The Red Envelope: ‘Two Popes,’ One Oscar?

Welcome to the Red Envelope, a weekly series focused on Netflix’s forthcoming domination of the 92nd Academy Awards.

What does influence over awards season really look like? The answer might be found somewhere on Anthony McCarten’s laptop. The New Zealand-born screenwriter, novelist, and playwright is responsible for writing three of the last five best actor-winning performances at the Academy Awards: Eddie Redmayne as Stephen Hawking in The Theory of Everything, Gary Oldman as Winston Churchill in Darkest Hour, and Rami Malek as Freddie Mercury in Bohemian Rhapsody. (Yes, dear reader, it’s true: Rami Malek did win best actor at this year’s Oscars ceremony; we tried to block that out of our mind as well #justiceforjacksonmaine.)

As evident by those roles, McCarten has a type: historical figures to whom he gives some broad biopic fictions. The results of his scripts are usually mixed — Great Man movies that don’t really do much to interrogate the audiences’ preconceived notions about the subject — but that hasn’t stopped McCarten from finding awards-season success himself. All told, he’s landed three Oscar nominations: two as a producer on best picture nominees (The Theory of Everything and Darkest Hour) and one as a writer (for adapting The Theory of Everything). McCarten’s films, meanwhile, have totaled 16 nominations, including three for best picture.

Why is McCarten important this year? Because he’s the writer of Netflix’s The Two Popes, another bit of historical fiction that could find its lead actor standing among the five nominees come next month.

Every week between now and when the Oscar nominations are announced, Decider will investigate a Netflix awards contender and definitively establish its awards bona fides. Who’s watching? The Red Envelope.

This week: Fernando Meirelles’ The Two Popes, out on Netflix right now.

A BRIEF SYNOPSIS: Based on McCarten’s 2017 play, The Two Popes is about *checks notes* two popes. Pope Benedict XVI is played by Sir Anthony Hopkins; Pope Francis is played by Jonathan Pryce. The story imagines a meeting between Benedict, as he’s on the way out, and Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio (who later becomes Pope Francis), before he ascends to papal stature.

HOW MANY OSCAR NOMINATIONS WILL THE TWO POPES GET?

THE LOCKS: This entire piece so far has been about Anthony McCarten, but why stop now? In what feels like a somewhat soft year for adapted screenplay contenders, McCarten’s script for The Two Popes should stand comfortably among the five nominees in the category.

Also on solid ground? The movie itself. It might seem like a surprise — and perhaps it will be positioned as such come nominations morning — but ever since its splashy pundit debut at the Telluride Film Festival in August, The Two Popes has felt locked in as one of the best picture nominees. Chalk that up to its pedigree, the Netflix awards machine, and its structure. After all, what do Oscar voters love more than a two-hander about men with differences coming to some kind of uneasy understanding with each other? The only way The Two Popes would feel like more of a sure thing here is if it were called Pope Book.

THE POSSIBILITIES: Up until recently, it seemed like The Two Popes had at least two other major locks: its stars. But following misses at the Screen Actors Guild, Hopkins and Pryce could be left at the altar. Of the two, counterintuitively because the category is so strong, Pryce feels like the one with a better shot. As noted here previously, best actor is comically loaded and there are legitimately 12 men with a puncher’s’ chance at being nominated (deep breath: Joaquin Phoenix, Adam Driver, Antonio Banderas, Robert De Niro, Leonardo DiCaprio, Eddie Murphy, Christian Bale, Taron Egerton, Adam Sandler, George McKay, Paul Walter Hauser, and Pryce). But Pryce could be sitting in a good spot for an “upset” nod: he’s never been nominated before despite decades of lauded work and he’s working from a McCarten script.

Hopkins has fewer contenders to battle in best supporting actor, but the category itself is more fully formed. Brad Pitt, Al Pacino, Joe Pesci, and Tom Hanks seemingly have their nominations sewn up, leaving Hopkins to compete with Parasite star Song Kang Ho and Just Mercy actor Jamie Foxx for the final slot. Will Hopkins kiss enough babies to compete with the well-liked Foxx, a SAG nominee and ubiquitous circuit presence, and Kang Ho, who stars in one of the most beloved movies of the year?

Other categories: It’s unlikely Meirelles’ direction will be singled out, especially in a year where someone like Noah Baumbach or Greta Gerwig might be snubbed. But the film’s lush production design, by Phantom Thread‘s Mark Tildesley, could represent the production’s technical aspects across the board. Also, keep an eye on the editing category. If The Two Popes winds up being a strong best picture contender — stranger things have happened! — it could easily land a nod there.

FEARLESS FORECAST: Five nominations (Best Picture, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Actor for Jonathan Pryce, Best Production Design, Best Editing), zero wins.

Christopher Rosen is a writer and editor who lives in Maplewood, New Jersey and still thinks Lady Bird should have won best picture. Follow him on Twitter: @chrisjrosen

Stream The Two Popes on Netflix