—and Shook the World
Sandra Upson | Jul 25, 2024
A gigantic, weather-defining current system could be headed to collapse. Peter and Susanne Ditlevsen had a simple yet controversial question: How much time might we have left to save it?
...By some calculations, the AMOC’s flow has weakened by 15 percent since the middle of the 20th century. Looking back further, it is the weakest it has been in a millennium.
...the climate changes not only gradually but also “in great leaps,” as the late climate scientist Wallace Broecker wrote in 1987.
...2057. The year when the AMOC might tip. ... But that’s just the middle point: In 95 percent of the model’s simulations, the AMOC tipped sometime between 2025 and 2095....controversial...
... say the AMOC crosses its tipping point and starts heading to collapse. Researchers have taken a stab at modeling what that future might look like.
First, the system would slow and slow until—well, nobody knows. It could be headed to a full stop. That would take about a century. Or it might settle into a much weaker flow. Both are bad. The AMOC transports a staggering amount of energy. Like a million nuclear power plants. It is such a core element of the Earth system that its collapse would radically alter regional weather patterns, the water cycle, the ability of every country to provide food for its inhabitants.
Below the surface of the ocean, the invisible waterfalls near Iceland and Greenland would peter out. That’s horrendous for creatures in the deep who need the oxygen the AMOC delivers to survive. Widespread die-off of marine life: likely. Shutting off the current would also cause the ocean’s surface to smooth out. The flattened water level will be higher than it is now, which will mean almost a meter of sea level rise along the US northeast coast. (That’s in addition to the sea level rise from melting glaciers.)
Without the big heat delivery that softens its winters, Europe would end up with much more intense seasons, according to a 2022 report. A lot more snow. Much less rain. In the post-tipping decades, many European cities might end up colder by 5 to 15 degrees Celsius. In Bergen, Norway, the temps could drop a whopping 35 degrees Celsius. Sea ice in winter might extend all the way down to the southern UK. The summers, meanwhile: hotter and drier.
An AMOC shutdown would clobber the food system. The fraction of land suitable for growing wheat and maize—staple crops worldwide—would drop by roughly half. In an analysis of how an AMOC collapse would affect agriculture in the UK, the authors wrote there would be “a nearly complete cessation” of arable farming. Goodbye oats, barley, wheat. A massive irrigation project could salvage the land at a cost of roughly $1 billion a year, more than 10 times the yearly profit from the crops. Food prices would spike. Further north, in places like Norway and Sweden, food production would also plummet. Those countries would have to rely heavily on imports. But perhaps not from the usual sources. The powerhouses of Ukraine, Poland, and Bulgaria—Europe’s breadbaskets—would also be dealing with less rain, colder weather, and severe losses of income from the crash of their ag industry.
The worst effects, though, would be likely to hit the tropics. The Intertropical Convergence Zone is the swath of atmosphere around the equator—centered at about 6 degrees north—with little wind and lots of rain. Sailors called it the doldrums. Season by season, that zone’s band of clouds migrates north or south, and those movements bring either extended dry periods or months of rain. An AMOC collapse would push the doldrums southward. In the Amazon, the altered Intertropical Zone could cause the wet and dry seasons to flip to the opposite times of year. The plants, insects, fungi, and mammals below the canopy would be forced to adapt at warp speed—or die off. Not to mention the trees themselves, which, in addition to supporting an intricate ecosystem, absorb tons of carbon from the atmosphere. The Amazon, of course, is being logged and overheated to its own tipping point, and an AMOC shutoff could be the final shove.
But that, one might argue, is the least of it. Research on these projections is scant, but some studies say if the rain band scoots south, then India, East Asia, and West Africa would lose much or all of their monsoon seasons. Two-thirds of Earth’s population depends on monsoon rain, in large part to grow their crops. These changes would happen over only a few growing seasons rather than over generations, giving little time to adapt. In the precarious Sahel region in Africa, subsistence farmers might find that sorghum, an essential, nutrient-rich cereal, becomes nearly impossible to grow. Tens of millions of people might need to migrate to survive.
On the other hand, Australia might enjoy a little more rain and crank out a few more loaves of bread per year...
https://www.wired.com/story/amoc-collapse-atlantic-ocean/
Sandra Upson | Jul 25, 2024
A gigantic, weather-defining current system could be headed to collapse. Peter and Susanne Ditlevsen had a simple yet controversial question: How much time might we have left to save it?
...By some calculations, the AMOC’s flow has weakened by 15 percent since the middle of the 20th century. Looking back further, it is the weakest it has been in a millennium.
...the climate changes not only gradually but also “in great leaps,” as the late climate scientist Wallace Broecker wrote in 1987.
...2057. The year when the AMOC might tip. ... But that’s just the middle point: In 95 percent of the model’s simulations, the AMOC tipped sometime between 2025 and 2095....controversial...
... say the AMOC crosses its tipping point and starts heading to collapse. Researchers have taken a stab at modeling what that future might look like.
First, the system would slow and slow until—well, nobody knows. It could be headed to a full stop. That would take about a century. Or it might settle into a much weaker flow. Both are bad. The AMOC transports a staggering amount of energy. Like a million nuclear power plants. It is such a core element of the Earth system that its collapse would radically alter regional weather patterns, the water cycle, the ability of every country to provide food for its inhabitants.
Below the surface of the ocean, the invisible waterfalls near Iceland and Greenland would peter out. That’s horrendous for creatures in the deep who need the oxygen the AMOC delivers to survive. Widespread die-off of marine life: likely. Shutting off the current would also cause the ocean’s surface to smooth out. The flattened water level will be higher than it is now, which will mean almost a meter of sea level rise along the US northeast coast. (That’s in addition to the sea level rise from melting glaciers.)
Without the big heat delivery that softens its winters, Europe would end up with much more intense seasons, according to a 2022 report. A lot more snow. Much less rain. In the post-tipping decades, many European cities might end up colder by 5 to 15 degrees Celsius. In Bergen, Norway, the temps could drop a whopping 35 degrees Celsius. Sea ice in winter might extend all the way down to the southern UK. The summers, meanwhile: hotter and drier.
An AMOC shutdown would clobber the food system. The fraction of land suitable for growing wheat and maize—staple crops worldwide—would drop by roughly half. In an analysis of how an AMOC collapse would affect agriculture in the UK, the authors wrote there would be “a nearly complete cessation” of arable farming. Goodbye oats, barley, wheat. A massive irrigation project could salvage the land at a cost of roughly $1 billion a year, more than 10 times the yearly profit from the crops. Food prices would spike. Further north, in places like Norway and Sweden, food production would also plummet. Those countries would have to rely heavily on imports. But perhaps not from the usual sources. The powerhouses of Ukraine, Poland, and Bulgaria—Europe’s breadbaskets—would also be dealing with less rain, colder weather, and severe losses of income from the crash of their ag industry.
The worst effects, though, would be likely to hit the tropics. The Intertropical Convergence Zone is the swath of atmosphere around the equator—centered at about 6 degrees north—with little wind and lots of rain. Sailors called it the doldrums. Season by season, that zone’s band of clouds migrates north or south, and those movements bring either extended dry periods or months of rain. An AMOC collapse would push the doldrums southward. In the Amazon, the altered Intertropical Zone could cause the wet and dry seasons to flip to the opposite times of year. The plants, insects, fungi, and mammals below the canopy would be forced to adapt at warp speed—or die off. Not to mention the trees themselves, which, in addition to supporting an intricate ecosystem, absorb tons of carbon from the atmosphere. The Amazon, of course, is being logged and overheated to its own tipping point, and an AMOC shutoff could be the final shove.
But that, one might argue, is the least of it. Research on these projections is scant, but some studies say if the rain band scoots south, then India, East Asia, and West Africa would lose much or all of their monsoon seasons. Two-thirds of Earth’s population depends on monsoon rain, in large part to grow their crops. These changes would happen over only a few growing seasons rather than over generations, giving little time to adapt. In the precarious Sahel region in Africa, subsistence farmers might find that sorghum, an essential, nutrient-rich cereal, becomes nearly impossible to grow. Tens of millions of people might need to migrate to survive.
On the other hand, Australia might enjoy a little more rain and crank out a few more loaves of bread per year...
https://www.wired.com/story/amoc-collapse-atlantic-ocean/
75margd
A start, but not nearly enough given the path we are on...
Joe Biden’s Enormous, Contradictory, and Fragile Climate Legacy
Umair Irfan | 25 July 2024
Trump could stall Biden’s progress if elected, but the shift to clean energy is unstoppable.
...Changing ... course took decades of persistent effort from scientists, engineers, leaders, and activists. Joe Biden deserves some credit for helping turn the rudder.
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2024/07/joe-biden-climate-legacy-donald-tru...
Joe Biden’s Enormous, Contradictory, and Fragile Climate Legacy
Umair Irfan | 25 July 2024
Trump could stall Biden’s progress if elected, but the shift to clean energy is unstoppable.
...Changing ... course took decades of persistent effort from scientists, engineers, leaders, and activists. Joe Biden deserves some credit for helping turn the rudder.
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2024/07/joe-biden-climate-legacy-donald-tru...
76margd
Model Behavior: Visualizing Global Carbon Dioxide (1:51)
NASA Goddard | Jul 23, 2024
This global map of carbon dioxide was created using a model called GEOS, short for the Goddard Earth Observing System. GEOS is a high-resolution weather reanalysis model, powered by supercomputers, that is used to represent what was happening in the atmosphere — including storm systems, cloud formations, and other natural events. This model pulls in billions of data points from ground observations and satellite instruments – and has a resolution is more than 100 times greater than your typical weather model.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zZ-lMDtiI-k
----------------------------------------
NOAA: What we're looking at
This global map shows concentrations of carbon dioxide as the gas moved through Earth’s atmosphere from January through March 2020, driven by wind patterns and atmospheric circulation.
Because of the model’s high resolution, you can zoom in and see carbon dioxide emissions rising from power plants, fires, and cities, then spreading across continents and oceans.
https://science.nasa.gov/earth/watch-carbon-dioxide-move-through-earths-atmosphe...
NASA Goddard | Jul 23, 2024
This global map of carbon dioxide was created using a model called GEOS, short for the Goddard Earth Observing System. GEOS is a high-resolution weather reanalysis model, powered by supercomputers, that is used to represent what was happening in the atmosphere — including storm systems, cloud formations, and other natural events. This model pulls in billions of data points from ground observations and satellite instruments – and has a resolution is more than 100 times greater than your typical weather model.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zZ-lMDtiI-k
----------------------------------------
NOAA: What we're looking at
This global map shows concentrations of carbon dioxide as the gas moved through Earth’s atmosphere from January through March 2020, driven by wind patterns and atmospheric circulation.
Because of the model’s high resolution, you can zoom in and see carbon dioxide emissions rising from power plants, fires, and cities, then spreading across continents and oceans.
https://science.nasa.gov/earth/watch-carbon-dioxide-move-through-earths-atmosphe...
77margd
Mysterious 'New El Niño' Was Just Discovered South of The Equator
Environment
David Nield | 29 July 2024
...Dubbed the 'new El Niño', the Southern Hemisphere Circumpolar Wavenumber-4 Pattern emerges further south in the southwestern subtropical Pacific towards Australia and New Zealand. While the region that controls these weather shifts is relatively small, it can also trigger climate shifts across the whole of the Southern Hemisphere.
... it's going to be vital in understanding climate change in the years ahead.
"This discovery is like finding a new switch in Earth's climate," says meteorologist Balaji Senapati from the University of Reading in the UK...
https://www.sciencealert.com/mysterious-new-el-nio-was-just-discovered-south-of-...
-----------------------------
Balaji Senapati et al. 2024. Southern Hemisphere Circumpolar Wavenumber-4 Pattern Simulated in SINTEX-F2 Coupled Model. JGR Oceans Volume129, Issue7, July 2024. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JC020801 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023JC020801
Plain Language Summary
In the subtropical-midlatitude Southern Hemisphere, we often observe year-to-year fluctuations in sea surface temperature (SST) linked to a specific pattern known as wavenumber-4 (W4). This study represents the first successful attempt to simulate this temperature pattern using a climate emulator called SINTEX-F2, allowing us to uncover its physical processes. Our research reveals that SST variations in the southwestern subtropical Pacific (SWSP) play a pivotal role in generating the W4 pattern in the atmosphere, subsequently influencing SST during austral summer. Interestingly, this pattern is almost independent of tropical SST variability. The process starts with heating in the SWSP, causing atmospheric disturbances. This leads to an undulation in mid-latitude atmospheric flow, evolving into a well-established global Rossby wave with four positive (negative) loading centers, forming a W4 pattern. This atmospheric wave interacts with the ocean's surface, leading to heat exchange between the atmosphere and the upper ocean. In turn, it influences the depth of the mixed layer in the upper ocean, which receives solar energy. When solar energy penetrates into a shallower (deeper) mixed layer, it warms (cools) the mixed layer effectively, resulting in higher (lower) SSTs. Afterwards, the energy exchange between the mixed layer and the deep ocean contributes to the decay of the SST pattern.
Environment
David Nield | 29 July 2024
...Dubbed the 'new El Niño', the Southern Hemisphere Circumpolar Wavenumber-4 Pattern emerges further south in the southwestern subtropical Pacific towards Australia and New Zealand. While the region that controls these weather shifts is relatively small, it can also trigger climate shifts across the whole of the Southern Hemisphere.
... it's going to be vital in understanding climate change in the years ahead.
"This discovery is like finding a new switch in Earth's climate," says meteorologist Balaji Senapati from the University of Reading in the UK...
https://www.sciencealert.com/mysterious-new-el-nio-was-just-discovered-south-of-...
-----------------------------
Balaji Senapati et al. 2024. Southern Hemisphere Circumpolar Wavenumber-4 Pattern Simulated in SINTEX-F2 Coupled Model. JGR Oceans Volume129, Issue7, July 2024. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JC020801 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023JC020801
Plain Language Summary
In the subtropical-midlatitude Southern Hemisphere, we often observe year-to-year fluctuations in sea surface temperature (SST) linked to a specific pattern known as wavenumber-4 (W4). This study represents the first successful attempt to simulate this temperature pattern using a climate emulator called SINTEX-F2, allowing us to uncover its physical processes. Our research reveals that SST variations in the southwestern subtropical Pacific (SWSP) play a pivotal role in generating the W4 pattern in the atmosphere, subsequently influencing SST during austral summer. Interestingly, this pattern is almost independent of tropical SST variability. The process starts with heating in the SWSP, causing atmospheric disturbances. This leads to an undulation in mid-latitude atmospheric flow, evolving into a well-established global Rossby wave with four positive (negative) loading centers, forming a W4 pattern. This atmospheric wave interacts with the ocean's surface, leading to heat exchange between the atmosphere and the upper ocean. In turn, it influences the depth of the mixed layer in the upper ocean, which receives solar energy. When solar energy penetrates into a shallower (deeper) mixed layer, it warms (cools) the mixed layer effectively, resulting in higher (lower) SSTs. Afterwards, the energy exchange between the mixed layer and the deep ocean contributes to the decay of the SST pattern.
78margd
One in 11 people went hungry last year. Climate change is a big reason why.
Ayurella Horn-Muller |29 July 2024
One in 11 people worldwide went hungry last year, while one in three struggled to afford a healthy diet... As global crises continue to deepen, issues like hunger, food insecurity, and malnutrition no longer stand alone as isolated benchmarks of public health. In the eyes of the intergovernmental organizations and humanitarian institutions tracking these challenges, access to food is increasingly entangled with the impacts of a warming world.
... This insecurity remains most acute in low-income nations, where 71.5 percent of residents struggled to buy enough nutritious food — compared to just 6.3 percent in wealthy countries.
...Climate change is second only to conflict in having the greatest impact on global hunger, food insecurity, and malnutrition... That’s because planetary warming does more than disrupt food production and supply chains through extreme weather events like droughts. It promotes the spread of diseases and pests, which affects livestock and crop yields. And it increasingly causes people to migrate as they flee areas ravaged by rising seas and devastating storms, which, in turn, can fuel conflict that then drives more migration in a vicious cycle...
https://grist.org/food-and-agriculture/one-in-11-people-went-hungry-last-year-cl...
Ayurella Horn-Muller |29 July 2024
One in 11 people worldwide went hungry last year, while one in three struggled to afford a healthy diet... As global crises continue to deepen, issues like hunger, food insecurity, and malnutrition no longer stand alone as isolated benchmarks of public health. In the eyes of the intergovernmental organizations and humanitarian institutions tracking these challenges, access to food is increasingly entangled with the impacts of a warming world.
... This insecurity remains most acute in low-income nations, where 71.5 percent of residents struggled to buy enough nutritious food — compared to just 6.3 percent in wealthy countries.
...Climate change is second only to conflict in having the greatest impact on global hunger, food insecurity, and malnutrition... That’s because planetary warming does more than disrupt food production and supply chains through extreme weather events like droughts. It promotes the spread of diseases and pests, which affects livestock and crop yields. And it increasingly causes people to migrate as they flee areas ravaged by rising seas and devastating storms, which, in turn, can fuel conflict that then drives more migration in a vicious cycle...
https://grist.org/food-and-agriculture/one-in-11-people-went-hungry-last-year-cl...
79margd
World Meteorological Organization WMO | 4:31 AM · Jul 30, 2024:
🌍 This map shows that at least ten countries have reported more than 50°C temperatures in the past year.
🌡️Heat directly impacts people and amplifies the risks of wildfires, droughts, water shortages, and food insecurity.
🔗 https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/un-secretary-general-issues-call-action-extrem...
Map (https://x.com/WMO/status/1818202683364245937/photo/1)
🌍 This map shows that at least ten countries have reported more than 50°C temperatures in the past year.
🌡️Heat directly impacts people and amplifies the risks of wildfires, droughts, water shortages, and food insecurity.
🔗 https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/un-secretary-general-issues-call-action-extrem...
Map (https://x.com/WMO/status/1818202683364245937/photo/1)
80margd
Greenpeace USA greenpeaceusa | 8:00 AM · Aug 1, 2024 {X}
We’re being sued by Big Oil @EnergyTransfer for $300 million. It’s an abusive lawsuit designed to end Greenpeace’s 50-year legacy of environmental activism. But it’s not just a threat to our existence. Learn more:
1:527 (https://x.com/greenpeaceusa/status/1818980244638077432, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgXj3WdYGCo)
_______________________________
Submission on the Challenges and Threats Facing Climate Defenders
Human Rights Watch | June 1, 2021
To the UN Special Rapporteur on the Rights to Freedom of Peaceful Assembly and of Association
Challenges of Climate Defenders to Exercising Assembly and Association Rights
- Killings, Intimidation, Discrimination, Disappearances, and Legal Harassment
- Restrictions of Peaceful Assembly and Association Rights
- False Accusations of “Ecoterrorism,” Extremism, and “Threats to National Security”
Recommendations for States
Recommendations for Businesses
Recommendations for Multilateral Institutions
https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/06/01/submission-challenges-and-threats-facing-cli...
We’re being sued by Big Oil @EnergyTransfer for $300 million. It’s an abusive lawsuit designed to end Greenpeace’s 50-year legacy of environmental activism. But it’s not just a threat to our existence. Learn more:
1:527 (https://x.com/greenpeaceusa/status/1818980244638077432, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgXj3WdYGCo)
_______________________________
Submission on the Challenges and Threats Facing Climate Defenders
Human Rights Watch | June 1, 2021
To the UN Special Rapporteur on the Rights to Freedom of Peaceful Assembly and of Association
Challenges of Climate Defenders to Exercising Assembly and Association Rights
- Killings, Intimidation, Discrimination, Disappearances, and Legal Harassment
- Restrictions of Peaceful Assembly and Association Rights
- False Accusations of “Ecoterrorism,” Extremism, and “Threats to National Security”
Recommendations for States
Recommendations for Businesses
Recommendations for Multilateral Institutions
https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/06/01/submission-challenges-and-threats-facing-cli...
81margd
NOAA Satellites - Public Affairs @NOAASatellitePA | 11:04 AM · Aug 8, 2024:
.@NOAA: Through the first seven months of 2024, the U.S. has endured 19 separate billion-dollar disasters -- the 2nd highest amount on record by this point in a year. Get the latest U.S. July #climate report: http://bit.ly/3LTQTOX #StateofClimate
Map (https://x.com/NOAASatellitePA/status/1821563238670012541/photo/1)
.@NOAA: Through the first seven months of 2024, the U.S. has endured 19 separate billion-dollar disasters -- the 2nd highest amount on record by this point in a year. Get the latest U.S. July #climate report: http://bit.ly/3LTQTOX #StateofClimate
Map (https://x.com/NOAASatellitePA/status/1821563238670012541/photo/1)
82margd
Climate change deniers make up nearly a quarter of US Congress
Oliver Milman and Dharna Noor | Mon 5 Aug 2024
Climate denialists – 23 in Senate and 100 in House – are all Republicans and make US an outlier internationally...
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/aug/05/climate-change-denial-co...
Oliver Milman and Dharna Noor | Mon 5 Aug 2024
Climate denialists – 23 in Senate and 100 in House – are all Republicans and make US an outlier internationally...
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/aug/05/climate-change-denial-co...
83margd
Project 2025 plan calls for demolition of NOAA and National Weather Service
Hayley Smith | July 28, 2024
Among its many sweeping calls for change in American government, a conservative platform document known as Project 2025 urges the demolition of some of the nation’s most dependable resources for tracking weather, combating climate change and protecting the public from environmental hazards.
“Break up NOAA,” the document says, referring to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and its six main offices, including the 154-year-old National Weather Service.
“Together, these form a colossal operation that has become one of the main drivers of the climate change alarm industry and, as such, is harmful to future U.S. prosperity,” the document says...
https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2024-07-28/project-2025-targets-noaa-a...
Hayley Smith | July 28, 2024
Among its many sweeping calls for change in American government, a conservative platform document known as Project 2025 urges the demolition of some of the nation’s most dependable resources for tracking weather, combating climate change and protecting the public from environmental hazards.
“Break up NOAA,” the document says, referring to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and its six main offices, including the 154-year-old National Weather Service.
“Together, these form a colossal operation that has become one of the main drivers of the climate change alarm industry and, as such, is harmful to future U.S. prosperity,” the document says...
https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2024-07-28/project-2025-targets-noaa-a...
84bnielsen
Ah, "the climate change alarm industry". Those nasty folks who try to make us stop burning fossils? If such a thing existed, I'd support it.
85margd
>84 bnielsen: Me, too! Donating to a few pols up for election, who while not alarmed enough, at least are not dragging knuckles on the ground...
Even from our summer perch on the St Lawrence River, we're affected:
Warm waters = low ice = lake-effect snow.
Smoke from wildfires waft in. (Last year was wild.)
Debby dumping water from Gulf of Mexico & the Atlantic Ocean.
Etc...
Scary that shortly we'll look back on 2024 as the good ol' days.
Even from our summer perch on the St Lawrence River, we're affected:
Warm waters = low ice = lake-effect snow.
Smoke from wildfires waft in. (Last year was wild.)
Debby dumping water from Gulf of Mexico & the Atlantic Ocean.
Etc...
Scary that shortly we'll look back on 2024 as the good ol' days.
86bnielsen
>84 bnielsen: I once told a sceptic in my own circles that Arrhenius had this figured out in 1896 and we didn't listen then.
Don't worry: the planet will survive. But some of the geological processes will speed up for a while.
Don't worry: the planet will survive. But some of the geological processes will speed up for a while.
87margd
>86 bnielsen: I don't know about our species, but I'm pretty sure we'll be decimated and our society won't survive at this rate.
Earth as a planet will survive, but it's not inconceivable that it could morph into an environment inconducive to life as we know it ... Mars and other rocky planets ... Charlton Heston in last bit of Planet of the Apes. :/
(I AM a doomer, aren't I? I just don't see anything in the science or our leaders to think otherwise.)
Earth as a planet will survive, but it's not inconceivable that it could morph into an environment inconducive to life as we know it ... Mars and other rocky planets ... Charlton Heston in last bit of Planet of the Apes. :/
(I AM a doomer, aren't I? I just don't see anything in the science or our leaders to think otherwise.)
88kiparsky
>87 margd: An uninhabitable earth is certainly a plausible scenario, though as I understand it it's not one of the more likely ones. However, it's clear that the longer we go on without significant change to our CO2 output, the harder it is to imagine this planet supporting a human population in the billions.
Basically, population is going to go down, one way or another. If we, as a species, can choose to reduce population, then it's possible we can preserve some aspects of modern society. If we wait for a population crash, it is a much uglier scenario.
"Doomer" doesn't seem unreasonable, given the data.
Basically, population is going to go down, one way or another. If we, as a species, can choose to reduce population, then it's possible we can preserve some aspects of modern society. If we wait for a population crash, it is a much uglier scenario.
"Doomer" doesn't seem unreasonable, given the data.
89margd
‘Massive disinformation campaign’ is slowing global transition to green energy
Fiona Harvey | 8 Aug 2024
UN says a global ‘backlash’ against climate action is being stoked by fossil fuel companies...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/aug/08/fossil-fuel-industry...
Fiona Harvey | 8 Aug 2024
UN says a global ‘backlash’ against climate action is being stoked by fossil fuel companies...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/aug/08/fossil-fuel-industry...
90margd
These cities will be too hot for the Olympics by 2050
Lou Robinson and Angela Dewan | August 12, 2024
...By 2050 nearly half of previous Summer Olympic hosts could exceed safe temperatures...
The super-humid states around the Gulf of Mexico, from Florida to the eastern half of Texas, would be well off the table. The Games held in 1996 in Atlanta simply wouldn’t be possible in 2050.
Much of eastern China, including Beijing and Shanghai, would be well above the limit, as would Hong Kong and huge swaths of Southeast Asia.
Suggestions to change the timing of the Summer Olympics so it doesn’t coincide with peak heat are growing louder, and it has been done before. Sydney, which swelters in the summer, held the 2000 Games in September and October during the Southern Hemisphere’s spring. Brazil’s Rio de Janeiro held the 2016 Games in August, when its winter temperatures average a comfortable 70 degrees or so.
Cities in northwest Europe — like London, Oslo and Stockholm — may become more attractive for the event, while Mediterranean cities — including Palermo in Sicily and Spain’s Seville — are mostly over the threshold. High-elevation South American cities could also become more appealing as global temperatures warm...
https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/11/climate/olympics-cities-extreme-heat/index.html
Lou Robinson and Angela Dewan | August 12, 2024
...By 2050 nearly half of previous Summer Olympic hosts could exceed safe temperatures...
The super-humid states around the Gulf of Mexico, from Florida to the eastern half of Texas, would be well off the table. The Games held in 1996 in Atlanta simply wouldn’t be possible in 2050.
Much of eastern China, including Beijing and Shanghai, would be well above the limit, as would Hong Kong and huge swaths of Southeast Asia.
Suggestions to change the timing of the Summer Olympics so it doesn’t coincide with peak heat are growing louder, and it has been done before. Sydney, which swelters in the summer, held the 2000 Games in September and October during the Southern Hemisphere’s spring. Brazil’s Rio de Janeiro held the 2016 Games in August, when its winter temperatures average a comfortable 70 degrees or so.
Cities in northwest Europe — like London, Oslo and Stockholm — may become more attractive for the event, while Mediterranean cities — including Palermo in Sicily and Spain’s Seville — are mostly over the threshold. High-elevation South American cities could also become more appealing as global temperatures warm...
https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/11/climate/olympics-cities-extreme-heat/index.html
91margd
Heat caused nearly 50,000 deaths in Europe last year: study
zc/jsi (dpa, Reuters, AFP) | 12 Aug 2024
...The report also found that adaptations like healthcare improvements, early warning systems, better communication and progress in occupational health all reduced the heat mortality rate. Without these adaptations, the number of deaths would have been 80% higher...
https://www.dw.com/en/heat-caused-nearly-50000-deaths-in-europe-last-year-study/...
----------------------------------------
Elisa Gallo et al. 2024. Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2023 and the role of adaptation in protecting health (Brief Communication). Nature Medicine (12 August 2024) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-024-03186-1
Abstract
... Here we applied epidemiological models to temperature and mortality records in 823 contiguous regions from 35 countries to estimate sex- and age-specific heat-related mortality in Europe during 2023 and to quantify the mortality burden avoided by societal adaptation to rising temperatures since the year 2000. We estimated 47,690 ... heat-related deaths in 2023, the second highest mortality burden during the study period 2015–2023, only surpassed by 2022. We also estimated that the heat-related mortality burden would have been +80.0% higher in absence of present-century adaptation, especially in the elderly (+100.7% in people aged 80+ years). Our results highlight the importance of historical and ongoing adaptations in saving lives during recent summers and the urgency for more effective strategies to further reduce the mortality burden of forthcoming hotter summers.
zc/jsi (dpa, Reuters, AFP) | 12 Aug 2024
...The report also found that adaptations like healthcare improvements, early warning systems, better communication and progress in occupational health all reduced the heat mortality rate. Without these adaptations, the number of deaths would have been 80% higher...
https://www.dw.com/en/heat-caused-nearly-50000-deaths-in-europe-last-year-study/...
----------------------------------------
Elisa Gallo et al. 2024. Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2023 and the role of adaptation in protecting health (Brief Communication). Nature Medicine (12 August 2024) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-024-03186-1
Abstract
... Here we applied epidemiological models to temperature and mortality records in 823 contiguous regions from 35 countries to estimate sex- and age-specific heat-related mortality in Europe during 2023 and to quantify the mortality burden avoided by societal adaptation to rising temperatures since the year 2000. We estimated 47,690 ... heat-related deaths in 2023, the second highest mortality burden during the study period 2015–2023, only surpassed by 2022. We also estimated that the heat-related mortality burden would have been +80.0% higher in absence of present-century adaptation, especially in the elderly (+100.7% in people aged 80+ years). Our results highlight the importance of historical and ongoing adaptations in saving lives during recent summers and the urgency for more effective strategies to further reduce the mortality burden of forthcoming hotter summers.
92margd
‘The dumbest climate conversation of all time’: experts on the Musk-Trump interview
Oliver Milman | 13 Aug 2024
Trump talked about ‘nuclear warming’ while Musk said the only reason to quit fossil fuels is that their supply is finite
Donald Trump and Elon Musk both made discursive, often fact-free assertions about global heating, including that rising sea levels would create “more oceanfront property” ...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/aug/13/trump-musk-x-climate
Oliver Milman | 13 Aug 2024
Trump talked about ‘nuclear warming’ while Musk said the only reason to quit fossil fuels is that their supply is finite
Donald Trump and Elon Musk both made discursive, often fact-free assertions about global heating, including that rising sea levels would create “more oceanfront property” ...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/aug/13/trump-musk-x-climate
93margd
Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf | 8:51 PM · Aug 15, 2024 (X):
WFLA-TV (Tampa Bay) Chief Meteorologist and Climate Specialist. BS Atmospheric Sciences Cornell U. MA Climate Columbia U. Past CBS News NY and Miami, Tampa, WPB
In today’s Climate Classroom I’m honored to have @rahmstorf
on the show to discuss the AMOC, how close this vital circulation is to collapse, and what the huge implications would be. The show can be seen here or listened to on Spotify or Apple Podcasts
World’s most important ocean current in danger of collapse
Jeff Berardelli | Aug 1, 2024
...So what happens if 25% of the northward global transport of heat abruptly stops? The impact would be huge – exactly how huge is difficult to know considering this has never happened before in recent history. But there are some impacts that seem clear.
Because of the lack of warm water being transported north, Northern Europe is likely to see a dramatic drop in temperatures, perhaps several degrees or more on average, which could wreak havoc with agriculture.
Sea level rise along the U.S. East Coast would accelerate, adding to an already faster-than-average pace of increase, and weather patterns in the Atlantic would be thrown off-kilter.
Rain patterns in the Amazon and the Indian Monsoon, both incredibly important climate systems, could experience large shifts, impacting both the natural environments and also the people who rely on them.
Lastly, with more heat being stored in the tropical waters, ocean temperatures in that zone would inevitably rise and storm systems would respond to those changes, in ways science is just starting to scratch the surface of.
Bottom line: Impacts would be life-changing for humanity and it’s not something we should take a chance on.
https://wfla.com/weather/climate-classroom/worlds-most-important-ocean-current-i...
0:38 (https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/1824247602285527158)
WFLA-TV (Tampa Bay) Chief Meteorologist and Climate Specialist. BS Atmospheric Sciences Cornell U. MA Climate Columbia U. Past CBS News NY and Miami, Tampa, WPB
In today’s Climate Classroom I’m honored to have @rahmstorf
on the show to discuss the AMOC, how close this vital circulation is to collapse, and what the huge implications would be. The show can be seen here or listened to on Spotify or Apple Podcasts
World’s most important ocean current in danger of collapse
Jeff Berardelli | Aug 1, 2024
...So what happens if 25% of the northward global transport of heat abruptly stops? The impact would be huge – exactly how huge is difficult to know considering this has never happened before in recent history. But there are some impacts that seem clear.
Because of the lack of warm water being transported north, Northern Europe is likely to see a dramatic drop in temperatures, perhaps several degrees or more on average, which could wreak havoc with agriculture.
Sea level rise along the U.S. East Coast would accelerate, adding to an already faster-than-average pace of increase, and weather patterns in the Atlantic would be thrown off-kilter.
Rain patterns in the Amazon and the Indian Monsoon, both incredibly important climate systems, could experience large shifts, impacting both the natural environments and also the people who rely on them.
Lastly, with more heat being stored in the tropical waters, ocean temperatures in that zone would inevitably rise and storm systems would respond to those changes, in ways science is just starting to scratch the surface of.
Bottom line: Impacts would be life-changing for humanity and it’s not something we should take a chance on.
https://wfla.com/weather/climate-classroom/worlds-most-important-ocean-current-i...
0:38 (https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/1824247602285527158)
94margd
Revealed: Shell oil non-profit donated to anti-climate groups behind Project 2025
Geoff Dembicki | 15 Aug 2024
Foundation says it ‘does not endorse any organizations’ while funneling hundreds of thousands to rightwing causes...
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/aug/15/shell-oil-project-2025-c...
Geoff Dembicki | 15 Aug 2024
Foundation says it ‘does not endorse any organizations’ while funneling hundreds of thousands to rightwing causes...
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/aug/15/shell-oil-project-2025-c...
95margd
Floating homes are not a solution for those of modest means, who are already being displaced by the wealthy in places like Miami.
COMMENT: Can floating homes make coastal communities resilient to climate risks?
Idowu Ajibade and Sameer H. Shah | 19 August 2024
Building sustainable settlements on the water is a feasible option for climate adaptation, as long as people and ecosystems are protected...
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-02679-w
COMMENT: Can floating homes make coastal communities resilient to climate risks?
Idowu Ajibade and Sameer H. Shah | 19 August 2024
Building sustainable settlements on the water is a feasible option for climate adaptation, as long as people and ecosystems are protected...
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-02679-w
96margd
Research shows that what you call climate change doesn’t matter much
Kate Yoder | Aug 19, 2024
People don't need "climate emergency" or "global boiling" to make them worried. They're already worried...
https://grist.org/language/climate-change-terminology-crisis-emergency-study/
Kate Yoder | Aug 19, 2024
People don't need "climate emergency" or "global boiling" to make them worried. They're already worried...
https://grist.org/language/climate-change-terminology-crisis-emergency-study/
97margd
Peter Dynes @PGDynes | 9:31 AM · Aug 18, 2024 {X}:
MD http://MEER.org - building climate resilient Adaptation/Mitigation through SRT (surface reflection technology)
🌡️ The Mediterranean Sea is hot, hot, hot! Yesterday’s average surface temp was a staggering 2.5°C above the 1991-2020 average. 🐠🌊 Marine life is under serious stress at these rising temperatures. How much longer can they survive?
Graph, temperatures Mediterranean sea surface 1980-2024 (https://x.com/PGDynes/status/1825163554627928128/photo/1)
MD http://MEER.org - building climate resilient Adaptation/Mitigation through SRT (surface reflection technology)
🌡️ The Mediterranean Sea is hot, hot, hot! Yesterday’s average surface temp was a staggering 2.5°C above the 1991-2020 average. 🐠🌊 Marine life is under serious stress at these rising temperatures. How much longer can they survive?
Graph, temperatures Mediterranean sea surface 1980-2024 (https://x.com/PGDynes/status/1825163554627928128/photo/1)
98margd
Mygawd...
Peter Dynes @PGDynes | 2:48 PM · Apr 27, 2024 {X}:
MD http://MEER.org - building climate resilient Adaptation/Mitigation through SRT (surface reflection technology)
Human survivability at its absolute limit in #Asia currently: #Thailand, #Myanmar, #Cambodia, #Vietnam, and the #Philippines. All hit temperatures above 40°C, with some places experiencing an incredible life-threatening heat index of up to 52°C.
Map (https://x.com/PGDynes/status/1784293521102406027/photo/1)
Peter Dynes @PGDynes | 2:48 PM · Apr 27, 2024 {X}:
MD http://MEER.org - building climate resilient Adaptation/Mitigation through SRT (surface reflection technology)
Human survivability at its absolute limit in #Asia currently: #Thailand, #Myanmar, #Cambodia, #Vietnam, and the #Philippines. All hit temperatures above 40°C, with some places experiencing an incredible life-threatening heat index of up to 52°C.
Map (https://x.com/PGDynes/status/1784293521102406027/photo/1)
99margd
Climate Dad @ClimateDad77 | 4:28 AM · Aug 20, 2024 {X}:
Billions of people paying attention to absolutely anything & everything except what’s happening right in front of their eyes.
Graph, temperature and CO2 since time of Christ (https://x.com/ClimateDad77/status/1825812252332544430/photo/1)
Billions of people paying attention to absolutely anything & everything except what’s happening right in front of their eyes.
Graph, temperature and CO2 since time of Christ (https://x.com/ClimateDad77/status/1825812252332544430/photo/1)
100margd
Want to fight climate change effectively? Here’s where to donate your money.
Sigal Samuel and Rachel DuRose | Nov 27, 2023
These are 11 of the most high-impact, cost-effective, evidence-based organizations. You may not have heard of them.
...Arguably the best move is to donate not to an individual charity, but to a fund — like the Founders Pledge Climate Change Fund or the Giving Green Fund. Experts at those groups pool together donor money and give it out to the charities they deem most effective, right when extra funding is most needed. That can mean making time-sensitive grants to promote the writing of an important report, or stepping in when a charity becomes acutely funding-constrained.
That said, some of us like to be able to decide exactly which charity our money ends up with — maybe because we have especially high confidence in one or two charities relative to the others — rather than letting experts split the cash over a range of different groups.
With that in mind, we’re listing below the individual organizations where your money is likely to have an exceptionally positive impact
1) Clean Air Task Force
2) Carbon180
3) TerraPraxis
4) Future Cleantech Architects
5) Good Energy Collective
6) Good Food Institute
7) Industrious Labs
8) DEPLOY/US
9) Energy for Growth Hub
10) Project InnerSpace
11) Opportunity Green
You can also donate to grassroots climate activism ...
Aside from donating, there are many other ways you can help ...
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/12/2/20976180/climate-change-best-charit...
Sigal Samuel and Rachel DuRose | Nov 27, 2023
These are 11 of the most high-impact, cost-effective, evidence-based organizations. You may not have heard of them.
...Arguably the best move is to donate not to an individual charity, but to a fund — like the Founders Pledge Climate Change Fund or the Giving Green Fund. Experts at those groups pool together donor money and give it out to the charities they deem most effective, right when extra funding is most needed. That can mean making time-sensitive grants to promote the writing of an important report, or stepping in when a charity becomes acutely funding-constrained.
That said, some of us like to be able to decide exactly which charity our money ends up with — maybe because we have especially high confidence in one or two charities relative to the others — rather than letting experts split the cash over a range of different groups.
With that in mind, we’re listing below the individual organizations where your money is likely to have an exceptionally positive impact
1) Clean Air Task Force
2) Carbon180
3) TerraPraxis
4) Future Cleantech Architects
5) Good Energy Collective
6) Good Food Institute
7) Industrious Labs
8) DEPLOY/US
9) Energy for Growth Hub
10) Project InnerSpace
11) Opportunity Green
You can also donate to grassroots climate activism ...
Aside from donating, there are many other ways you can help ...
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/12/2/20976180/climate-change-best-charit...
101margd
What Harris’ pick of Tim Walz means for climate, energy
Timothy Cama, Adam Aton | 08/06/2024
...Walz was first elected governor in 2018 and quickly started pushing priorities like aligning Minnesota’s car emissions standards with California’s and pumping new resources into the state’s water infrastructure.
But once Democrats took control of the state’s Legislature in 2022, he helped shepherd through a 100 percent clean electricity law, new subsidies for electric vehicles, permitting reform for clean energy and other major moves to cut the state’s greenhouse gas emissions.
Democrats hope Walz helps the campaign translate the party’s agenda to the white, rural voters that have steadily abandoned the party.
Walz — who for 12 years represented a rural, Republican-leaning district in southern Minnesota — has a history of pitching skeptical voters on climate action. After he voted for the 2009 Waxman-Markey cap-and-trade bill, he was one of the few rural Democrats to survive the midterm elections...
During the veepstakes, Walz emerged as the favorite of activists for both the content of his policies — like mandating zero-carbon electricity by 2040, one of the strongest in the country — and for passing them with a one-vote majority in the Legislature.
When Walz signed the clean electricity bill, he did it at the St. Paul Labor Center flanked by union members, climate activists and even a utility executive, Chris Clark of Xcel Energy.
“I have to tell you, when I hear people say ‘You’re moving too fast’ — we can’t move too fast when it comes to addressing climate change,” Walz said at that 2023 event. “This idea of waiting is a luxury we do not have, and Minnesotans do not have.”...
Walz has made “huge strides” on climate, {Sunrise Movement spokesperson Stevie O’Hanlon} said, by “pitching climate action as a way to make people’s everyday lives better, create good-paying green jobs, and invest in making communities stronger. That is a winning message, and one the Democratic ticket should put at the forefront of their agenda.”...
https://www.eenews.net/articles/what-harris-pick-of-tim-walz-means-for-climate-e...
Timothy Cama, Adam Aton | 08/06/2024
...Walz was first elected governor in 2018 and quickly started pushing priorities like aligning Minnesota’s car emissions standards with California’s and pumping new resources into the state’s water infrastructure.
But once Democrats took control of the state’s Legislature in 2022, he helped shepherd through a 100 percent clean electricity law, new subsidies for electric vehicles, permitting reform for clean energy and other major moves to cut the state’s greenhouse gas emissions.
Democrats hope Walz helps the campaign translate the party’s agenda to the white, rural voters that have steadily abandoned the party.
Walz — who for 12 years represented a rural, Republican-leaning district in southern Minnesota — has a history of pitching skeptical voters on climate action. After he voted for the 2009 Waxman-Markey cap-and-trade bill, he was one of the few rural Democrats to survive the midterm elections...
During the veepstakes, Walz emerged as the favorite of activists for both the content of his policies — like mandating zero-carbon electricity by 2040, one of the strongest in the country — and for passing them with a one-vote majority in the Legislature.
When Walz signed the clean electricity bill, he did it at the St. Paul Labor Center flanked by union members, climate activists and even a utility executive, Chris Clark of Xcel Energy.
“I have to tell you, when I hear people say ‘You’re moving too fast’ — we can’t move too fast when it comes to addressing climate change,” Walz said at that 2023 event. “This idea of waiting is a luxury we do not have, and Minnesotans do not have.”...
Walz has made “huge strides” on climate, {Sunrise Movement spokesperson Stevie O’Hanlon} said, by “pitching climate action as a way to make people’s everyday lives better, create good-paying green jobs, and invest in making communities stronger. That is a winning message, and one the Democratic ticket should put at the forefront of their agenda.”...
https://www.eenews.net/articles/what-harris-pick-of-tim-walz-means-for-climate-e...
102margd
On the Rise: The Latest Probability for an AMOC Collapse is Shocking (14:55)
Paul Beckwith
AMOC collapse time is estimated between 2037-2064 (10-90% CI) with a mean of 2050.
Probability of AMOC collapse before year 2050 is estimated to be 59 +/- 17%.
https://youtu.be/idT4XNiq1N0?si=-ZMnzw0pktCkD2qg
- Paul Beckwith @PaulHBeckwith | 9:37 PM · Aug 21, 2024 {X}:
Climate System Science Expert, Educator, Physicist (M. Sc. Laser Optics, B.Eng. Engineering Physics), interested in climate solutions and chess {Ottawa}
Paul Beckwith
AMOC collapse time is estimated between 2037-2064 (10-90% CI) with a mean of 2050.
Probability of AMOC collapse before year 2050 is estimated to be 59 +/- 17%.
https://youtu.be/idT4XNiq1N0?si=-ZMnzw0pktCkD2qg
- Paul Beckwith @PaulHBeckwith | 9:37 PM · Aug 21, 2024 {X}:
Climate System Science Expert, Educator, Physicist (M. Sc. Laser Optics, B.Eng. Engineering Physics), interested in climate solutions and chess {Ottawa}
103margd
Cruise Ships Have Doubled in Size Since 2000
Nicholas Vincent | 8/21 /2024
...This year alone, approximately 35 million passengers are expected to travel by sea
With a 17% increase in CO2 emissions in 2022 compared to 2019, alongside a staggering 500% rise in methane emissions. The environmental impact is compounded by the energy-intensive nature of these voyages, often requiring long-haul flights to boarding points...
https://onegreenplanet.org/environment/cruise-ships-have-doubled-in-size-since-2...
Nicholas Vincent | 8/21 /2024
...This year alone, approximately 35 million passengers are expected to travel by sea
With a 17% increase in CO2 emissions in 2022 compared to 2019, alongside a staggering 500% rise in methane emissions. The environmental impact is compounded by the energy-intensive nature of these voyages, often requiring long-haul flights to boarding points...
https://onegreenplanet.org/environment/cruise-ships-have-doubled-in-size-since-2...
104margd
This chart of ocean heat is terrifying
The Gulf’s looming hurricane problem, explained in a simple graph.
Benji Jones | Aug 22, 2024
The Gulf {of Mexico} is now the hottest it’s been in the modern record, according to Brian McNoldy, a climatologist at the University of Miami, who produced the chart. Taking a dip would feel like a bath: The average temperature of the surface is close to 90 degrees, according to recent measures of sea surface temperature.
Hotter water can lead to stronger hurricanes that accelerate faster, giving coastal regions less time to prepare.
Then there’s the other problem: Hot water kills corals, which defend coastal communities from hurricanes.
https://www.vox.com/climate/368324/hurricane-season-2024-gulf-mexico-ocean-warmi...
The Gulf’s looming hurricane problem, explained in a simple graph.
Benji Jones | Aug 22, 2024
The Gulf {of Mexico} is now the hottest it’s been in the modern record, according to Brian McNoldy, a climatologist at the University of Miami, who produced the chart. Taking a dip would feel like a bath: The average temperature of the surface is close to 90 degrees, according to recent measures of sea surface temperature.
Hotter water can lead to stronger hurricanes that accelerate faster, giving coastal regions less time to prepare.
Then there’s the other problem: Hot water kills corals, which defend coastal communities from hurricanes.
https://www.vox.com/climate/368324/hurricane-season-2024-gulf-mexico-ocean-warmi...
1052wonderY
A quick summary of last week’s weather:
https://www.instagram.com/reel/C_IlL_QOSNd/?igsh=MTFnNHZ0ODFwN2d3Yw==
I see the report has missed some areas of the world.
https://www.instagram.com/reel/C_IlL_QOSNd/?igsh=MTFnNHZ0ODFwN2d3Yw==
I see the report has missed some areas of the world.
106margd
>105 2wonderY: Yikes, eh? The one I'm most fearing to wake up to is mass death from one of those wet bulb events... but wildfires, mudslides, floods, hurricanes, starvation & disease, Mad-Max wars over dwindling resources aren't far behind...
107kiparsky
>106 margd: I'm very sad to tell you that such an event is more or less guaranteed to happen in the relatively near term. I'm not a climate scientist, so you can take this for what it's worth, but I do try to keep up with these things and based on what I'm seeing I would be surprised but not shocked if it happened in the next five years, and I would be astonished if it did not happen in the next fifteen. This is a shorter time-frame than I've usually seen, and I could be wrong, but it's my best guess.
This is of course one of the reasons that I'm so incensed about the head-in-the-sand refusal to allow even the most anodyne experiments with atmospheric geoengineering, which could, in principle, allow us to bring down peak temperatures when such an event is imminent and thereby save multiple millions of lives - but only if preliminary experiments are done, to understand the actual deployed effect.
This is of course one of the reasons that I'm so incensed about the head-in-the-sand refusal to allow even the most anodyne experiments with atmospheric geoengineering, which could, in principle, allow us to bring down peak temperatures when such an event is imminent and thereby save multiple millions of lives - but only if preliminary experiments are done, to understand the actual deployed effect.
108margd
Scott Duncan @ScottDuncanWX | 1:11 PM · Aug 26, 2024 {X}:
Scottish meteorologist based in London
We have just observed the highest temperature ever recorded in winter in Australia 🇦🇺
Multiple weather stations have been breaking records, highest temperature came in today at +41.6°C in Western Australia (Yampi Sound*). Astonishing intensity of heat for winter.
Map Australia air temperature 22-26 aug 2024 (https://x.com/ScottDuncanWX/status/1828117991218913630)
* margd: on the coast! More on Australia's winter heat at https://x.com/Hitchy04/status/1828008763800113360
_______________________________
UN chief Guterres warns of fast-rising Pacific ocean
27 Aug 2024
UN chief Antonio Guterres issued a global SOS regarding Pacific ocean temperatures, rising at three times the global average rate. He called for a cutdown on emissions and support for vulnerable countries.
...Eighteen members of the Pacific Islands Forum met in Tonga for a week during the summit to discuss climate change and security.
The Pacific Islands Forum comprises of Australia, Cook Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, French Polynesia, Kiribati, Nauru, New Caledonia, New Zealand, Niue, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Republic of Marshall Islands, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu...
Member Australia is one of the world's biggest exporters of coal...
https://www.dw.com/en/un-chief-guterres-warns-of-fast-rising-pacific-ocean/a-700...
Scottish meteorologist based in London
We have just observed the highest temperature ever recorded in winter in Australia 🇦🇺
Multiple weather stations have been breaking records, highest temperature came in today at +41.6°C in Western Australia (Yampi Sound*). Astonishing intensity of heat for winter.
Map Australia air temperature 22-26 aug 2024 (https://x.com/ScottDuncanWX/status/1828117991218913630)
* margd: on the coast! More on Australia's winter heat at https://x.com/Hitchy04/status/1828008763800113360
_______________________________
UN chief Guterres warns of fast-rising Pacific ocean
27 Aug 2024
UN chief Antonio Guterres issued a global SOS regarding Pacific ocean temperatures, rising at three times the global average rate. He called for a cutdown on emissions and support for vulnerable countries.
...Eighteen members of the Pacific Islands Forum met in Tonga for a week during the summit to discuss climate change and security.
The Pacific Islands Forum comprises of Australia, Cook Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, French Polynesia, Kiribati, Nauru, New Caledonia, New Zealand, Niue, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Republic of Marshall Islands, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu...
Member Australia is one of the world's biggest exporters of coal...
https://www.dw.com/en/un-chief-guterres-warns-of-fast-rising-pacific-ocean/a-700...
109margd
Earth’s Temperature Could Increase by 25 Degrees: Startling New Research
Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research | August 27, 2024
...Doubling the atmospheric CO2 levels could raise Earth’s average temperature by 7 to 14 degrees Celsius (13 to 25.2 degrees Fahrenheit), according to sediment analysis from the Pacific Ocean near California conducted by researchers from NIOZ and the Universities of Utrecht and Bristol.
...“The temperature rise we found is much larger than the 2.3 to 4.5 degrees Celsius (4.1 to 8.1 degrees Fahrenheit) that the UN climate panel, IPCC, has been estimating so far,” said the first author, Caitlyn Witkowski...
Reference: “Continuous sterane and phytane δ13C record reveals a substantial pCO2 decline since the mid-Miocene” by Caitlyn R. Witkowski, Anna S. von der Heydt, Paul J. Valdes, Marcel T. J. van der Meer, Stefan Schouten and Jaap S. Sinninghe Damsté, 18 June 2024, Nature Communications.
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-47676-9 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-47676-9
https://scitechdaily.com/earths-temperature-could-increase-by-25-degrees-startli...
Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research | August 27, 2024
...Doubling the atmospheric CO2 levels could raise Earth’s average temperature by 7 to 14 degrees Celsius (13 to 25.2 degrees Fahrenheit), according to sediment analysis from the Pacific Ocean near California conducted by researchers from NIOZ and the Universities of Utrecht and Bristol.
...“The temperature rise we found is much larger than the 2.3 to 4.5 degrees Celsius (4.1 to 8.1 degrees Fahrenheit) that the UN climate panel, IPCC, has been estimating so far,” said the first author, Caitlyn Witkowski...
Reference: “Continuous sterane and phytane δ13C record reveals a substantial pCO2 decline since the mid-Miocene” by Caitlyn R. Witkowski, Anna S. von der Heydt, Paul J. Valdes, Marcel T. J. van der Meer, Stefan Schouten and Jaap S. Sinninghe Damsté, 18 June 2024, Nature Communications.
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-47676-9 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-47676-9
https://scitechdaily.com/earths-temperature-could-increase-by-25-degrees-startli...
110margd
Nothing here -- just two white heirs (RFK Jr & Tucker Carlson) messing with people's minds over solutions to climate change... soil, not wind power, etc.
12:29 (https://x.com/TheFinalBot1/status/1828245686845927504)
12:29 (https://x.com/TheFinalBot1/status/1828245686845927504)
111margd
How the Heat Is Changing Us
Ten ways—small and enormous.
Slate Staff | Aug 27, 2024
1 Summer Camp Looks a Little Different
2 Personal Fans Are Normal Now
3 Exercising Outdoors Is a Challenge
4 Some People Are Modifying Their Sweat Glands
5 We’re Doing More Laundry
6 We’re Sticky—So Is the Infrastructure
7 We’re Rethinking Food Safety (Just a Little Bit)
8 The ground Can Cause Burns
9 Outdoor Work Gets Dangerous
10 People Are Dying
https://slate.com/technology/2024/08/heat-waves-summer-record-temperature-climat...
Ten ways—small and enormous.
Slate Staff | Aug 27, 2024
1 Summer Camp Looks a Little Different
2 Personal Fans Are Normal Now
3 Exercising Outdoors Is a Challenge
4 Some People Are Modifying Their Sweat Glands
5 We’re Doing More Laundry
6 We’re Sticky—So Is the Infrastructure
7 We’re Rethinking Food Safety (Just a Little Bit)
8 The ground Can Cause Burns
9 Outdoor Work Gets Dangerous
10 People Are Dying
https://slate.com/technology/2024/08/heat-waves-summer-record-temperature-climat...
112margd
Emissions from Canada’s 2023 wildfires higher than all but 3 countries: Study
Zack Budryk | 08/28/24
...Not only did the fires burn nearly 4 percent of the country’s forests, but they also generated 647 million metric tons in carbon emissions, quadruple that of the emissions from fossil fuel consumption the same year.
The study, published in the journal Nature, found that only China, the U.S. and India produced more carbon emissions than the fires in 2023. Those three countries are the three leaders in carbon emissions worldwide. Canada is the No. 10 emitter, producing just under 2 percent of worldwide emissions.
Large boreal forests like those affected by the Canadian fires have long been considered a major carbon sink, or a location that absorbs more carbon than it emits, but the data in the study suggests that if a fire is big enough, the forests may not reliably absorb the damage. Canada is the site of nearly 9 percent of forestland worldwide.
...“Climate models project that the temperatures of 2023 {hottest year worldwide} will become normal by the 2050s. Such changes are likely to increase fire activity, risking the carbon uptake potential of Canadian forests,” the study authors wrote. “This will impact allowable emissions for reaching warming targets, as reduced carbon sequestration by ecosystems must be compensated for by adjusting anthropogenic emissions reductions.”...
https://thehill.com/homenews/4852297-emissions-canadas-2023-wildfires-study/
------------------------------------
Brendan Byrne et al. 2024. Carbon emissions from the 2023 Canadian wildfires. Nature (28 Aug 2024). Open access. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07878-z
Zack Budryk | 08/28/24
...Not only did the fires burn nearly 4 percent of the country’s forests, but they also generated 647 million metric tons in carbon emissions, quadruple that of the emissions from fossil fuel consumption the same year.
The study, published in the journal Nature, found that only China, the U.S. and India produced more carbon emissions than the fires in 2023. Those three countries are the three leaders in carbon emissions worldwide. Canada is the No. 10 emitter, producing just under 2 percent of worldwide emissions.
Large boreal forests like those affected by the Canadian fires have long been considered a major carbon sink, or a location that absorbs more carbon than it emits, but the data in the study suggests that if a fire is big enough, the forests may not reliably absorb the damage. Canada is the site of nearly 9 percent of forestland worldwide.
...“Climate models project that the temperatures of 2023 {hottest year worldwide} will become normal by the 2050s. Such changes are likely to increase fire activity, risking the carbon uptake potential of Canadian forests,” the study authors wrote. “This will impact allowable emissions for reaching warming targets, as reduced carbon sequestration by ecosystems must be compensated for by adjusting anthropogenic emissions reductions.”...
https://thehill.com/homenews/4852297-emissions-canadas-2023-wildfires-study/
------------------------------------
Brendan Byrne et al. 2024. Carbon emissions from the 2023 Canadian wildfires. Nature (28 Aug 2024). Open access. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07878-z
113margd
As ‘Doomsday’ Glacier Melts, Can an Artificial Barrier Save It?
Fred Pearce • August 26, 2024
Relatively warm ocean currents are weakening the base of Antarctica’s enormous Thwaites Glacier, whose demise could raise sea levels by as much as 7 feet. To separate the ice from those warmer ocean waters, scientists have put forward an audacious plan to erect a massive underwater curtain...
https://e360.yale.edu/features/thwaites-glacier-pine-glacier-antarctica-geoengin...
Fred Pearce • August 26, 2024
Relatively warm ocean currents are weakening the base of Antarctica’s enormous Thwaites Glacier, whose demise could raise sea levels by as much as 7 feet. To separate the ice from those warmer ocean waters, scientists have put forward an audacious plan to erect a massive underwater curtain...
https://e360.yale.edu/features/thwaites-glacier-pine-glacier-antarctica-geoengin...
114margd
Philip J. Klotzbach et al, 2024. DISCUSSION OF 2024 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON TO DATE AND FORECAST THOUGHTS ON THE REST OF THE SEASON. Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University. 3 Sept 2024. 32p. https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2024_0903_seasondiscussion.pdf
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season got off to an extremely fast start, with Hurricane Beryl becoming the earliest Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic on record. Hurricanes Debby and Ernesto followed in early and mid-August, respectively, leading to a well above-average season through the middle part of August. However, since Ernesto dissipated on 20 August, the Atlantic has had no named storm activity. As we near the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, we discuss the 2024 season in detail, including several possible reasons for the recent dearth in Atlantic hurricane activity. These reasons include:
1) a northward-shifted monsoon trough resulting in African easterly waves emerging at too far north of a latitude,
2) extremely warm upper-level temperatures resulting in stabilization of the atmosphere,
3) too much easterly shear in the eastern Atlantic, and more recently
4) unfavorable subseasonal variability associated with the Madden-Julian oscillation.
We believe that it is likely a combination of these factors (and perhaps others) that have led to this recent quiet period. We still do anticipate an above-normal season overall, however, given that large-scale conditions appear to become more favorable around the middle of September. We note that we are not issuing a new seasonal forecast with this discussion.
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season got off to an extremely fast start, with Hurricane Beryl becoming the earliest Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic on record. Hurricanes Debby and Ernesto followed in early and mid-August, respectively, leading to a well above-average season through the middle part of August. However, since Ernesto dissipated on 20 August, the Atlantic has had no named storm activity. As we near the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, we discuss the 2024 season in detail, including several possible reasons for the recent dearth in Atlantic hurricane activity. These reasons include:
1) a northward-shifted monsoon trough resulting in African easterly waves emerging at too far north of a latitude,
2) extremely warm upper-level temperatures resulting in stabilization of the atmosphere,
3) too much easterly shear in the eastern Atlantic, and more recently
4) unfavorable subseasonal variability associated with the Madden-Julian oscillation.
We believe that it is likely a combination of these factors (and perhaps others) that have led to this recent quiet period. We still do anticipate an above-normal season overall, however, given that large-scale conditions appear to become more favorable around the middle of September. We note that we are not issuing a new seasonal forecast with this discussion.
115margd
Peter Dynes @PGDynes | 5:30 PM · Sep 9, 2024 {X}:
MD http://MEER.org - building climate resilient Adaptation/Mitigation through SRT (surface reflection technology) {Belfast}
In #Zimbabwe, desperate communities are digging into bone-dry riverbeds in search of water. A huge #drought has left nearly 70 million without adequate food/water. The #Vombozi #River is now just a huge sandpit. #WaterCrisis #ClimateCrisis #SouthernAfrica
Photo (https://x.com/PGDynes/status/1833256687148666946/photo/1)
“If you go anywhere in southern Africa, family granaries are empty, and maize, which is the region’s most consumed in terms of carbohydrates, is now priced out of many people’s hands,"
Photo (https://x.com/PGDynes/status/1833256691250696538/photo/1)
MD http://MEER.org - building climate resilient Adaptation/Mitigation through SRT (surface reflection technology) {Belfast}
In #Zimbabwe, desperate communities are digging into bone-dry riverbeds in search of water. A huge #drought has left nearly 70 million without adequate food/water. The #Vombozi #River is now just a huge sandpit. #WaterCrisis #ClimateCrisis #SouthernAfrica
Photo (https://x.com/PGDynes/status/1833256687148666946/photo/1)
“If you go anywhere in southern Africa, family granaries are empty, and maize, which is the region’s most consumed in terms of carbohydrates, is now priced out of many people’s hands,"
Photo (https://x.com/PGDynes/status/1833256691250696538/photo/1)
116margd
2024's unusually persistent warmth
This year is increasingly diverging from past El Nino years.
Zeke Hausfather* | Sep 09, 2024
... It’s looking increasingly less likely that last year’s elevated temperatures were a mostly transient phenomenon. Rather, some combination of forcings or changes in feedbacks may be driving higher global temperatures going forward...
https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/2024s-unusually-persistent-warmth
* "A tireless chronicler and commentator on all things climate" -NYTimes. Climate lead @stripe, writer @CarbonBrief, scientist @BerkeleyEarth, IPCC/NCA5 author. {San Francisco}
This year is increasingly diverging from past El Nino years.
Zeke Hausfather* | Sep 09, 2024
... It’s looking increasingly less likely that last year’s elevated temperatures were a mostly transient phenomenon. Rather, some combination of forcings or changes in feedbacks may be driving higher global temperatures going forward...
https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/2024s-unusually-persistent-warmth
* "A tireless chronicler and commentator on all things climate" -NYTimes. Climate lead @stripe, writer @CarbonBrief, scientist @BerkeleyEarth, IPCC/NCA5 author. {San Francisco}
117margd
That Debate Showed Why Dems Shouldn’t Tack Rightward—Ever
Harris’s climate answer was bad by design...
Kate Aronoff / September 11, 2024
... Asked about the climate crisis at the tail end of the night, Harris took the opportunity to brag about the fact that the Biden administration has overseen record levels of oil and gas production and that the Inflation Reduction Act opened more leases for fracking. “I am proud that as vice president over the last four years, we have invested a trillion dollars in a clean energy economy while we have also increased domestic gas production to historic levels,” she boasted.
... To hear both parties tell it, oil and gas—and fracking, in particular—has been an unmitigated success story whereby private-sector dynamism has powered America toward its long-held dream of energy independence, creating untold profits and jobs along the way.
There’s a more compelling and correct story that Democrats could tell about fracking: that fossil fuel companies thought it was too expensive to be worth doing until the federal government poured billions of dollars’ worth of funding into basic research and tax breaks. The industry depends on tens of billions of dollars per year in local, state, and federal subsidies. Despite all that support, fracking companies—none more so than those in Pennsylvania!—spent over a decade burning through their shareholders’ money, unable to turn a profit. All that meant they had to come begging for a bailout during the pandemic so they could keep poisoning the country’s air, water, and politics. Now those same executives are trying to figure out how to fire workers through automation and gin up demand for plastics we don’t need, and that keep showing up in our blood, brains, and placenta. The government has invested real resources into creating the shale boom; now it’s time to redirect those energies into building a twenty-first-century energy economy.
But leading Democrats, including Harris, seem incapable of talking about the downsides of fossil fuel production. All they can manage is gesturing vaguely at the need for some ill-defined “transition.” And insofar as they attack Big Oil, they do so by claiming companies aren’t producing enough oil to make gasoline cheaper—which isn’t exactly how that works...
https://newrepublic.com/article/185858/harris-debate-climate-fracking
Harris’s climate answer was bad by design...
Kate Aronoff / September 11, 2024
... Asked about the climate crisis at the tail end of the night, Harris took the opportunity to brag about the fact that the Biden administration has overseen record levels of oil and gas production and that the Inflation Reduction Act opened more leases for fracking. “I am proud that as vice president over the last four years, we have invested a trillion dollars in a clean energy economy while we have also increased domestic gas production to historic levels,” she boasted.
... To hear both parties tell it, oil and gas—and fracking, in particular—has been an unmitigated success story whereby private-sector dynamism has powered America toward its long-held dream of energy independence, creating untold profits and jobs along the way.
There’s a more compelling and correct story that Democrats could tell about fracking: that fossil fuel companies thought it was too expensive to be worth doing until the federal government poured billions of dollars’ worth of funding into basic research and tax breaks. The industry depends on tens of billions of dollars per year in local, state, and federal subsidies. Despite all that support, fracking companies—none more so than those in Pennsylvania!—spent over a decade burning through their shareholders’ money, unable to turn a profit. All that meant they had to come begging for a bailout during the pandemic so they could keep poisoning the country’s air, water, and politics. Now those same executives are trying to figure out how to fire workers through automation and gin up demand for plastics we don’t need, and that keep showing up in our blood, brains, and placenta. The government has invested real resources into creating the shale boom; now it’s time to redirect those energies into building a twenty-first-century energy economy.
But leading Democrats, including Harris, seem incapable of talking about the downsides of fossil fuel production. All they can manage is gesturing vaguely at the need for some ill-defined “transition.” And insofar as they attack Big Oil, they do so by claiming companies aren’t producing enough oil to make gasoline cheaper—which isn’t exactly how that works...
https://newrepublic.com/article/185858/harris-debate-climate-fracking
118margd
Lyle Lewis@Race2Extinct | 2:17 PM · Sep 11, 2024 {X}:
My new book ”Racing to Extinction: Why Humanity Will Soon Vanish” analyzes humanity & its impending extinction through the lens of my 30+ years as an endangered species biologist with DOI {Dept of Interior}.
During the 4th hottest year on record, American’s concern for climate change……..meh.
The environment? A nonissue.
Bar graph, debate topics interesting to Rs v Ds (https://x.com/Race2Extinct/status/1833932808013971473/photo/1)
My new book ”Racing to Extinction: Why Humanity Will Soon Vanish” analyzes humanity & its impending extinction through the lens of my 30+ years as an endangered species biologist with DOI {Dept of Interior}.
During the 4th hottest year on record, American’s concern for climate change……..meh.
The environment? A nonissue.
Bar graph, debate topics interesting to Rs v Ds (https://x.com/Race2Extinct/status/1833932808013971473/photo/1)
119margd
At 2.7°C of warming—our current policy trajectory—2 billion people will face extreme heat. Shockingly, 99.7% of them live in the global South, the very people who contributed least to the crisis. The injustice is staggering. 🌍🔥
Map, mean annual temperatures 29C or greater, 2070, at 2.7 C warming (https://x.com/PGDynes/status/1834153299261465002/photo/1)
- Peter Dynes @PGDynes | 4:53 AM · Sep 12, 2024
Map, mean annual temperatures 29C or greater, 2070, at 2.7 C warming (https://x.com/PGDynes/status/1834153299261465002/photo/1)
- Peter Dynes @PGDynes | 4:53 AM · Sep 12, 2024
120margd
>117 margd:
Clean Energy Investments Are Revitalizing Pennsylvania Communities, Trump Is Promising to Crush Them
September 9, 2024
Donald Trump is the only threat to Pennsylvania energy jobs and production in the presidential race.
... Since the passage of the clean energy plan, Pennsylvania has benefited from new clean energy projects that have invested $1.08 billion and created 2,881 jobs across the commonwealth, with many more to come. Not only are these companies creating new good-paying and unionized jobs, but some have invested in workforce training and skills development programs – building Pennsylvania’s workforce for the future. These jobs build on Pennsylvania’s established leadership on clean energy; the state is home to 145,153 clean energy jobs, according to the U.S. Department of Energy ...
https://climatepower.us/news/clean-energy-investments-are-revitalizing-pennsylva...
Clean Energy Investments Are Revitalizing Pennsylvania Communities, Trump Is Promising to Crush Them
September 9, 2024
Donald Trump is the only threat to Pennsylvania energy jobs and production in the presidential race.
... Since the passage of the clean energy plan, Pennsylvania has benefited from new clean energy projects that have invested $1.08 billion and created 2,881 jobs across the commonwealth, with many more to come. Not only are these companies creating new good-paying and unionized jobs, but some have invested in workforce training and skills development programs – building Pennsylvania’s workforce for the future. These jobs build on Pennsylvania’s established leadership on clean energy; the state is home to 145,153 clean energy jobs, according to the U.S. Department of Energy ...
https://climatepower.us/news/clean-energy-investments-are-revitalizing-pennsylva...
121margd
The Ocean and Climate Change (global maps)
Our ocean is changing. With 70 percent of the planet covered in water, the seas are important drivers of the global climate. Yet increasing greenhouse gases from human activities are altering the ocean before our eyes. NASA and its partners are on a mission to find out more...
The ocean is warming
Sea levels are rising
The ocean is getting a little greener
Ocean warming is altering hurricanes
Ocean acidification and heating are altering marine ecosystems
Sea ice is thinning and shrinking
El Niño can add to the heat
Ocean circulation may be changing
https://science.nasa.gov/earth/explore/the-ocean-and-climate-change
Our ocean is changing. With 70 percent of the planet covered in water, the seas are important drivers of the global climate. Yet increasing greenhouse gases from human activities are altering the ocean before our eyes. NASA and its partners are on a mission to find out more...
The ocean is warming
Sea levels are rising
The ocean is getting a little greener
Ocean warming is altering hurricanes
Ocean acidification and heating are altering marine ecosystems
Sea ice is thinning and shrinking
El Niño can add to the heat
Ocean circulation may be changing
https://science.nasa.gov/earth/explore/the-ocean-and-climate-change
1222wonderY
Scientists issue warning about project proposal to change the world's largest wetlands: 'It would be a senseless tragedy'
https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/scientists-issue-warning-about-proj...
But wetlands everywhere are disappearing at alarming speed. Wetland "loss rates have increased by 50% since 2009," stated the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.
Just four years ago in the Pantanal, devastating wildfires decimated close to one-fifth of the region — and this year, per the Guardian, "fires were the worst on record."
Constructing the commercial waterway could displace populations and escalate the likelihood of disasters, warned experts.
"It would be a senseless tragedy," Wantzen lamented.
"It will probably mean the end of the Pantanal as we know it," researcher Pierre Girard added.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/scientists-issue-warning-about-proj...
But wetlands everywhere are disappearing at alarming speed. Wetland "loss rates have increased by 50% since 2009," stated the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.
Just four years ago in the Pantanal, devastating wildfires decimated close to one-fifth of the region — and this year, per the Guardian, "fires were the worst on record."
Constructing the commercial waterway could displace populations and escalate the likelihood of disasters, warned experts.
"It would be a senseless tragedy," Wantzen lamented.
"It will probably mean the end of the Pantanal as we know it," researcher Pierre Girard added.
123margd
If you don't laugh, you'll cry -- :D :D :D :D :D
Kim Wexler's Ponytail 🐝💛🎗 @MadisonKittay | 10:07 AM · Sep 15, 2024 {X}:
Someone you know is listening to this and thinking, "Yes, that person should definitely be President," instead of "Maybe it's time for hospice care for grampa."
1:41 (https://x.com/MadisonKittay/status/1835319621643079993)
__________________________________
'Not that simple': Trump drags Canadian river into California's water problems
Tyler Barrow | 16 Sept 2024
https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/not-that-simple-trump-drags-canadian-river-into-calif...
Kim Wexler's Ponytail 🐝💛🎗 @MadisonKittay | 10:07 AM · Sep 15, 2024 {X}:
Someone you know is listening to this and thinking, "Yes, that person should definitely be President," instead of "Maybe it's time for hospice care for grampa."
1:41 (https://x.com/MadisonKittay/status/1835319621643079993)
__________________________________
'Not that simple': Trump drags Canadian river into California's water problems
Tyler Barrow | 16 Sept 2024
https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/not-that-simple-trump-drags-canadian-river-into-calif...
124margd
What If Kamala Harris Is Wrong About Voters’ Climate Views?
Heather Souvaine Horn | September 20, 2024
Voters’ preferences haven’t changed much since 2020, when Biden ran on a much more aggressively pro-climate platform. So why is Harris tacking so far to the right?
https://newrepublic.com/post/186163/kamala-harris-climate-voters-polls
Heather Souvaine Horn | September 20, 2024
Voters’ preferences haven’t changed much since 2020, when Biden ran on a much more aggressively pro-climate platform. So why is Harris tacking so far to the right?
https://newrepublic.com/post/186163/kamala-harris-climate-voters-polls
125margd
I suspect agriculture will be even a harder nut to crack than fossil fuels, given all the vested and personal interests...
Largest study of its kind shows the co-benefits to environment and health of eating less meat and more plants.
Emma Bryce
...analysis left little doubt that those who eat diets richer in plants are also healthier, as well as having a lower environmental footprint. In fact, in the top 10% of participants, whose plant-heavy diets most closely matched the Planetary Health Diet, the risk of premature death due to disease was 23% lower than those in the bottom 10% of the survey. These plant-keen participants showed a 14% lower risk of death from cardiovascular disease, a 10% lower risk of death from cancer, a 28% reduced risk of death from neurodegenerative conditions, and strikingly, a 47% lower death risk from respiratory disease.
Meanwhile, the environmental gains of eating more plants were striking too: their diets produced 29% less in the way of greenhouse gas emissions, required 21% less fertilizer, and 51% less cropland area compared to those whose diets scored lowest in the index. The reduced land use could bring significant further climate gains, if it is turned over to wild habitat again, which would lock in more carbon via new vegetation and undisturbed soils. ...
https://www.anthropocenemagazine.org/2024/06/confirmed-most-robust-evidence-yet-...
---------------------------------
Linh B Pui et al. 2024. Planetary Health Diet Index and risk of total and cause-specific mortality in three prospective cohorts. Am J of Clinical Nutrition Volume 120, Issue 1 p80-91July 2024. https://ajcn.nutrition.org/article/S0002-9165(24)00389-7/fulltext
Abstract
...Results. During follow-up, we documented 31,330 deaths among females and 23,206 among males. When comparing the highest with the lowest quintile of PHDI {Planetary Health Diet Index*}, the pooled multivariable-adjusted HRs were 0.77 ... for all-cause mortality ... The PHDI was associated with lower risk of deaths from cardiovascular diseases (HR: 0.86...), cancer (HR: 0.90...), respiratory diseases (HR: 0.53...), and neurodegenerative diseases (HR: 0.72...). In females, but not males, the PHDI was also significantly associated with a lower risk of deaths from infectious diseases (HR: 0.62...). PHDI scores were also associated inversely with greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental impacts.
Conclusions. In 3 large United States-based prospective cohorts of males and females with up to 34 y of follow-up, a higher PHDI was associated with lower risk of total and cause-specific mortality and environment impacts.
* https://eatforum.org/eat-lancet-commission/the-planetary-health-diet-and-you/
Largest study of its kind shows the co-benefits to environment and health of eating less meat and more plants.
Emma Bryce
...analysis left little doubt that those who eat diets richer in plants are also healthier, as well as having a lower environmental footprint. In fact, in the top 10% of participants, whose plant-heavy diets most closely matched the Planetary Health Diet, the risk of premature death due to disease was 23% lower than those in the bottom 10% of the survey. These plant-keen participants showed a 14% lower risk of death from cardiovascular disease, a 10% lower risk of death from cancer, a 28% reduced risk of death from neurodegenerative conditions, and strikingly, a 47% lower death risk from respiratory disease.
Meanwhile, the environmental gains of eating more plants were striking too: their diets produced 29% less in the way of greenhouse gas emissions, required 21% less fertilizer, and 51% less cropland area compared to those whose diets scored lowest in the index. The reduced land use could bring significant further climate gains, if it is turned over to wild habitat again, which would lock in more carbon via new vegetation and undisturbed soils. ...
https://www.anthropocenemagazine.org/2024/06/confirmed-most-robust-evidence-yet-...
---------------------------------
Linh B Pui et al. 2024. Planetary Health Diet Index and risk of total and cause-specific mortality in three prospective cohorts. Am J of Clinical Nutrition Volume 120, Issue 1 p80-91July 2024. https://ajcn.nutrition.org/article/S0002-9165(24)00389-7/fulltext
Abstract
...Results. During follow-up, we documented 31,330 deaths among females and 23,206 among males. When comparing the highest with the lowest quintile of PHDI {Planetary Health Diet Index*}, the pooled multivariable-adjusted HRs were 0.77 ... for all-cause mortality ... The PHDI was associated with lower risk of deaths from cardiovascular diseases (HR: 0.86...), cancer (HR: 0.90...), respiratory diseases (HR: 0.53...), and neurodegenerative diseases (HR: 0.72...). In females, but not males, the PHDI was also significantly associated with a lower risk of deaths from infectious diseases (HR: 0.62...). PHDI scores were also associated inversely with greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental impacts.
Conclusions. In 3 large United States-based prospective cohorts of males and females with up to 34 y of follow-up, a higher PHDI was associated with lower risk of total and cause-specific mortality and environment impacts.
* https://eatforum.org/eat-lancet-commission/the-planetary-health-diet-and-you/
126margd
Benjamin J. W. Mills 2024. Hot and cold Earth through time. Reconstructing ancient Earth’s temperature reveals a global climate regulation system (Perspective). Science 19 Sep 2024, Vol 385, Issue 6715, pp. 1276-1278. DOI: 10.1126/science.ads1526 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.ads1526
...The new Phanerozoic {~ last 500 million years} temperature record by Judd et al. shows a sequence of cool and warm climates that is broadly consistent with the known ice cap expansion and retreat. It also reveals some key differences compared with previous temperature estimates... The new reconstruction of Judd et al. ... predicts that greenhouse periods had similar temperature ranges... suggests that Earth possesses a global climate regulation system that causes temperature to stay within a particular range. One widely accepted assumption is that the reaction of igneous rocks with water and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) helps to limit the extent of long-term climate change. This process slowly removes CO2 from the atmosphere and is amplified when climate warms. It is also being used as a geoengineering method to try to counter anthropogenic emissions... Thus, further confirmation of a climate regulation system is welcome.
However, the new Phanerozoic temperature record of Judd et al. opens up some potential problems. The model predicts generally hotter temperatures for the greenhouse periods than those achieved in models of Earth’s long-term carbon cycle... Thus, reassessment of Earth’s carbon-climate system over a long timescale may be needed to close this gap. Further, the issue of seawater oxygen isotope variation has not been entirely resolved. The iron oxide dataset used to correct against this is sparse... Although it has sufficient data points to conclude that the isotope ratio has most likely changed over the past billions of years, the amount of change over the last 500 million years is not clear. Even small variations in seawater oxygen isotopes have a large effect on temperature predictions made through the data assimilation methods used by the authors. More data to constrain this effect are needed, and alternative reconstructions of Earth’s temperature that do not rely on oxygen isotopes must continue to be developed.
Direct comparison of a possible future greenhouse climate to the past ones remains difficult because those warm periods were established gradually over millions of years. However, they are the only evidence available for what greenhouse climates look like, and they are vital for testing the accuracy of climate models... More fundamental scientific questions about the thermal limits of Earth’s biosphere and the role of temperature change in the evolution of more complex life forms also arise, and improved understanding of past temperatures will help answer them. This will contribute to assessing the driving processes behind long-term temperature changes and the natural mechanisms of stabilizing or destabilizing Earth’s climate.
-------------------------------------------------
Emily J. Judd et al. 2024. A 485-million-year history of Earth’s surface temperature. Science 20 Sep 2024 Vol 385, Issue 6715. DOI: 10.1126/science.adk3705 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adk3705
Editor’s summary
Understanding how global mean surface temperature (GMST) has varied over the past half-billion years, a time in which evolutionary patterns of flora and fauna have had such an important influence on the evolution of climate, is essential for understanding the processes driving climate over that interval. Judd et al. present a record of GMST over the past 485 million years that they constructed by combining proxy data with climate modeling... They found that GMST varied over a range from 11° to 36°C, with an “apparent” climate sensitivity of ∼8°C, about two to three times what it is today. —Jesse Smith
...The new Phanerozoic {~ last 500 million years} temperature record by Judd et al. shows a sequence of cool and warm climates that is broadly consistent with the known ice cap expansion and retreat. It also reveals some key differences compared with previous temperature estimates... The new reconstruction of Judd et al. ... predicts that greenhouse periods had similar temperature ranges... suggests that Earth possesses a global climate regulation system that causes temperature to stay within a particular range. One widely accepted assumption is that the reaction of igneous rocks with water and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) helps to limit the extent of long-term climate change. This process slowly removes CO2 from the atmosphere and is amplified when climate warms. It is also being used as a geoengineering method to try to counter anthropogenic emissions... Thus, further confirmation of a climate regulation system is welcome.
However, the new Phanerozoic temperature record of Judd et al. opens up some potential problems. The model predicts generally hotter temperatures for the greenhouse periods than those achieved in models of Earth’s long-term carbon cycle... Thus, reassessment of Earth’s carbon-climate system over a long timescale may be needed to close this gap. Further, the issue of seawater oxygen isotope variation has not been entirely resolved. The iron oxide dataset used to correct against this is sparse... Although it has sufficient data points to conclude that the isotope ratio has most likely changed over the past billions of years, the amount of change over the last 500 million years is not clear. Even small variations in seawater oxygen isotopes have a large effect on temperature predictions made through the data assimilation methods used by the authors. More data to constrain this effect are needed, and alternative reconstructions of Earth’s temperature that do not rely on oxygen isotopes must continue to be developed.
Direct comparison of a possible future greenhouse climate to the past ones remains difficult because those warm periods were established gradually over millions of years. However, they are the only evidence available for what greenhouse climates look like, and they are vital for testing the accuracy of climate models... More fundamental scientific questions about the thermal limits of Earth’s biosphere and the role of temperature change in the evolution of more complex life forms also arise, and improved understanding of past temperatures will help answer them. This will contribute to assessing the driving processes behind long-term temperature changes and the natural mechanisms of stabilizing or destabilizing Earth’s climate.
-------------------------------------------------
Emily J. Judd et al. 2024. A 485-million-year history of Earth’s surface temperature. Science 20 Sep 2024 Vol 385, Issue 6715. DOI: 10.1126/science.adk3705 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adk3705
Editor’s summary
Understanding how global mean surface temperature (GMST) has varied over the past half-billion years, a time in which evolutionary patterns of flora and fauna have had such an important influence on the evolution of climate, is essential for understanding the processes driving climate over that interval. Judd et al. present a record of GMST over the past 485 million years that they constructed by combining proxy data with climate modeling... They found that GMST varied over a range from 11° to 36°C, with an “apparent” climate sensitivity of ∼8°C, about two to three times what it is today. —Jesse Smith
127margd
Canada's emissions dropped slightly in 2023,
climate wins offset by coal and gas
CBC | Sep. 21, 2024
...Canada's greenhouse gas emissions dropped slightly last year, even as the economy and population grew, suggesting climate policies had their intended effect, a new analysis found.
In its annual emissions report, made public this morning, the Canadian Climate Institute said the country's emissions were cut by 0.8 per cent in 2023, to a total of 702 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.
...The most notable reductions were from the electricity sector — which shifted from emissions-intensive coal to other fuels, such as natural gas — and the building sector.
Those gains, however, were offset by increases in emissions from oil and gas and an increase in air travel after the pandemic...
...When asked about attempts to reduce emissions on Wednesday, ahead of the report's release, Environment and Climate Change Minister Steven Guilbeault said more measures are on the way, including draft regulations for the oil and gas emissions cap, along with rules for clean electricity regulations.
https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/news/climate/impact/canadas-emissions-dropp...
climate wins offset by coal and gas
CBC | Sep. 21, 2024
...Canada's greenhouse gas emissions dropped slightly last year, even as the economy and population grew, suggesting climate policies had their intended effect, a new analysis found.
In its annual emissions report, made public this morning, the Canadian Climate Institute said the country's emissions were cut by 0.8 per cent in 2023, to a total of 702 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.
...The most notable reductions were from the electricity sector — which shifted from emissions-intensive coal to other fuels, such as natural gas — and the building sector.
Those gains, however, were offset by increases in emissions from oil and gas and an increase in air travel after the pandemic...
...When asked about attempts to reduce emissions on Wednesday, ahead of the report's release, Environment and Climate Change Minister Steven Guilbeault said more measures are on the way, including draft regulations for the oil and gas emissions cap, along with rules for clean electricity regulations.
https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/news/climate/impact/canadas-emissions-dropp...
128margd
...The Amazon is one of the most important carbon sinks in the atmosphere, said Lucas Ferrante, a biologist and researcher.
“Today it has started to emit carbon,” he said. “We are at a turning point, a point of no return.”...
Incêndio em floresta na região de Porto Velho, em foto de 2019. Números recorde de queimadas deste ano são um sinal de alerta para os especialistas
From bloomberglinea.com.br
Google translate:
Fires aggravated by drought lead Amazon to greenhouse gas emissions Instead of capturing carbon, tropical forests can contribute to increased emissions, according to experts; situation may aggravate global warming Forest fire in the Porto Velho region, in a photo from 2019. Record numbers of fires this year are a warning sign for experts
Barbara Nascimento - Simone Iglesias - Eric Roston | 20 de Setembro, 2024
https://www.bloomberglinea.com.br/brasil/incendios-agravados-pela-seca-levam-ama...
Via Monica Piccinini @MAPICC2021 | 8:02 AM · Sep 21, 2024 {X}:
Freelance writer, focused on environmental, health and human rights issues. Guest writer for @the_ecologist, @TheCanaryUK, and openDemocracy. {UK}
“Today it has started to emit carbon,” he said. “We are at a turning point, a point of no return.”...
Incêndio em floresta na região de Porto Velho, em foto de 2019. Números recorde de queimadas deste ano são um sinal de alerta para os especialistas
From bloomberglinea.com.br
Google translate:
Fires aggravated by drought lead Amazon to greenhouse gas emissions Instead of capturing carbon, tropical forests can contribute to increased emissions, according to experts; situation may aggravate global warming Forest fire in the Porto Velho region, in a photo from 2019. Record numbers of fires this year are a warning sign for experts
Barbara Nascimento - Simone Iglesias - Eric Roston | 20 de Setembro, 2024
https://www.bloomberglinea.com.br/brasil/incendios-agravados-pela-seca-levam-ama...
Via Monica Piccinini @MAPICC2021 | 8:02 AM · Sep 21, 2024 {X}:
Freelance writer, focused on environmental, health and human rights issues. Guest writer for @the_ecologist, @TheCanaryUK, and openDemocracy. {UK}
129margd
Photo essay of cradle of civilization -- the Tigris and Euphrates R -- confronting climate change and related water-wars...
https://e360.yale.edu/features/tigris-euphrates-photo-essay
https://e360.yale.edu/features/tigris-euphrates-photo-essay
130margd
"The dangers associated with climate change are merely part of the entire world problimatique, and to view them in isolation from the rest of the world predicament would be to repeat the mistakes of many narrowly specialised observers who have examined the prospects for the future only through the tunnel of their expertise"
- climate scientist Stephen Schneider (1976)
Text excerpt, p 246 (https://x.com/ThierryAaron/status/1838182672167796982/photo/1)
Schneider, Stephen Henry et al. 1976. The Genesis strategy : climate and global survival. Plenum Press. https://archive.org/details/genesisstrategyc00schn/page/n1/mode/2up
- Dr. Aaron Thierry @ThierryAaron | 7:01 AM · Sep 23, 2024 {X}:
Graduate student at @CUSocSci - researching the role of science and scientists in the climate movement. PhD in Ecology. Activism. Climate communications.
- climate scientist Stephen Schneider (1976)
Text excerpt, p 246 (https://x.com/ThierryAaron/status/1838182672167796982/photo/1)
Schneider, Stephen Henry et al. 1976. The Genesis strategy : climate and global survival. Plenum Press. https://archive.org/details/genesisstrategyc00schn/page/n1/mode/2up
- Dr. Aaron Thierry @ThierryAaron | 7:01 AM · Sep 23, 2024 {X}:
Graduate student at @CUSocSci - researching the role of science and scientists in the climate movement. PhD in Ecology. Activism. Climate communications.
131margd
Except that petro-state Russia, uncurbed, will undermine international cooperation and action to limit the climate breakdown and mitigate its consequences...
I’ve studied geopolitics all my life: climate breakdown is a bigger threat than China and Russia
Anatol Lieven | 19 September 2024
...we need to realise that to concentrate on action against the climate crisis will mean making some hard and painful choices. At present, the mainstream left in Europe and North America appears to believe that it is possible to reshape economies to limit carbon emissions and to increase spending on health and social welfare and to radically increase military spending to confront Russia in Ukraine and elsewhere.
It isn’t possible. The money simply isn’t there. The result of pursuing all three goals simultaneously would be to fail at all of them; as demonstrated by the latest political developments in France and Germany, where a populist backlash is undermining support for Ukraine and climate action.
A critical step in the struggle to limit the climate crisis therefore has to be the pursuit of detente with Russia and China, and disengagement from conflicts in the Middle East, including the war in Gaza. This will require some very difficult and painful changes in existing policy and attitudes – but then again, nobody ever said that tackling climate breakdown was going to be easy.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/sep/19/russia-china-global-securi...
I’ve studied geopolitics all my life: climate breakdown is a bigger threat than China and Russia
Anatol Lieven | 19 September 2024
...we need to realise that to concentrate on action against the climate crisis will mean making some hard and painful choices. At present, the mainstream left in Europe and North America appears to believe that it is possible to reshape economies to limit carbon emissions and to increase spending on health and social welfare and to radically increase military spending to confront Russia in Ukraine and elsewhere.
It isn’t possible. The money simply isn’t there. The result of pursuing all three goals simultaneously would be to fail at all of them; as demonstrated by the latest political developments in France and Germany, where a populist backlash is undermining support for Ukraine and climate action.
A critical step in the struggle to limit the climate crisis therefore has to be the pursuit of detente with Russia and China, and disengagement from conflicts in the Middle East, including the war in Gaza. This will require some very difficult and painful changes in existing policy and attitudes – but then again, nobody ever said that tackling climate breakdown was going to be easy.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/sep/19/russia-china-global-securi...
