Talk:Paul the Octopus

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A fact from Paul the Octopus appeared on Wikipedia's Main Page in the Did you know column on 11 July 2010 (check views). The text of the entry was as follows: Did you know... that Paul the Octopus (pictured) predicts Spain winning the World Cup today, while Mani the Parakeet tips a victory by the Netherlands? A record of the entry may be seen at Wikipedia:Recent additions/2010/July.

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Should the article use phrasing referring to the events as predictions, for example "Paul's predictions were designed [...]" and "These predictions were correct [...]"? Some guy (talk) 06:41, 31 October 2010 (UTC)[reply]

• No, not exclusively: There ought to be at least some discussion as per Prediction#Vision and prophecy and Divination. Second-hand assumptions of what is "tongue-in cheek" need to be put aside - some newpaper readers may well believe this is prediction, even some newpaper editors? It seems ironic that any encyclopedia has to report events on the basis of tabloid headlines where some element of belief is involved. Wikipedia articles usually state "it was reported that" or "it was claimed that" or using `sceptical quotes'. I think this case may be more problematic, however, as the accepted popular use of the word of "prediction" is rather wide and rather fluid. Narrower terms, such as cleromancy, should at least appear somewhere in this article? But what has been done for other oracular animals? Martinevans123 (talk) 09:15, 31 October 2010 (UTC)[reply]

• Better to avoid using the word predicted, unless it is used as in phrases like "understood to have predicted", or used with scare quotes, or unless the word predict is very carefully defined in the intro with a link to Divination and any other relevant articles. I would argue that this article is one of the extremely rare occasions where we should use the 5th Pillar: "Wikipedia does not have firm rules" and "the spirit of the rule trumps the letter of the rule". Either that or the article is doing more harm than good, appearing to endorse supernaturalism and increase scientific ignorance in readers who don't understand that the context is supposed to be humorous. By the way, I was the editor who added in:

"Some sources indirectly expressed doubt about the octopus' abilities.BBC News, when they reported this news story, used scare quotes when describing the abilities of the octopus: "psychic",^[1] "prophesy".^[2] Reuters also used scare quotes: "oracle octopus".^[3]"

There are additional similar sources that can be added. This paragraph was reverted by User:John, who seemed to strongly oppose its inclusion for reasons that I don't understand, since it was properly sourced (see talk page archive under the heading: Mention of use of scare quotes by journalism sources). I reinstated it some time later. Invertzoo (talk) 14:51, 31 October 2010 (UTC)[reply]

• See WP:V and extensive discussion in the archives. We follow the sources, and if we need to balance we do it by finding other sources, not by using scare quotes or weasel words. --John (talk) 15:36, 31 October 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Um, are these "other sources" real or hypothetical? I don't think you'll find many - mainstream editors either "joined in" with the joke or did not bother to report? Martinevans123 (talk) 19:15, 31 October 2010 (UTC)[reply]

The absence of sources with a particular POV is a good indicator that Wikipedia should not report that POV. If on the other hand sources can be found supporting what you want us to say, I am all for adding it. --John (talk) 21:06, 31 October 2010 (UTC)[reply]

The three of us have already debated this above; let's try to wait for some more outside opinion. Some guy (talk) 20:32, 31 October 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Comment I think we have to differentiate between a newspaper article and an encyclopedia article. Our WP:RS and WP:V policies were not meant to withstand tongue-in-cheek news articles such as this one. When a reliable source reports a cute story in a tongue-in-cheek fashion, translating it into an encyclopedic article is very tricky because an encyclopedia is not supposed to accommodate "cute" or "tongue-in-cheek". The solution here is to emulate the reports of the more serious news organisations like the BBC and qualify the predictions by adding quotes. Otherwise we run the risk of turning a good chunk of Wikipedia into a tabloid-type almanak. Dr.K. ^{λogosπraxis} 23:35, 31 October 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Comment. Since the article has extended explanation of "Paul's apparent success", I don't think any reader is going to come away with the impression that Paul really was either divinely inspired or a soccer tout. So putting uses of "predict[ion]" in scare quotes or prefacing them with disclaimers is unnecessary, and makes it read badly.

This might be worth adding somewhere:

"Did Paul (RIP) Have Skill?"

First, did Paul have predictive skill? That is to ask, were his picks better than those that would have been made at the time by a naive forecasting methodology?

The answer is yes. Paul had skill. ...

—WWoods (talk) 19:36, 1 November 2010 (UTC)[reply]

That operates under the assumption people read the whole article, but the lead needs to accurately summarize the whole article. I don't think it's appropriate to say he's predicting things in the lead, and then why he really wasn't predicting things later on. Also, blogs are not generally usable as sources. Some guy (talk) 20:07, 1 November 2010 (UTC)[reply]

• OK to use in some cases: I find that I'm not very sympathetic to either of the extreme positions here. Some guy's claim that "prediction" inherently supports a mystic interpretation seems a bit excessive to me. Given that the entire article is about an octopus that supposedly predicts the outcome of soccer matches, complete avoidance of the word "predict" would be awkward. I don't think anyone would come away from the article in its current form with the impression that octopuses have precognitive powers, despite the current use of "predict". On the other hand, John's claim that "predict" is required for conformance to sources just seems bizarre. In quotations, sure; however, original writing for the article can use any reasonable and nontendentious English terms, e.g., "selections" or "choices". "Predictions" is probably best avoided, but in some contexts it will be the only word that fits smoothly. NillaGoon (talk) 23:47, 2 November 2010 (UTC)[reply]

I wanted to say that I approve of NillaGoon's suggestion that we could use words such as "selection" or "choice" most of the time, it is after all, a simple food choice the octopus was making. If in some parallel universe a super-intelligent octopus wanted to express some sort of bizarre preference for one football team or flag over another, no food would need to be involved at all, the octopus could simply sit in the box which had the flag on it that he preferred. The word <predict> tend to imply a level of mentation that is simply not applicable to any invertebrate animal, and to very few vertebrate animals. The important thing to consider here is that journalists all over the world reported this story tongue-in-cheek for entertainment purposes; they are free to do that, as journalism allows for such light-hearted nonsense. That does not mean that as an encyclopedia we have to report the same thing on our pages as if we considered it to be a serious story. That's just not appropriate, despite the NPOV and Verifiability guidelines. Invertzoo (talk) 20:43, 7 November 2010 (UTC)[reply]

I like your point about octopus mentation, but I wonder if it doesn't apply just as well to "select" and "choose" as it does to "predict". All these words imply that some kind of cognitive process is going on. But more likely, Paul was just following the smell of a random mussel. Who knows if he was even aware that multiple mussels were available?

If you wanted to be truly rigorous and neutral, you'd have to stick with something like "the soccer team associated with the mussel first eaten by Paul" rather than "Paul's selection", and that just sounds tortured. "Predicted" really isn't SO much worse than "selected" or "chose"... NillaGoon (talk) 00:56, 8 November 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Sir, ma'am, or goon, I take offense to your underestimation of Paul's intelligence. see Octopus#Intelligence. Paul was most definitely making a "choice" between mussels but not (consciously) "predicting" anything as he was never taught the gentleman's game of football, which in itself is a tragedy. Spacexplosion^[talk] 17:39, 8 November 2010 (UTC)[reply]

It's true, it's true -- I'm a notorious misunderestimator of octopus intelligence. Even so, one can be quite intelligent and yet unaware of all one's options. How can you be sure that Paul was aware of both mussels and made a cognitive choice between them? Isn't that purely conjecture? NillaGoon (talk) 00:53, 9 November 2010 (UTC)[reply]

I'm pretty sure that in some cases he chose the second box he touched, meaning that he passed up one mussel for the other. I'd have to go find the full-length videos to make sure. Spacexplosion^[talk] 20:33, 9 November 2010 (UTC)[reply]

• Use sparingly, but no scare quotes: Currently there are 54 instances of "predict" in the article. My opinion is that it would improve the writing as well as compromise on this issue to vary the wording. I would suggest changing the first example in this RfC to "Paul's selections" and keeping the second example as is. Spacexplosion^[talk] 00:06, 9 November 2010 (UTC)[reply]

How do you feel about "Paul became internationally famous for correctly predicting the winner of [...]"? Some guy (talk) 10:39, 9 November 2010 (UTC)[reply]

I have answered you boldly[1]. Spacexplosion^[talk] 20:21, 9 November 2010 (UTC)[reply]

I like, I like...except the first paragraph, which reads weirdly now. I gather that some editors are dead set against all scare quotes, but "Paul became internationally famous for correctly 'predicting' the winner..." seems fine to me. NillaGoon (talk) 22:06, 9 November 2010 (UTC)[reply]

It reads a little oddly but but it's definitely better. Some guy (talk) 22:12, 9 November 2010 (UTC)[reply]

How about this version? My intention was to keep Spacexplosion's adjustments but make it flow a bit better. NillaGoon (talk) 00:03, 10 November 2010 (UTC)[reply]

A definite improvement. Thanks! Some guy (talk) 00:45, 10 November 2010 (UTC)[reply]

I agree. Invertzoo (talk) 14:33, 12 November 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Given the octopus' amazing ability to camouflage itself, I was surprised to see it described as "almost certainly" colour-blind. I was less surprised to see the Citation is for Cuttlefish, not octopus ! OK - research shows they are pretty similar. Octopii beat the chameleon at its own game - they change shape and even texture, not just colour. [2] LOL - that search finds several informal sources that say it's colour-blind ! Maybe we can find a better citation ? [3] Some think it detects colour by touch ! Perhaps with surface receptors like the Nautilus, but using a contact print not pinhole camera ? Cephalopod Crypsis says it matches a photograph or through glass, but with less 'depth' than on a 3D surface ! Given that they can even produce polarization patterns that are almost invisible to us, I suspect that they can see colour, even though they do not use colour sense mechanisms that we recognise and understand, and do not always co-operate in experiments. However, I leave it to the experts ! --195.137.93.171 (talk) 18:27, 7 January 2011 (UTC)[reply]

The article currently says José Mérida, a data analyst from Guatemala City, used a coin tossing model to calculate that only 178 individuals are needed to have someone correctly predict all the winners from a series of 8 matches. That, in itself, is false. It's absolutely possible to have 178, 180 or 200 people trying and not successfully getting a correct prediction. Even a million people in a row could fail, although that's very unlikely. What the data analyst probably said (and I can't read the source that is referred) is that the likelihood of at least one person getting it right is 50 percent or larger with 178 people trying. It would be nice if someone with a grasp of the source could correct this.--134.130.4.242 (talk) 20:20, 10 January 2011 (UTC)[reply]

The source says: Solo se necesitan 178 personas eligiendo al azar para que alguna acierte una quiniela de ocho partidos la mayoría de veces. Posting it here so that someone who knows the language may translate it. And the part of the source that is being used is an opinion piece from the "Letters" section, it seems to me. Does that count as a reliable source? --Joshua Issac (talk) 00:50, 10 March 2011 (UTC)[reply]

The "Life" section contains a sentence which begins, "According to DPA...". I'm guessing that DPA refers to Deutsche Presse-Agentur, so I have added a link, as it is not a well known acronym. If this is not the right DPA, please switch the link to point to the right one. If the link is thought to be excessive, I suggest changing the abbreviation to the full text "According to (the?) Deutsche Presse-Agentur..." Eigenbanana (talk) 12:28, 1 March 2011 (UTC)[reply]

I had a go at merging Paul II (octopus) into Paul the Octopus, as per the AfD. I think for consistency Ollie the Octopus should be blanked, redirected and merged in the same way. I'll wait a few days for anyone to dissent. Spacexplosion^[talk] 16:09, 24 June 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Quite agree, with both. Do you think that the FIFA fruit flies should go in Oracular animal? Thanks. Martinevans123 (talk) 16:24, 24 June 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Have now added them at Oracular animal. But I was expecting to see more there, indeed more than are included here. Where else could they be? Martinevans123 (talk) 17:31, 26 June 2011 (UTC)[reply]

OK, please remove that Euro 2008. table.

It is simple - it was not Paul the Octopus - as it is written in the text. Why making contradictions?