Fair Market Price for NBA's Top Rookie-Scale Extension Candidates

Rookie-scale extensions are complex negotiations. If a team believes in its player, it might pay top dollar as early as possible, even if the franchise isn't winning yet (like with Cade Cunningham and the Detroit Pistons).

Some players have already extended (check out the entire list of eligible players), but the rest must be decided before the regular season starts on October 22.

Most deals may be more challenging to reach, especially this offseason. Only two teams (Brooklyn Nets and Washington Wizards) are projected to have significant cap room next summer. Others may achieve financial flexibility through trades, options, and other difficult decisions—all to come well after next month's deadline.

The following is a list of the top candidates for rookie-scale extensions and their "fair" market prices.

Assuming a $154.6 million salary cap for the 2025-26 season, the most a player can get in the first year of their extension would be $38.7 million.

A player can qualify for up to $46.4 million but needs to earn NBA MVP, Defensive Player of the Year or be named to one of the All-NBA teams.

Without an extension, they can be made restricted free agents in June with a qualifying offer. Even unsigned, they will take up a certain amount of their team's salary (known as a cap hold).

The Philadelphia 76ers chose not to extend Tyrese Maxey last year because his cap hold was much lower than the maximum salary they intended to give. Similarly, some players on this list may need to wait, especially if their team might go under the cap in July.

Last summer's rookie-scale extensions fell into a few categories, with the higher tiers listed below:

• Potential "Supermax"—Three players signed with that extra bump—Tyrese Haliburton (Indiana Pacers), Anthony Edwards (Minnesota Timberwolves) and LaMelo Ball (Charlotte Hornets). Ball didn't qualify and is earning $35.1 million; the other two are at $42.2 million.
• Near-Max—Desmond Bane (Memphis Grizzlies) will earn $34 million this season ($1.1 million in additional unlikely incentives).
• Large: Devin Vassell (San Antonio Spurs) and Jaden McDaniels (Timberwolves) were well paid over five years, with salaries in the $131-146 million range (including incentives).
• Mid-Tier—Most in the range of the non-taxpayer mid-level exception (NTMLE), projected to be $14.1 million next season. Deals ranged from three to four seasons, starting in the $11-15.6 million range. Some increased year-to-year, others decreased or remained flat. Those paid include Isaiah Stewart II (Detroit Pistons), Deni Avdija (extended with the Washington Wizards, traded to the Portland Trail Blazers), Onyeka Okongwu (Atlanta Hawks), Josh Green (initially with Dallas Mavericks, now Hornets), Cole Anthony (Orlando Magic) and Aaron Nesmith (Indiana Pacers),

Deals must be signed before the end of the day, October 21.

Current salary: $5.7 million
2025 cap hold: $17.1 million
Realistic floor: $10 million (all figures here and below are starting salaries)
Realistic ceiling: $16 million
Best comp: Avdija
Market value: $14.1 million

Just as the Wizards extended Avdija last year to a friendly contract, turning him into a trade piece, so too may Washington pay Kispert. The key will be finding the correct number, likely one below his $17.1 million cap hold.

Kispert's role dipped last year from 28.3 minutes per game in 2022-23 to 25.8. He still climbed from 11.1 points to 13.4 a game, though his efficiency from three-point range dropped from 42.4 percent to 38.3.

Of all the players on this list, Kispert is probably the biggest coin flip on getting a deal done. The Wizards can afford to wait but may extend to trade him eventually.

Current salary: $4.0 million
2025 cap hold: $12.1 million
Realistic floor: $14.1 million
Realistic ceiling: $200 million
Best comp: Avdija (different positions, but arguably similar situations looking to earn on rebuilding teams)
Market value: $17.5 million

Thomas is one of the league's more talented scorers, but he's a polarizing player. Some executives wonder if he's empty calories, putting up numbers on a bad team. Others think he could fill a role similar to Malik Monk's in Sacramento last year with the Kings.

With his low cap hold and the Nets looking like the king of cap room this summer (approximately $56.4 million with Thomas' cap hold), a deal probably wait until next summer.

Current salary: $8.4 million
2025 cap hold: $25.1 million
Realistic floor: $18.0 million
Realistic ceiling: $25.0 million
Best comp: Tyler Herro, Anfernee Simons, RJ Barrett, Jordan Poole from the 2022 offseason
Market value: $22.0 million

The good news for Giddey is he got out of Oklahoma City since the Thunder weren't inclined to pay him. The bad is that he landed with the Bulls, and they have a reputation for conservative spending.

Giddey may get an extension done before the season, but the odds seem higher that the Bulls will wait until next summer and try to force him to get an offer sheet. A compromise ahead of that would be best for both sides, but Giddey may need to play well this season first to earn from Chicago.

Current salary: $9.1 million
2025 cap hold: $27.5 million
Realistic floor: $23.5 million
Realistic ceiling: $28.5 million
Best comp: Vassell/McDaniels
Market value: $25.0 million

Suggs was a significant reason the Magic returned to the playoffs. He's a tenacious defender who has gradually become a reliable outside shooter.

Orlando will probably pay him, but the timing will depend on the number. The franchise may be willing to wait if Suggs asks for more than they have budgeted (considering they just paid Franz Wagner and need to extend Paolo Banchero next summer).

Current salary: $7.6 million
2025 cap hold: $22.9 million
Realistic floor: $25.0 million
Realistic ceiling: $29.0 million
Best comp: Vassell/McDaniels
Market value: $27.0 million

The Warriors' marriage with Kuminga has been awkward. The team had such a clear identity around Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and other veterans that Kuminga's development took a backseat.

Now that Thompson is off to the Dallas Mavericks, Kuminga may be a fixture in Golden State, but the team may be hesitant to overpay too quickly. Given the scarcity of teams with spending power next season, look for the Warriors to wait until July—unless Kuminga is willing to take a little bit less to get a deal done.

Current salary: $5.2 million
2025 cap hold: $15.5 million
Realistic floor: $26.0 million
Realistic ceiling: $30.0 million
Best comp: Vassell/McDaniels
Market value: $28.5 million

Murphy has good size and, as a career 39.2 percent three-point shooter, has fans throughout the league. The Pelicans may feel compelled to choose between Brandon Ingram and Murphy, and many competing executives believe they reinvest in Murphy.

What that means for Ingram (perhaps a trade) remains to be seen, but Murphy and New Orleans should find a workable deal next month.

Current salary: $4.5 million
2025 cap hold: $13.5 million
Realistic floor: $27.5 million
Realistic ceiling: $32.5 million
Best comp: Vassell/McDaniels to Bane
Market value: $30 million

While Johnson and the Hawks haven't done much winning in recent years, he's emerged as a young piece to build around. Competing executives are intrigued but expect him to stay with the Hawks on a lucrative new deal.

Even though very few teams have spending power in 2025, Johnson is likely to lock in a healthy deal in Atlanta before the season.

Current salary: $12.5 million
2025 cap hold: $37.4 million
Realistic floor: $28.5 million
Realistic ceiling: $38.7 million
Best comp: Initially, the range seemed to be Vassell/McDaniels to Bane, but with Cade Cunningham and Franz Wagner getting maxed, perhaps max?
Market value: $38.7 million

Green hasn't shown he can be the best player on a playoff team, but neither has LaMelo Ball or Cunningham, yet they both got max deals. If the Rockets want to use cap room next summer, Green will almost take up a max slot unsigned.

Houston could play this out, making Green seek an offer sheet. Unless the Washington Wizards or Brooklyn Nets are willing, Green may be dependent on the Rockets to pay more than the market can. This could turn ugly, or perhaps a healthy compromise can be reached before the deadline.

Current salary: $5.4 million
2025 cap hold: $16.3 million
Realistic floor: $38.6 million
Realistic ceiling: $46.4 million
Best comp: Şengün may have more potential as the Rockets' franchise star. If Green has a high comp, Şengün is higher and should be seeking the max.
Market value: $38.7 million

While Green has a high cap hold, Şengün's is low enough that the Rockets may choose to wait, but only if they decide not to pay Green. Fred VanVleet has a massive $44.9 million team option that, if declined, could help Houston get to roughly $45.2 million in cap space (including Şengün's cap hold).

If Şengün is a max player, he can only reach the $46.4 million by earning one of the league accolades (MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, All-NBA). Houston may choose to wait on Green and Şengün, deciding what to do with VanVleet and their roster around the draft in June.

Others may get deals. Sometimes, a team-friendly compromise can be forged, providing a player with a workable guaranteed multiyear income given how hard it can be to stick long-term in the NBA.

Some can be a mixed bag. Payton Pritchard may outplay his $30 million, four-year extension issued by the Boston Celtics last October. So far, Zeke Nnaji hasn't lived up to his $32 million over four with the Denver Nuggets.

The Portland Trail Blazers thought they were getting Nassir Little on an economical deal ($28 million, also four years) in 2022. Later, he was traded to the Phoenix Suns, who chose to waive and stretch his salary over seven seasons.

Keep an eye on Moses Moody (Warriors), Santi Aldama (Memphis Grizzlies), Quentin Grimes (Dallas Mavericks), Isaiah Jackson (Indiana Pacers) and Tre Mann (Charlotte Hornets). Perhaps one or two will get a deal done before the October deadline.

Email Eric Pincus at eric.pincus@gmail.com and follow him on X/Twitter @EricPincus.