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538 North Carolina story
538 North Carolina story
How Democrats could finally win North Carolina in 2024
3 hours ago
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3 hours ago

How Democrats could finally win North Carolina in 2024

Our first deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.
3 hours ago
538 North Carolina story
September 18

Progressive organizations were forced to play defense in the 2024 primaries

But progressive candidates still won most of the open races they ran in.
September 18
538 tracked how candidates endorsed by major progressive groups did in 2024 Democratic primaries.
September 18

Is the gender gap growing? | 538 Politics podcast

538's Galen Druke and The New York Times's Ruth Igielnik discuss how young women are more liberal and what that means for the future electorate.
September 18
538's Galen Druke and The New York Times's Ruth Igielnik discuss how young women are more liberal and what that means for the future electorate.
September 18

Does the Taylor Swift effect include voting? | 538 Politics podcast

The New York Times's Ruth Igielnik discusses how Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Kamala Harris has affected voter registration and the presidential race.
September 18
The New York Times's Ruth Igielnik discusses how Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Kamala Harris has affected voter registration and the presidential race.
September 18

What do voters think about political violence? | 538 Politics podcast

538's Galen Druke and The New York Times's Ruth Igielnik talk about the percentage of Americans open to a variety of manifestations, from protesting to more serious violence.
September 18
538's Galen Druke and The New York Times's Ruth Igielnik talk about the percentage of Americans open to a variety of manifestations, from protesting to more serious violence.
September 17

Make your picks on the 2024 Interactive Electoral Map

ABC News Chief Washington Correspondent Jonathan Karl explains how to make your predictions on the 2024 presidential race.
September 17
ABC News Chief Washington Correspondent Jonathan Karl explains how to make your predictions on the 2024 presidential race.
September 17

Polls show Harris gaining after the presidential debate

She's up to a 61-in-100 chance of winning, per the 538 forecast.
September 17
Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaking at the Congressional Black Caucus Foundation's Phoenix Awards Dinner in Washington, Sept. 14, 2024.
September 17

Pro-Israel groups spent big to oust two Squad members in primaries

But they didn't splash cash to oppose all high-profile progressives.
September 17
Pro-Israel groups spent big on Democratic primaries in 2024, including to oppose Squad members Jamaal Bowman and Cori Bush.
September 16

How to read political polls in 2024

Not all polls are created equal. Here's 538's guide to interpreting them.
September 16
538's guide for how to interpret polls.
September 13

Trump endorsed more Republicans in 2024 than ever before

The former president has taken over the traditional GOP endorsement apparatus.
September 13
Former President Donald Trump embraces Arizona Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake at a campaign rally, Oct. 9, 2022, in Mesa, Ariz.
September 12

How Taylor Swift's endorsement of Harris could change the election end game

Swift’s fans largely lean Democratic, but her support could boost engagement.
September 12
Pop star Taylor Swift endorsed Kamala Harris for president and encouraged fans to register to vote on Tuesday, Sept. 10.
September 11

Early polls say Harris won the presidential debate

But it’s unclear how much, or whether, it will shift the race.
September 11
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump attend a presidential debate in Philadelphia, Sept. 10, 2024.
September 11

Why abortion was a bigger issue in the Harris-Trump debate | 538 Politics podcast

The 538 crew discusses how the issue of reproductive rights played a bigger role in the Harris-Trump debate compared to the previous debate with Trump and Biden.
September 11
Why abortion was a bigger issue in the Harris-Trump debate | 538 Politics podcast
September 11

How did the candidates perform at the debate? | 538 Politics podcast

ABC News politics reporter Brittany Shepherd shares insight into what surrogates said about the candidates' performance in the spin room after the debate.
September 11
How did the candidates perform at the debate? | 538 Politics podcast
September 11

Do Americans know Kamala Harris better after the debate? | 538 Politics podcast

538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss whether Kamala Harris was able to define herself to Americans during the debate.
September 11
Do Americans know Kamala Harris better after the debate? | 538 Politics podcast
September 10

What polling says about key voting groups in the 2024 election

The 538 team discusses what polling reveals about young, older and first-time voters ahead of the November election.
September 10
The 538 team discusses what polling reveals about young, older and first-time voters ahead of the November election.
September 10

What does economic data reveal about the November election? | 538 Politics Podcast

538's Galen Druke and Geoffrey Skelley discuss the role economic sentiment could play in the 2024 presidential election.
September 10
538's Galen Druke and Geoffrey Skelley discuss the role economic sentiment could play in the 2024 presidential election.
September 10

6 primaries to watch in New Hampshire and Delaware

Both states pick their next governors this year.
September 10
Former Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire speaks at a campaign rally in Gilford, N.H., Sept. 22, 2020/New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate Chuck Morse speaks during a debate in Henniker, N.H., Sept. 7, 2022.
September 09

What the polls say ahead of the Harris-Trump presidential debate

Americans think Harris will win, but she has ground to make up on key issues.
September 09
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will face off in their first head-to-head presidential debate on Sept. 10.
September 09

Customize our 2024 presidential election forecast

Pick the winner in a state to see how 538's presidential forecast would change.
September 09
See how 538's presidential forecast would change if Harris or Trump win a specific state.
September 07

What does the upcoming presidential debate mean for Harris? | 538 Politics Podcast

538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss the importance of Kamala Harris’s first presidential debate.
September 07
538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss the importance of Kamala Harris’s first presidential debate.
September 07

3 potential sources of polling error in the 2024 election | 538 Politics Podcast

538's Galen Druke speaks with Ruth Igielnik of The New York Times about potential sources of error in polling.
September 07
538's Galen Druke speaks with Ruth Igielnik of The New York Times about potential sources of error in polling.
September 06

The 2024 voting landscape is a recipe for confusion

High turnout and new voting rules could cause problems at the polls in November.
September 06
People wait in line for early voting for the midterm elections at Ponce De Leon Library on Nov. 4, 2022 in Atlanta.
September 05

Can a smartphone app conduct political polls?

We clear up confusion over ActiVote, a prolific pollster with unique methods.
September 05
ActiVote is a voter-education tool that also conducts polls via its smartphone app.
September 04

What issues are the most important to voters heading into November?

538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich talk with Ruth Igielnik of The New York Times about what issues are important to voters and which ones will become hot topics during election season.
September 04
538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich talk with Ruth Igielnik of The New York Times about what issues are important to voters and which ones will become hot topics during election season.
September 04

How is Harris polling compared to Biden's 2020 performance? | 538 Politics Podcast

Ruth Igielnik of The New York Times talks about how Kamala Harris is performing among swing states and demographic groups.
September 04
Ruth Igielnik of The New York Times talks about how Kamala Harris is performing among swing states and demographic groups.
September 04

Harris's candidacy has caused a surge in voter enthusiasm | 538 Politics Podcast

538's Galen Druke speaks with Ruth Igielnik of The New York Times about how voter enthusiasm has shifted since Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee.
September 04
538's Galen Druke speaks with Ruth Igielnik of The New York Times about how voter enthusiasm has shifted since Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee.
September 04

Can you guess how Americans feel about Harris's platform?

Test your knowledge of what the public thinks about the VP’s policies.
September 04
How popular are Vice President Kamala Harris and her policy positions?
September 03

Is the Democratic Party a strong party?

Democrats' ouster of Biden shows political parties may still have some muscle.
September 03
Vice President Kamala Harris officially accepts the presidential nomination at the Democratic National Convention on Aug. 22, 2024.
August 30

Harris got a polling bounce before her convention, not after

Trump got a small boost after the RNC, but Harris's candidacy reset the race.
August 30
Vice President Kamala Harris's position in the polls has remained steady since the Democratic National Convention
August 30

How the latest economic shifts could affect the presidential race

538's Galen Druke and Jeanna Smialek from The New York Times talk about potential economic changes that could impact how people vote in the 2024 presidential election.
August 30
538's Galen Druke and Jeanna Smialek from The New York Times talk about potential economic changes that could impact how people vote in the 2024 presidential election.
August 30

How are Harris and Trump talking about the economy? | 538 Politics Podcast

Jeanna Smialek from The New York Times discusses how Democrats and Republicans are tackling issues like taxes and more on the campaign trail.
August 30
Jeanna Smialek from The New York Times discusses how Democrats and Republicans are tackling issues like taxes and more on the campaign trail.
August 30

Economists are optimistic about the health of the economy | 538 Politics Podcast

538's Galen Druke speaks with Jeanna Smialek from The New York Times about economic sentiment data leading up to the 2024 presidential election.
August 30
538's Galen Druke speaks with Jeanna Smialek from The New York Times about economic sentiment data leading up to the 2024 presidential election.
August 27

What can Washington state's primary tell us about November? | 538 Politics Podcast

538's Galen Druke and Geoffrey Skelley talk about how Washington state's primary results could be an indication of a shift toward Democrats in the national House vote.
August 27
538's Galen Druke and Geoffrey Skelley talk about how Washington state's primary results could be an indication of a shift toward Democrats in the national House vote.
August 27

Can RFK Jr. win a contingent election? | 538 Politics Podcast

The 538 team discusses the likelihood of independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. winning a contingent election, following his exit from the 2024 presidential race.
August 27
The 538 team discusses the likelihood of independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. winning a contingent election, following his exit from the 2024 presidential race.
August 27

How public opinion has changed from previous elections | 538 Politics Podcast

538's Galen Druke and Geoffrey Skelley discuss Vice President Kamala Harris's differences from Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign.
August 27
538's Galen Druke and Geoffrey Skelley discuss Vice President Kamala Harris's differences from Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign.
August 23

Harris says she will 'fight for America's future' on final night of the DNC | 538

The crew reacts to the final night of the Democratic National Convention.
August 23
The crew reacts to the final night of the Democratic National Convention.
August 21

Chicago's young voters talk 2024 presidential election at the DNC

538 senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich speaks with three young voters from Chicago as the 2024 Democratic National Convention takes place.
August 21
Chicago's young voters voice their opinion on 2024 presidential election
August 21

The Obamas dominate night 2 of the DNC | 538 Politics Podcast

The crew reacts to night two of the Democratic National Convention
August 21
The Obamas dominate night 2 of the DNC | 538 Politics Podcast
August 19

Do voters know what Harris stands for? | 538 Politics Podcast

538's Galen Druke discusses Harris' policy positions, or the lack thereof, with senior elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley, and whether this could be an advantage for her.
August 19
Do voters know what Harris stands for? | 538 Politics Podcast
August 19

How much influence does Harris have on Biden's policies? | 538 Politics Podcast

538 senior elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley talks to Galen Druke about how Kamala Harris is set to establish her own presence outside of President Joe Biden as the 2024 DNC begins.
August 19
How much influence does Harris have on Biden's policies?

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